Second-half intrigue: Boys-Saints game looms

After another exciting, unpredictable first half of the season and with Super Bowl XLIV less than three months away, it's only appropriate that we consider 10 questions for the remainder of the campaign.

Here goes:

1. Which division leader should we trust the least?
Denver Broncos fans will think I'm hating on the Broncos, but that's not the case. The Broncos and coach Josh McDaniels have been a great story this season, but I just don't trust what I'm seeing. In particular, the limitations of the Broncos offense have been badly exposed the past two weeks against the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers (Denver scored a combined 10 offensive points in those two losses). Quarterback Kyle Orton(notes) has done a nice job most of this season, but he's simply too limited to beat good defensive teams when the Broncos can't run. Denver also has four pretty tough games on its schedule (San Diego Chargers, New York Giants at home; at Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles). That 6-0 start could quite easily become a 10-6 finish, if not worse.

2. Most important assistant coach of the second half?
While the Chargers have largely depended on their passing game the past two seasons, the defense has yet to consistently show up. Perhaps a glimpse of things to come was provided in the dramatic victory over the Giants on Sunday. The blitzes out of the 3-4 defense started to look much more like what the Chargers were doing in 2006. That's because defensive coordinator Ron Rivera, who had never run a 3-4 scheme before last season, finally appears to have a feel for how to call and mix blitzes for this defense. If Rivera's unit plays at a high level the rest of the way, San Diego is a legitimate threat to overtake Denver in the AFC West for a second straight year.

3. Biggest game of the second half?
Circle Dec. 19 on your calendar, when the New Orleans Saints host the Dallas Cowboys. If New Orleans beats the New England Patriots (Nov. 30) and Atlanta Falcons (Dec. 13), there's a very good chance that the Saints will be 13-0. With the Saints set to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers in the final two games, the Cowboys will be the last best hope to prevent the second 16-0 regular season finish in the past three years. By the way, the NFL is going to love that because the game is set to be carried by in-house organ NFL Network. In terms of going 19-0, New Orleans will be plenty vulnerable come playoff time, when the refs allow more contact by defenders against receivers.

4. Which team with a losing record is still a threat to make the playoffs?
The San Francisco 49ers' loss to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday was their most troubling game of the season. It came after the 49ers had lost two tough games to the Houston Texans and Indianapolis in back-to-back weeks. However, if the 49ers can get over the loss to the Titans, they have a team that is well-balanced while quarterback Alex Smith may finally be showing signs of life. The defense can be very good and the combination of running back Frank Gore(notes), tight end Vernon Davis(notes) and wide receiver Michael Crabtree(notes) could be outstanding over the second half. Throw in a relatively soft schedule (only two teams with winning records remain) and the 49ers still have a shot.

5. Which fan base has something to look forward to even if the playoffs are out of the question?
If you're a fan of the Titans, Bucs, Dolphins or Lions, the rest of the season is worth watching, even if there aren't many wins to be found. That's because all four of those teams have a quarterback in the lineup who is worth watching and important to the development of the team. Tennessee is hoping to salvage Vince Young(notes), the Dolphins have strong-armed Chad Henne(notes) winging it and the Lions and Bucs have rookies Matthew Stafford(notes) and Josh Freeman(notes). It's not always going to be pretty to watch, but all four have talent so making sure they develop is crucial.

6. Which fan base is going to get teased the worst in the second half?
In other words, which team will start to make a run in the second half, then fall apart at the moment of truth? Sadly, Rex Ryan and the New York Jets look like the best candidate and they have nobody but themselves to blame. Starting this Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the 4-4 Jets play only one team with a winning record (Patriots) during the next five weeks. Just as the Jets had a chance to be 6-2 at this point (they're kicking themselves for the two losses to Miami and one against Buffalo), they can easily emerge at 8-5 heading into the final three weeks. But the Jets finish with games against the Falcons, Colts and Bengals, and are led by a quarterback who doesn't know just how bad a bitter December wind can be in New York.

7. Most impactful rookie in the second half?
Minnesota receiver Percy Harvin(notes) has only scratched the surface of his immense ability in the first half of the season. The Vikings coaching staff has been working on all sorts of ways to get Harvin involved, be it as a kick returner or as a Wildcat quarterback. Look for all the work to pay off soon.

8. Which non-quarterback will have the biggest impact in the second half?
Pittsburgh running back Rashard Mendenhall(notes) has been huge since taking over as the starter. Not so much statistically, although his 155 yards on Monday night were certainly breathtaking. What Mendenhall will do is take pressure off quarterback Ben Roethlisberger(notes), who not surprisingly has been dominant over the five games Mendenhall has started. Mendenhall might not only help the Steelers repeat, but could help put Roethlisberger in the discussion for MVP.

Caldwell (right) and Peyton Manning(notes) have been a perfect combo so far.

(Jeff Curry/US Presswire)

9. Is this another year in which the Colts will lose early in the playoffs?
Sadly, yes. While there is no denying that the Colts and first-year coach Jim Caldwell have been impressive in the first half of the season on the way to an 8-0 start, the reality is that the team has dodged a number of bullets along the way and taken advantage of a soft schedule. Houston made two critical errors (a debatable fumble at the Indy goal line and a missed field goal at the end) to cost the Texans a chance to beat the Colts. Earlier, the Colts had to rally to beat the 49ers and Dolphins, and have beaten only two teams with a winning record (Cardinals and Texans). Throw in all the injuries in the secondary and you have a recipe for an early exit.

10. Finally, who makes the Super Bowl and who wins it?
As tempting as it is to pick New Orleans to not only make the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history and actually win it, the Saints will join New England in infamy as being able to go 16-0 in the regular season but failing to close the deal in the playoffs. The pick in the NFC is Minnesota. Yeah, I know you're sick of hearing about Brett Favre(notes). However, the fact is that the Vikings have the best balance of offense and defense in the NFC. Most important, they have the kind of pass rush and secondary to cause huge problems for the Saints (mark down Jared Allen(notes) for about three sacks right now). In the AFC, the only fear for the Steelers is whether they are peaking too early. Maybe, but coach Mike Tomlin has a unique feel for how to deal with the mental state of his team. He'll make whatever corrections are necessary along the way as he guides the Steelers to back-to-back titles and their seventh overall. After that, Tomlin is going to get one monster contract in the offseason.

Stupid play of the week: There were many candidates this week, including Giants coach Tom Coughlin for his decision to run on third-and-goal late in the fourth quarter instead of passing (subsequently settling for a field goal) in New York's eventual 21-20 loss to San Diego. Then there was Philadelphia coach Andy Reid's decision to kick a field goal late in his team's 20-16 loss to Dallas. New England escaped consideration by one second when Tom Brady's(notes) last-second pass in the first half against Miami fell incomplete with the narrowest amount of time left to get a field goal. Perhaps one of those should win based on the fact that all of them involved people who are paid to break down situational football. However, Tampa Bay safety Tanard Jackson(notes) wins the dubious honor because he is the latest player to screw up an end-of-game interception situation. With the Bucs up by 3 points with 52 seconds remaining and Green Bay out of timeouts, Jackson intercepted Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers(notes) and returned the ball 35 yards for a touchdown. Fun play, no doubt. However, if Jackson had simply fallen to the ground, the Bucs could have run one play, taken a knee and walked away from the game. Because Jackson scored, the Bucs had to go back out on the field for six more plays by the Packers. While some people will defend the move by saying Tampa Bay could have messed up the exchange as it was trying to take a knee, that's less likely as Green Bay scoring twice. Further, Jackson exposed his teammates to unnecessary injury. As we all learned from Marlon McCree(notes), just fall down.

Top five
1. New Orleans Saints (8-0): The one team that can afford to play careless right now.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2): Ben Roethlisberger is finally getting some real respect.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-0): Lots of injuries and they barely survived against Houston.
4. Minnesota Vikings (7-1): Do you think that Brett Favre enjoyed having a week off?
5. New England Patriots (6-2): They're good, but not quite great.

Bottom five
28. Washington Redskins (2-6): Chances are, not many teammates were broken up about Clinton Portis(notes) getting hurt.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (1-7): Give them credit, they play hard and they cut Larry Johnson(notes).
30. Cleveland Browns (1-7): Dear Randy Lerner, hire Mike Holmgren to coach – not just oversee.
31. St. Louis Rams (1-7): No quarterback solution on the horizon.
32. Detroit Lions (1-7): Why do fans rip on rookie quarterbacks? I don't get that.

This and that

• Don't expect former Kansas City running back Larry Johnson to be out of work long, though he won't assume the same role with a new team. According to a pair of front-office sources, three teams currently in the playoff hunt said they'd be interested in Johnson as a backup or short-yardage back. In fact, don't be surprised if the Eagles, Giants and Bengals take a long look at Johnson. The Eagles, in particular, are having problems with their short-yardage running game largely because of Brian Westbrook's(notes) continuing health problems and rookie LeSean McCoy's(notes) indecisiveness.

• By the way, to all those people who ridiculed my contention that the Chiefs should have traded Johnson before the 2007 season, consider this: Since his great back-to-back seasons of 2005 and 2006 (and since signing a six-year, $45 million contract that included $19 million guaranteed), Johnson has had 1,791 yards on 483 carries and scored eight touchdowns. In other words, he got more than $1 million guaranteed for every 100 yards or more than $2.3 million per touchdown. Oh yeah, and that money could have been used to keep Jared Allen.

• One final thought related to Johnson: While it's hard to take Johnson's side on anything, Kansas City coach Todd Haley might be smart to take some of Johnson's criticism to heart. Specifically, because Haley never played pro, college or even high school football, he might want to tone down on the open criticism of players. It's not that being a great football player is a prerequisite to coaching success (in fact, most former players don't even want to be coaches). However, Haley's explosive, highly caustic style doesn't sit well, especially when it's so constant.

• Cleveland coach Eric Mangini had some interesting quotes last week when he compared the current Browns to the 2000 Patriots, who went 5-11 before winning three of the next four Super Bowls. Nice try, Eric, but the 2000 Patriots didn't systematically get rid of all their best players (Ty Law(notes), Lawyer Milloy(notes), Tedy Bruschi(notes), Troy Brown(notes) and Willie McGinest(notes)) and actually worked to nurture a young quarterback (Tom Brady). By contrast, Mangini has eviscerated the Browns roster because he was unable to get along with star players such as Braylon Edwards(notes) and Kellen Winslow(notes). In fact, Mangini has shown that he can't get along with hardly anybody. His decision to toss George Kokinis to the curb last week has cemented the disgust other coaches and executives have with Mangini. Or as one former co-worker put it: "He's out all alone on Mangini Island." In other words, don't look for anybody to defend Mangini anytime soon.

• One more thing about Mangini. For the second time this season, he's pulling that absurd routine where he doesn't announce the starting quarterback, as if that creates some advantage. It doesn't and it didn't when Jeff Fisher of Tennessee did the same thing a couple of weeks ago when he made the switch to Vince Young. Said one coach: "It's the dumbest thing in the world. You think the other team isn't going to prepare for both quarterbacks [Derek Anderson(notes) and Brady Quinn(notes)]? Please. Just tell the team and get it over with. Stand up, say, 'Blah Blah is our quarterback, he's going to play good and we're going to win. Any questions? No, OK, now go do your job.' Instead of focusing on whoever you're playing, the team is focused on the whole quarterback deal. They start saying, 'You think it's this guy or that guy?' It's just dumb."

• This trend is hard to quantify, but the NFL needs to take heed: The idea that refs should refrain from blowing the whistle on plays to let the action play out is getting really dangerous. The purpose of the whistle is partly to control and protect the action of the game and, ultimately, to help players from getting hurt. However, the league has become too conscious of letting the action play out so as to avoid mistakes in officiating. That's understandable, but it has gone too far in recent weeks and somebody is going to get hurt.

• Some people expressed surprise at a report Sunday by ESPN that the Raiders are actually cooperating with the NFL in the investigation/evaluation of coach Tom Cable. Don't be surprised. The reason, a source familiar with the case said, is that Oakland owner Al Davis is hoping to gather enough information to fire Cable with cause at the end of the season so that Davis doesn't have to pay Cable.