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March Madness picks, predictions for Thursday: Picking upsets on NCAA Tournament schedule

jeremy cluff, arizona republic
·6 min read

The NCAA Tournament is here and once again, there is potential for some upsets in the first round of March Madness.

Make that a lot of upsets. Which favored teams could be in trouble on Thursday, the first day of the NCAA Tournament?

Check out our picks and predictions for every NCAA Tournament first-round game on March 21. We're predicting quite a few upsets, with several double-digit seeds winning their first-round games.

Could Illinois, Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Kansas, South Carolina and Dayton all lose to lower seeds? March Madness could become March Insanity according to these picks, with Samford, Morehead State, Oregon, Nevada, McNeese and NC State potentially set to bust some NCAA Tournament brackets.

All times Pacific. Click on each game for more picks and predictions for that matchup.

Thursday's March Madness picks, predictions: Michigan State vs Mississippi State | Duquesne vs BYU | Akron vs Creighton | Long Beach State vs Arizona | Morehead State vs Illinois | Oregon vs South Carolina | Nevada vs Dayton | Oakland vs Kentucky | McNeese vs Gonzaga | South Dakota State vs Iowa State | Saint Peter's vs Tennessee | NC State vs Texas Tech | Samford vs Kansas | Drake vs Washington State | Wagner vs North Carolina | Colorado State vs Texas

Friday's March Madness picks, predictions: Northwestern vs Florida Atlantic | Colgate vs Baylor | UAB vs San Diego State | Western Kentucky vs Marquette | Stetson vs UConn | New Mexico vs Clemson | Yale vs Auburn | Texas A&M vs Nebraska | Vermont vs Duke | Charleston vs Alabama | Longwood vs Houston | James Madison vs Wisconsin | TCU vs Utah State | Grand Canyon vs Saint Mary's | Colorado vs Florida | Grambling State vs. Purdue

March Madness NCAA Tournament first-round game predictions for Thursday

The tournament opens up with one of the more intriguing games of the first round. Which MSU will win? Neither team looked particularly good down the stretch, but Mississippi State did beat Tennessee in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.

Prediction: Mississippi State 65, Michigan State 63

March Madness Thursday schedule: How to watch 16 NCAA Tournament games on TV today

Will Mississippi State basketball beat Michigan State in March Madness on Thursday?
Will Mississippi State basketball beat Michigan State in March Madness on Thursday?

The Dukes have won eight straight games, including the Atlantic 10 Tournament Championship, but the Cougars are better than any team Duquesne has faced this season.

Prediction: BYU 75, Duquesne 68

The Zips are the Mid-American Conference champions, but the Bluejays are still one of the best teams in the Big East, even after bowing out in the first round of the conference tournament.

Prediction: Creighton 70, Akron 61

Arizona has a history of early NCAA Tournament departures, but this isn't the same team that lost to Princeton in the first round as a No. 2 seed in 2023.

Prediction: Arizona 90, Long Beach State 72

March Madness predictions: ESPN game predictor's NCAA Tournament picks, win probabilities

We didn't think that Wagner would beat Howard in the First Four. We really don't think they have a chance to beat North Carolina in the first round.

Prediction: North Carolina 84, Wagner 63

Some double-digit seeds are going to shock their first round opponents. Morehead State could easily be one of those teams after playing very impressive basketball down the stretch in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Prediction: Morehead State 70, Illinois 69

Oregon has had a lot of injuries this season, but showed what it can do on its way to the Pac-12 Championship. It can beat South Carolina in the first round.

Prediction: Oregon 70, South Carolina 65

The Oregon Ducks are more than capable of beating South Carolina in the first round of March Madness on Thursday.
The Oregon Ducks are more than capable of beating South Carolina in the first round of March Madness on Thursday.

This is a tough one to predict. We're going to go with another double-digit seed getting the win in this one, although the odds say that it isn't an upset.

Prediction: Nevada 65, Dayton 61

We're tempted to go with the Rams after their dismantling of Virginia, but Texas is a lot better than Virginia and won't struggle to score like the Cavaliers did.

Prediction: Texas 78, Colorado State 74

Oakland is another double-digit seed to monitor in the first round after winning the Horizon League Tournament, but we don't think the Golden Grizzlies will be able to keep up with the Wildcats.

Prediction: Kentucky 90, Oakland 71

March Madness game odds: Point spreads, moneylines, over/unders for NCAA Tournament 2024

Will McNeese upset Gonzaga in the first round of March Madness on Thursday?
Will McNeese upset Gonzaga in the first round of March Madness on Thursday?

No. 12 seeds seem to have a knack for beating No. 5 seeds. 30-3 McNeese can beat Gonzaga. The Cowboys have impressed all season.

Prediction: McNeese 75, Gonzaga 72

Some thought the Cyclones deserved a No. 1 seed after they beat Houston in the Big 12 Tournament Championship. They shouldn't have a problem with the Jackrabbits.

Prediction: Iowa State 71, South Dakota State 57

Saint Peter's dazzled America a couple years back. This is not the same team and Tennessee got a wake-up call in the SEC Tournament.

Prediction: Tennessee 77, Saint Peter's 60

March Madness NCAA Tournament odds: Who is favored to win 2024 national championship?

North Carolina State is on a roll entering the NCAA Tournament. Will that equal a first round March Madness win on Thursday?
North Carolina State is on a roll entering the NCAA Tournament. Will that equal a first round March Madness win on Thursday?

NC State lost its final four regular season games before rallying to win five straight games on its way to the ACC Tournament title. This is a double-digit seed that could do some damage in the tournament.

Prediction: NC State 80, Texas Tech 75

We seem to be picking a lot of upsets on the first day of the tournament. Will this be another one? Samford is 29-5 and trending up. Kansas, racked with injuries, is trending down. Give us more madness.

Prediction: Samford 80, Kansas 74

Drake is another mid-major that could do some damage, but Washington State surprised in the Pac-12 this season and should be ready for the Bulldogs.

Prediction: Washington State 73, Drake 68

March Madness TV schedule: Television channels, streaming, how to watch NCAA Tournament

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Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Thursday March Madness NCAA Tournament game picks, predictions, upsets