AccuScore: Playoff shifts after week four
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning its division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here is the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2009 MLB season after four weeks of play.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
After the Baltimore Orioles went 0-6 from April 27 through May 4, it's understandable that every other team in their division actually improved their chances of making the playoffs. Toronto was the leader in the division and the entire league. The Blue Jays' 4-3 record was OK, but when you sweep a division rival (Baltimore) it has an extra impact on playoff chances.
The Kansas City Royals lead the AL Central and their 5-2 week helped them improve their chances of making the playoffs by nearly 5 percentage points. The AL Central is incredibly close with all teams bunched between 18 and 22 percent of winning the division. The White Sox start the week in Kansas City and Minnesota visits Detroit. Even though it is early in the season, it is important for home teams to win two of three games against division rivals if they want to keep their playoff chances strong.
The Angels had a 3-2 week, but with three road wins, including one over
they saw a nice +4.6 percent boost in playoff chances. There is still time for the Angels to get healthy and despite their 10-13 record, they still have the best chance of any AL West team of winning the division. The Angels were also helped by Oakland's 2-3 week.
AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 4 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
TEAM | APR 27 | MAY 4 | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
29.9% | 35.2% | 5.3% | 21.1% | |
Kansas City Royals | 21.2% | 26.0% | 4.8% | 20.6% |
35.8% | 40.4% | 4.6% | 36.8% | |
31.3% | 34.2% | 2.9% | 18.9% | |
31.8% | 34.7% | 2.9% | 19.3% | |
53.1% | 54.1% | 1.0% | 39.2% | |
27.9% | 28.2% | 0.3% | 24.2% | |
30.8% | 30.3% | -0.5% | 26.8% | |
25.0% | 23.0% | -2.0% | 18.5% | |
25.4% | 23.3% | -2.1% | 18.3% | |
29.5% | 26.9% | -2.6% | 21.7% | |
Baltimore Orioles | 7.8% | 3.5% | -4.3% | 1.4% |
30.9% | 25.8% | -5.1% | 20.8% | |
19.6% | 14.5% | -5.1% | 12.1% | |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Brewers may have dropped two of three to Arizona, but they still had a strong 5-2 week which included a sweep of division rival, Pittsburgh. Like Toronto in the American League, when you sweep a division rival it has more of an impact on improving playoff chances than a sweep over a non-division rival.
It was a competitive week in the NL West. Even though the San Francisco Giants were 4-2 their playoff chances actually slipped by -3.1 percentage points because the Dodgers went 5-2 with a sweep over a division rival, San Diego. Even though the Diamondbacks went 4-3, not as good as the Giants' 4-2, their playoff chances improved +2.4 percentage points because they had quality wins. With two road wins at Milwaukee and two against the Cubs, the Diamondbacks won two more games than they were expected to win.
The Padres were the big losers this week in the entire league with a 1-6 record and a -5.7 percentage point drop in playoff percentage.
NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 4 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
TEAM | APR 27 | MAY 4 | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
25.3% | 32.7% | 7.4% | 21.6% | |
52.9% | 58.8% | 5.9% | 52.6% | |
38.9% | 43.6% | 4.7% | 32.1% | |
37.9% | 42.2% | 4.3% | 37.4% | |
18.9% | 21.3% | 2.4% | 15.0% | |
37.9% | 39.1% | 1.2% | 26.9% | |
30.6% | 30.2% | -0.4% | 24.8% | |
8.3% | 7.8% | -0.5% | 5.2% | |
15.3% | 14.5% | -0.8% | 7.4% | |
28.9% | 27.3% | -1.6% | 21.4% | |
4.8% | 2.9% | -1.9% | 2.3% | |
9.6% | 7.5% | -2.1% | 4.1% | |
San Francisco Giants | 28.6% | 25.5% | -3.1% | 17.7% |
22.1% | 17.6% | -4.5% | 14.1% | |
20.1% | 14.7% | -5.4% | 8.0% | |
20.0% | 14.3% | -5.7% | 9.5% | |
OTHER TRENDS OF NOTE
At AccuScore.com we recommend using Side Value to make smart MLB plays. Last week we promoted a 9-0 record on Side Value predictions on New York Mets home games. This record improved to 12-0 this past week when AccuScore correctly all three games between the Marlins and Mets.
