Predicting the MLB season to come
From a year of milestones to a year of seismic shifts. The faces of baseball will be transformed in 2008 from the weathered and familiar – Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Craig Biggio – to the fresh and stirring – Ryan Howard, Russell Martin, Hanley Ramirez and Erik Bedard, to name only a few from the dozens of rising stars.
Candidates for top awards have rarely been so plentiful. There is a new wave of power hitters and a crush of sparkling all-around offensive players. Fewer, it seems, are power arms, starting pitchers capable of consistently getting deep into games without everyone from ownership to the assistant trainer holding their breath.
Yet quality pitching is far from extinct. It's just increasingly fragile, and far between.
All of which makes predicting individual awards a thorny undertaking. It's not as if a fan, or a writer, or a general manager, for that matter, can't locate a likely candidate to lead the league in batting, or become the MVP, or have a breakout season.
The choices are plentiful. The season, and the fun, is about to begin. And it starts with our forecast, notable not only for the names included, but for the inevitable ones left out:
AL MVP | Alex Rodriguez, Yankees | Alex Rodriguez, Yankees | David Ortiz, Red Sox |
Dark horse | Grady Sizemore, Indians | Victor Martinez, Indians | Miguel Cabrera, Tigers |
NL MVP | Matt Holliday, Rockies | Chase Utley, Phillies | David Wright, Mets |
Dark horse | Chipper Jones, Braves | Jeff Francoeur, Braves | Adrian Gonzalez, Padres |
AL Cy Young | Justin Verlander, Tigers | Felix Hernandez, Mariners | Erik Bedard, Mariners |
Dark horse | Felix Hernandez, Mariners | Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays | Scott Kazmir, Rays |
NL Cy Young | Johan Santana, Mets | Johan Santana, Mets | Jake Peavy, Padres |
Dark horse | Brad Penny, Dodgers | Ian Snell, Pirates | Matt Cain, Giants |
AL Rookie/year | Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox | Evan Longoria, Rays | Clay Buchholz, Red Sox |
Dark horse | Carlos Gomez, Twins | Jeff Clement, Mariners | Evan Longoria, Rays |
NL Rookie/year | Geovany Soto, Cubs | Johnny Cueto, Reds | Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs |
Dark horse | Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs | Manny Parra, Brewers | Chase Headley, Padres |
AL HR leader | Alex Rodriguez, Yankees | Alex Rodriguez, Yankees | Alex Rodriguez, Yankees |
Dark horse | Miguel Cabrera, Tigers | Nick Swisher, White Sox | Miguel Cabrera, Tigers |
NL HR leader | Matt Holliday, Rockies | Ryan Howard, Phillies | Ryan Howard, Phillies |
Dark horse | Ryan Braun, Brewers | Rick Ankiel, Cardinals | Adam Dunn, Reds |
AL Batting champ | Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners | Robinson Cano, Yankees | Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners |
Dark horse | David Ortiz, Red Sox | Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox | Carl Crawford, Rays |
NL Batting champ | Chase Utley, Phillies | Hanley Ramirez, Marlins | Matt Holliday, Rockies |
Dark horse | Todd Helton, Rockies | Nick Johnson, Nationals | James Loney, Dodgers |
AL MVP-in-waiting | B.J. Upton, Rays | Evan Longoria, Rays | Grady Sizemore, Indians |
NL MVP-in-waiting | Russell Martin, Dodgers | Ryan Zimmerman, Nats | Russell Martin, Dodgers |
AL Cy Young-in-waiting | J. Chamberlain, Yankees | Justin Verlander, Tigers | D. Matsuzaka, Red Sox |
NL Cy Young-in-waiting | Cole Hamels, Phillies | Matt Cain, Giants | Cole Hamels, Phillies |
AL comeback player | Troy Percival, Rays | Brad Wilkerson, Mariners | Vernon Wells, Blue Jays |
NL comeback player | Kerry Wood, Cubs | Andruw Jones, Dodgers | Matt Cain, Giants |
AL breakout hitter | Daric Barton, A's | Billy Butler, Royals | Adam Jones, Orioles |
NL breakout hitter | Yunel Escobar, Braves | Jeremy Hermida, Florida | Justin Upton, Diamondbacks |
AL breakout pitcher | Matt Garza, Rays | Phil Hughes, Yankees | Jon Lester, Red Sox |
NL breakout pitcher | Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers | Chad Billingsley, Dodgers | Andrew Miller, Marlins |
First manager fired | Ned Yost, Brewers | Ozzie Guillen, White Sox | John Gibbons, Blue Jays |
First GM fired | Wayne Krivsky, Reds | Jim Hendry, Cubs | Wayne Krivsky, Reds |
Bonds-O-Meter | 7.62% returns | 0% returns | 18.3% returns |
