Ricciardi shouldn't survive Halladay debacle

Say you own a stock. And say somebody tells you the value of that stock is going to plummet immediately on a certain day. What do you do? You get rid of that stock. Because there is a fundamental and simple truth to success in the world of commodities: sell high.

Usually, it's a guessing game. Which makes the case of J.P. Ricciardi and his absolute murdering of the Roy Halladay(notes) trade market that much more egregious. He didn't have to speculate. He knew the value of Halladay would never be higher than it was for the past three weeks. He understood that the second the clock hit 4 p.m. ET, he would be staring at his very own Black Friday.

And do you know what he did, the Toronto Blue Jays general manager who has overseen a truly mediocre (616-619) team for nearly a decade and lavished $126 million on the underachieving Vernon Wells(notes)? Guess how he handled his chance to remake a franchise that in the cutthroat American League East dances the dance of inconsequence year after year?

He bungled the whole thing. He held when every iota of logic oozed sell. If that alone isn't a fireable offense – and it is – surely combined with the Blue Jays' performance and the Wells contract has Ricciardi earned his way to unemployment.

"We were never moved," Ricciardi said 75 minutes after the trade deadline passed, and these cases are generally shades of gray. This isn't. Consider the factors involved. The likelihood of the Blue Jays, as constituted, contending next year is minimal. Halladay said he wants to test free agency following the 2010 season no matter where he plays. A half-dozen teams were interested. Ricciardi, accordingly, could ask for a sizeable return for what amounts to two stretch runs with the most consistent pitcher in baseball.

Only he overplayed his hand, and this was no typical bluff. Ricciardi went all-in on 7-2 off-suit. The minute the asking price on Halladay from Philadelphia made the rounds – Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown and J.A. Happ(notes), or the Phillies' two best prospects and a starting pitcher with a 2.97 earned-run average in the major leagues this year – executives around baseball began to wonder: Is he serious?

"I honestly thought he was posturing," one NL executive said Friday. "I figured the price would come down."

It didn't. Ricciardi knew he had the goods, and he wanted proper value for them. But when Philadelphia moved on and acquired reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee(notes) without yielding any of the three players Ricciardi asked for, all of his leverage disappeared.

Gone were the Phillies, the perfect trading partner: great prospects, desperate need, financial wherewithal. Reality then hit: All the remaining teams came flawed.

Texas had the prospects but not the cash. The Los Angeles Dodgers had the centerpiece (Chad Billingsley(notes) or Clayton Kershaw(notes)) but wouldn't part with either. The Los Angeles Angels found the asking price of four young major leaguers a joke. Halladay may not have approved a trade to Milwaukee. And the thought that Ricciardi had a higher asking price for Boston or New York because Halladay might come back to haunt the Blue Jays – heaven forbid he wins a few games during a non-essential year, as opposed to the young players acquired actually smiting the Red Sox or Yankees when Toronto can reasonably contend – is misguided in every respect.

Or: Par for the course. Ricciardi handled the negotiations very publicly, a boon for the rumor-obsessed but, according to an executive whose team was interested in Halladay, "not good form." He left Halladay twisting and now brings him back with all kinds of ambiguity. The Blue Jays want him, but if they're overwhelmed with a deal over the winter, they'll trade him, and if not, he can come back for the first three months of the season, at which point they'll reassess, and if they're not in it, they'll probably go through this same nonsense again, only this time they'll ship him off, and for far less than they could have gotten this year.

Got that, Doc?

He's got to be smirking at it all. This has been the busiest trade deadline in years. Lee to Philadelphia. His former Cleveland teammate, Victor Martinez(notes), to Boston. The injured Jake Peavy(notes) to the Chicago White Sox. Matt Holliday(notes) to St. Louis and Jarrod Washburn(notes) to Detroit and Orlando Cabrera(notes) to Minnesota and Adam LaRoche(notes) to Boston, then Atlanta. Any Pittsburgh Pirate who didn't get traded should be embarrassed.

In that climate, Ricciardi couldn't muster up a proper Halladay deal, and it's rather reminiscent of Minnesota holding onto Johan Santana(notes) too long and watching the market for him crash. Ricciardi stuck to his valuation of Halladay even as the suitors' priorities shifted, and in some fashion, he deserves respect for never wavering. The problem is, Ricciardi did so to the detriment of the franchise he runs, and such stubbornness rarely results in success.

"Someone may look at him next year and come up and absolutely blow us away," Ricciardi said. "I can't answer that."

So the world moved on, and Ricciardi enters his lame-duck phase. Running the Blue Jays, of course, is at times untenable. He must win in a division where winning takes constant brushstrokes of brilliance. Tampa Bay last year proved it's possible, and there, perhaps, was the first gun fired in Ricciardi's 21-blast salute.

He fought his own little war, against the two big boys of the AL East, and he lost. The Blue Jays may one day be good again. They showed flashes earlier this season and have a decent core heavy on young pitching (Ricky Romero(notes), Brett Cecil(notes), Mark Rzepczynski and Scott Richmond(notes), plus the injured Dustin McGowan(notes), Shaun Marcum(notes) and Jesse Litsch(notes)) with some keeper bats (Aaron Hill(notes), Adam Lind(notes) and Travis Snider(notes)).

All of which would look much better with three or four kids as a complement. Actually, the Blue Jays did get a little younger Friday. In the minutes leading up to the deadline, Ricciardi traded third baseman Scott Rolen(notes) to Cincinnati for third baseman Edwin Encarnacion(notes) and pitchers Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke(notes). Ricciardi turned an expensive asset into youth, and for a losing team, that's always welcome.

Amid his mismanagement of the Halladay situation, Ricciardi did some good. Just not enough to save his job.