A pennant race crystal ball
The close of baseball’s non-waiver trading period – often a moment reserved for deep introspection and the last of a warm beer, then the sound of affluent rosters galloping toward October – carries a slightly different aftertaste this summer.
Five days after general managers disengaged from their telephones, this was how round one of the playoffs looked:
Cincinnati Reds at San Diego Padres
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers
No Boston Red Sox. No L.A. teams. No Philadelphia Phillies or Chicago Cubs or St. Louis Cardinals.
(Fox execs weep.)
It could all change, and likely will, many times over. But before they did, several things came to mind.
The teams with home-field advantage ranked 29th (Padres), 11th (Braves), 25th (Rays) and 22nd (Rangers) in payroll.
Three of the four spend at least $20 million less on payroll than their projected first-round opponents (in one case, $150 million less).
While the Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Cardinals and Phillies had their go at the deadline, their motivations were driven at least in part by the less fortunate – marketwise – in their divisions.
The Yankees acquired Lance Berkman(notes), Austin Kearns(notes) and Kerry Wood(notes) to hold off the Rays. The Dodgers added four players (Ted Lilly(notes) won his L.A. debut Tuesday night) in hopes of recovering their huge deficit to the Padres. The Angels traded for Dan Haren(notes) and Alberto Callaspo(notes) to catch the bankrupt Rangers. The Cardinals sacrificed Ryan Ludwick(notes) for the pitching (Jake Westbrook(notes)) to match up with the Reds, and the Phillies pried Roy Oswalt(notes) out of Houston in the hopes of overtaking the Braves.
And, finally, outside a few smartly operated franchises, the fiscal anomalies probably won’t last. Payroll discrepancies generally show themselves over years, not weeks (unless you’re the Pittsburgh Pirates, in which case it might take hours.) “Over five or 10 years,” Rays GM Andrew Friedman said, “resources matter. As for this year, I don’t think it’s anything overarching but it’s interesting to look at.” Perhaps, Friedman added wryly, the short-term evidence would convince the rest of the American League East to spend less. But he doubted it.
The feeding of the beasts isn’t necessarily over with. The likes of Jose Guillen(notes), Manny Ramirez(notes), Adam LaRoche(notes), Brian Fuentes(notes), Cody Ross(notes), Trevor Hoffman(notes) and others – not Adam Dunn(notes), apparently, as the Lerners seem captivated by him – still could move, leading to more deadlines, more frenzies and more introspection.
Jed Hoyer, the Padres' rookie GM, had his share of drama-filled Julys as an assistant in Boston (the deadline-day, multiteam trades of Manny two years ago and Nomar Garciaparra(notes) in 2004, to mention two). This was his first in the big chair. Hoyer’s instinct was to add pitching, but not at a cost to his big-league roster, which had overachieved to lead the West and, he believed, deserved the chance to play it out. Instead, he surrounded Adrian Gonzalez(notes) with Miguel Tejada(notes) and Ludwick. The Padres' payroll was $3 million heavier – not insignificant in San Diego – and the lineup was deeper.
“I feel like my head, for two or three weeks, had been constantly on,” Hoyer said. “The end-of-July flurry, it’s fun but it’s mentally taxing. You spend all your waking – and some sleeping – hours thinking about and working on ways to make the team better.”
Then it starts over, as scores of players hit the waiver wire. With rosters reset and one-third of the season still out there, the deadline becomes part of the story – but not all of it. The Leaders:
AL West: Texas Rangers
At least partly on MLB’s dime, GM Jon Daniels buried the division in a four-week splurge on an ace (Cliff Lee(notes)), a starting catcher (Bengie Molina(notes)), a first baseman (Jorge Cantu(notes)) and a middle infielder (Cristian Guzman(notes)). The offense can be a monster, though Josh Hamilton’s(notes) achy knee, Ian Kinsler’s(notes) sore groin and Molina’s slump have cooled it lately. The Texas heat can be debilitating, and the Ryan-Cuban standoff could be distracting, but the Rangers have enough of a lead to coast to their first division title in 11 years.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
Ozzie’s crew is 38-18 since the end of May, and hoped to accessorize their lineup with a bat – preferably Adam Dunn. Kenny Williams will stay after it but likely will have to settle for a lesser presence. They’ll play nine more games against the closing Minnesota Twins, but have put together the end-to-end game that will keep them in the race through September. Critical players: Juan Pierre(notes) at the top of the order and Edwin Jackson(notes) at the back of the rotation.
AL East: Tampa Bay Rays
After a funky period, the Rays’ starters are back on their games, leading to a five-game swing at the top of the division. Like Williams in Chicago, Friedman had hoped for offensive help at the deadline but came away instead with a reliever (Chad Qualls(notes)). While they’re banged up in places (Ben Zobrist(notes), Carlos Pena(notes), Rafael Soriano(notes), Grant Balfour(notes)) and slumping in others (B.J. Upton(notes)), their pitching depth and uncanny defense continue to stabilize them. Watch for Jeremy Hellickson(notes) to be a presence – think David Price(notes) two years ago – down the stretch.
AL Wild Card: New York Yankees
All it took was a slight wobble from the Yankees to unsettle the AL East. They got numbers at the deadline – Berkman, Kearns, Wood – but not the sledgehammer that would have skewed their race with the Rays. Meantime, they’re waiting on health from Andy Pettitte(notes), precision from A.J. Burnett(notes), a reliable man for the eighth inning and No. 601 from Alex Rodriguez(notes). Often a second-half player, Derek Jeter(notes) at 36 is posting some of the lightest offensive numbers of his career. From Sept. 13 on, the Yankees play the Rays seven times and – just for fun – the Red Sox six times.
National League West: San Diego Padres
After getting swallowed whole in their own ballpark for years, the Padres put together a team that made sense at Petco Park. As a result, in another oddity to their season, they are a league-best 29-21 … on the road. While the San Francisco Giants are gaining fast, the Padres have won seven of eight games against them. The starting rotation is good, the back end of the bullpen is great, and the offense has shown some life in July and August. The Padres are 21-13 in one-run games, a trend they’ll likely have to continue. Middle infielder David Eckstein(notes) (calf) is due off the disabled list in about a week.
NL Central: Cincinnati Reds
Echoing a recurring line from “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid,” the Cardinals had to have been muttering, “Who are those guys?” With some help from an adequate pitching staff that found itself in July, the Reds have clubbed themselves to a meaningful August and September. Joey Votto(notes) is in league MVP and Triple Crown conversations, and the best month statistically over his career – September – is still to come. They’ll have to keep the starting rotation together, as that is the Cardinals’ clear advantage.
NL East: Atlanta Braves
The Braves can’t expect to saunter along with .500 ball and still hold off the Phillies. They could have used an impact bat in the outfield but didn’t seem to have much interest, and now they’ve lost Martin Prado(notes) (finger) for 10 days or so. Fortunately for them, Omar Infante(notes) can cover for him. The difference-makers over the next two months: Jair Jurrjens(notes), Chipper Jones(notes) and Troy Glaus(notes).
NL Wild Card: San Francisco Giants
No team has been better over the past month. The Giants are 21-5 since the Fourth of July, a month in which Buster Posey(notes) batted .412 with six home runs and 25 RBIs and helped maintain a pitching staff that is arguably the best in the league. Apparently, spare bats were tough to find at the deadline because the Giants didn’t get one, either. But the offense has found more pop as the season has gone on, thanks largely to Posey, Aubrey Huff(notes) and, lately, Andres Torres(notes). The Giants still lead with their rotation and a bullpen that gets the ball to Brian Wilson(notes), but the extra 41 runs they scored in July over June made the difference.
The AL contenders
Minnesota Twins: GM Bill Smith couldn’t bring himself to pay deadline prices for a starting pitcher, but the Twins got healthy again when the schedule was kind enough to lob them Baltimore, Kansas City and Seattle. They’ll need more from the guys who follow Carl Pavano(notes) and Francisco Liriano(notes).
Boston Red Sox: Now it’s all about getting healthy, and hoping enough of the season is left to do something with it. The Nation awaits Dustin Pedroia(notes), Jacoby Ellsbury(notes) and Jason Varitek(notes). The Kevin Youkilis(notes) injury could have been a season killer.
The NL contenders
St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals sighed and made the move for Westbrook, but at the cost of potential production in Ludwick and help for Matt Holliday(notes) and Albert Pujols(notes). The top end of Adam Wainwright(notes) and Chris Carpenter(notes), both of whom are accustomed to pitching well past 200 innings, bodes well for the Cardinals.
Philadelphia Phillies: Like the Red Sox, the Phillies have been severely hampered by injuries. Unlike the Red Sox, the Phillies do not share a division with the Yankees or Rays. The current afflicted: Ryan Howard(notes), Chase Utley(notes), Shane Victorino(notes), Jamie Moyer(notes).
AL long shots
Los Angeles Angels: The most un-Scioscia-like Angels team in years neither pitches nor defends well.
Oakland Athletics: Only the Seattle Mariners have hit fewer home runs in the league.
Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera(notes) alone isn’t enough to carry the banged-up, pitching-thin Tigers.
NL long shots
Colorado Rockies: The ever-streaky Rockies will need another one of those miracle Septembers.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Waiting on Manny, hoping the pitching holds up, the Dodgers are lacking – and lackadaisical – in too many places.
New York Mets: Carlos Beltran(notes) (.230, one home run, six RBIs) doesn’t have his legs under him yet, and the Mets – and Jerry Manuel – are running out of time.
Florida Marlins: They were two games under .500 with Fredi Gonzalez, are two games over .500 with Edwin Rodriguez. That solved everything.
