Predicting the MLB season to come

From a year of milestones to a year of seismic shifts. The faces of baseball will be transformed in 2008 from the weathered and familiar – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Craig Biggio – to the fresh and stirring – Ryan Howard, Russell Martin, Hanley Ramirez and Erik Bedard, to name only a few from the dozens of rising stars.

Candidates for top awards have rarely been so plentiful. There is a new wave of power hitters and a crush of sparkling all-around offensive players. Fewer, it seems, are power arms, starting pitchers capable of consistently getting deep into games without everyone from ownership to the assistant trainer holding their breath.

Yet quality pitching is far from extinct. It’s just increasingly fragile, and far between.

All of which makes predicting individual awards a thorny undertaking. It’s not as if a fan, or a writer, or a general manager, for that matter, can’t locate a likely candidate to lead the league in batting, or become the MVP, or have a breakout season.

The choices are plentiful. The season, and the fun, is about to begin. And it starts with our forecast, notable not only for the names included, but for the inevitable ones left out:

CATEGORY	Tim Brown	Jeff Passan	Steve Henson
AL MVP	Alex Rodriguez, Yankees	Alex Rodriguez, Yankees	David Ortiz, Red Sox
Dark horse	Grady Sizemore, Indians	Victor Martinez, Indians	Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
NL MVP	Matt Holliday, Rockies	Chase Utley, Phillies	David Wright, Mets
Dark horse	Chipper Jones, Braves	Jeff Francoeur, Braves	Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
AL Cy Young	Justin Verlander, Tigers	Felix Hernandez, Mariners	Erik Bedard, Mariners
Dark horse	Felix Hernandez, Mariners	Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays	Scott Kazmir, Rays
NL Cy Young	Johan Santana, Mets	Johan Santana, Mets	Jake Peavy, Padres
Dark horse	Brad Penny, Dodgers	Ian Snell, Pirates	Matt Cain, Giants
AL Rookie/year	Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox	Evan Longoria, Rays	Clay Buchholz, Red Sox
Dark horse	Carlos Gomez, Twins	Jeff Clement, Mariners	Evan Longoria, Rays
NL Rookie/year	Geovany Soto, Cubs	Johnny Cueto, Reds	Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs
Dark horse	Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs	Manny Parra, Brewers	Chase Headley, Padres
AL HR leader	Alex Rodriguez, Yankees	Alex Rodriguez, Yankees	Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
Dark horse	Miguel Cabrera, Tigers	Nick Swisher, White Sox	Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
NL HR leader	Matt Holliday, Rockies	Ryan Howard, Phillies	Ryan Howard, Phillies
Dark horse	Ryan Braun, Brewers	Rick Ankiel, Cardinals	Adam Dunn, Reds
AL Batting champ	Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners	Robinson Cano, Yankees	Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners
Dark horse	David Ortiz, Red Sox	Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox	Carl Crawford, Rays
NL Batting champ	Chase Utley, Phillies	Hanley Ramirez, Marlins	Matt Holliday, Rockies
Dark horse	Todd Helton, Rockies	Nick Johnson, Nationals	James Loney, Dodgers
AL MVP-in-waiting	B.J. Upton, Rays	Evan Longoria, Rays	Grady Sizemore, Indians
NL MVP-in-waiting	Russell Martin, Dodgers	Ryan Zimmerman, Nats	Russell Martin, Dodgers
AL Cy Young-in-waiting	J. Chamberlain, Yankees	Justin Verlander, Tigers	D. Matsuzaka, Red Sox
NL Cy Young-in-waiting	Cole Hamels, Phillies	Matt Cain, Giants	Cole Hamels, Phillies
AL comeback player	Troy Percival, Rays	Brad Wilkerson, Mariners	Vernon Wells, Blue Jays
NL comeback player	Kerry Wood, Cubs	Andruw Jones, Dodgers	Matt Cain, Giants
AL breakout hitter	Daric Barton, A’s	Billy Butler, Royals	Adam Jones, Orioles
NL breakout hitter	Yunel Escobar, Braves	Jeremy Hermida, Florida	Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
AL breakout pitcher	Matt Garza, Rays	Phil Hughes, Yankees	Jon Lester, Red Sox
NL breakout pitcher	Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers	Chad Billingsley, Dodgers	Andrew Miller, Marlins
First manager fired	Ned Yost, Brewers	Ozzie Guillen, White Sox	John Gibbons, Blue Jays
First GM fired	Wayne Krivsky, Reds	Jim Hendry, Cubs	Wayne Krivsky, Reds
Bonds-O-Meter	7.62% returns	0% returns	18.3% returns