AccuScore: Losing hope in Chicago

AccuScore provides baseball predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected starting lineups, baseball predictions are created by simulating each game of the season, one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. VisitAccuScore for weekly updates for all baseball and sports predictions.

American League

Adam Dunn may finally be losing some at-bats, but it may be too late.
(Getty Images)

Detroit picked up another two games on the Indians this week and opened up a full six-game lead on Chicago, as well. The Tigers used the week to jump 10.8 percentage points in the AccuScore projected standings to move to 92.6 percent likelihood of winning the AL Central. The White Sox finally called up prospect Dayan Viciedo(notes) to take some of Adam Dunn’s(notes) at-bats, but the move is probably a bit too late to have a meaningful positive impact. Carlos Quentin’s(notes) injury status also derails Chicago’s playoff hopes. The Sox now make the playoffs in just 4.8 percent of simulations. The Indians are now in third place in the real standings. Even with the acquisition of Jim Thome(notes), their lineup is currently more decimated by injuries than Chicago’s is. Cleveland is just 2.6 percent likely to win the division.

The Rangers allowed the Angels to get within a game of their division lead in the West, but Texas took two of three in their series to re-open a three-game lead. AccuScore computers still see Texas as the far superior team giving it a 94.4 percent chance of winning the division. The Los Angeles Angels did gain 3.2 percentage points but still have just a 5.6 percent chance of reaching the postseason. The Angels have defied the odds several times under manager Mike Scioscia, but it appears to be very long odds in 2011.

American League Weekly Review Playoff % Chance
Team 22-Aug 28-Aug % Diff Win Div
Detroit Tigers 81.8% 92.6% 10.8% 92.6%
Los Angeles Angels 2.6% 5.8% 3.2% 5.6%
Boston Red Sox 98.0% 99.6% 1.6% 79.7%
Tampa Bay Rays 3.1% 3.5% 0.4% 0.2%
Seattle Mariners 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Toronto Blue Jays 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Baltimore Orioles 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas City Royals 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Minnesota Twins 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland Athletics 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New York Yankees 98.9% 96.7% -2.2% 20.1%
Texas Rangers 97.4% 94.5% -2.9% 94.4%
Chicago White Sox 7.9% 4.8% -3.1% 4.8%
Cleveland Indians 10.3% 2.6% -7.7% 2.6%

National League

It now appears the Diamondbacks are the best in the West. Arizona added another 2.5 games to its division lead this week, making it four games overall. The D’backs gained 26.4 percentage points and are now up to 84.8 percent likelihood of winning the division. Conversely, the Giants fell 26.4 percentage points, dropping down to 15.1 percent likelihood to win the division. San Francisco, amazingly, has the worst run differential in the NL West (-17), even worse than the Rockies (-5), Dodgers (-4) and Padres (-7). Pitcher Jonathan Sanchez(notes) might be out for the season, and with Barry Zito(notes) still out, the back-end of the Giants pitching rotation is even shakier than it has been all season.

No other team in the National League gained or lost as much as one percentage point this week. The Brewers and Phillies have virtually wrapped up the other two divisions while the Braves are locked into the wild card.

National League Weekly Review Playoff % Chance
Team 22-Aug 28-Aug % Diff Win Div
Arizona Diamondbacks 58.5% 84.9% 26.4% 84.8%
Atlanta Braves 99.2% 99.8% 0.6% 4.2%
Milwaukee Brewers 99.4% 99.9% 0.5% 99.9%
Houston Astros 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Marlins 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington Nationals 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado Rockies 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New York Mets 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cincinnati Reds 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh Pirates 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego Padres 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chicago Cubs 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Philadelphia Phillies 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 95.8%
Los Angeles Dodgers 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Louis Cardinals 1.2% 0.2% -1.0% 0.1%
San Francisco Giants 41.6% 15.2% -26.4% 15.1%

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Updated Monday, Aug 29, 2011