Week 7 playoff forecast: Pats make big move

Simulation based forecasting & methodology: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

The Patriots were the big winners in the AFC this week. Not only did they win while the Jets lost but the way the Patriots won – a dominating offensive performance – bodes well for the rest of the Patriots season. New England improved its playoff chances by more than 35 percent because its chances of winning the AFC East improved from 40 percent last week to 78 percent. The Jets not only have lost three games in a row; they lost their last two to division rivals. These losses, especially at home, really take their toll and the Jets now have just a 13-percent chance of making the playoffs. AccuScore expected Sanchez to struggle when the weather got worse given his lack of experience dealing with the elements and his Week 6 performance only validated this assessment. This does not bode well for his ability to play well at New England in Week 11, at Buffalo in Week 13, vs. Atlanta in Week 15 and the Bengals in Week 17. The Dolphins are actually ahead of the Jets now in playoff probability despite being only 2-3.

The Steelers' chances improved considerably thanks to the Bengals upset loss and an injury to Antwan Odom(notes). The Bengals still have a solid 47-percent chance at making the playoffs, but a loss to the Texans at home definitely hurt. Even though the Ravens lost a game they were expected to lose, their playoff chances still dropped nearly 20 percent because of the way they lost. The Vikings game seemed to confirm that the Ravens' pass defense is one of the worst in the league and the run defense is potentially mediocre. No matter how the offense plays, the Ravens' chances against Pittsburgh, the Colts, Packers and other prolific offenses just went down.

The AFC South appears all but over with the Colts having a 99 percent chance of winning the division. The Colts have a two-and-a-half game lead, but more importantly, they are playing at a much higher level than the 3-3 Jaguars, who barely edged out the Rams at home, and the Texans, who are good enough to beat anyone and are inconsistent enough to lose to anyone. Houston is the team best equipped to make a move in the AFC because it has not played the Colts yet and still has a theoretical chance of beating the Colts twice. The challenge for Houston is it has a tough schedule with just two games in which they are heavily favored.

The Monday night game established the Broncos as the class of the AFC West. Not only did they beat the favored Chargers on the road which significantly boosts their chances of winning the division; it was also the way they won which involved out-playing the Chargers in every way possible – better offense, vastly superior defense, more big special teams play and better coaching. The Broncos are now second to just the Colts in playoff probability at over 97 percent. The Chargers' loss helped limit the damage to the Bengals' and Ravens' chances who are their primary wild-card competitors.

NFC

The Cardinals are actually the No.1 run defense (statistically speaking) and by destroying Seattle on the road, they re-established themselves as the favorite in the NFC West. Even though the 49ers have the same record and have a big road win over Arizona, the Cardinals are favored to win the division based on quality of play the rest of the year. Most would concede that the Cardinals have the better offense, but right now they are playing well defensively which is why they are performing better in simulations than the 49ers. Seattle was hoping that a healthy Matt Hasselbeck(notes) would carry its team to the postseason, but after the debacle on Sunday and the potential season-ending injury to Lofa Totupa, the Seahawks only have a four-percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Saints, coming off a dominating win over the Giants, are strong in every area of the game. The passing game gets the attention, but this team runs well and is playing great defense. As a result, the Saints' chances of winning the division improved to 85 percent chance. Atlanta improved its playoff chances by plus-7 percent. By beating Chicago, the Falcons gained an edge over a potential wild-card competitor. Amazingly, the Panthers and Tampa Bay have less than a 1-percent chance of making the playoffs combined.

There was only minimal movement in the NFC North. The Vikings won an exciting game over Baltimore, but it was a game they were expected to win and their chances improved just 3.5 percent. The Bears only dropped 3 percent because they lost a game they were expected to lose. The Packers' chances changed the most, improving plus-10 percent because they beat Detroit and key wild-card competitors, Chicago and Philadelphia, lost.

The Eagles' stunning loss to the Raiders dropped their chances 30 percent. When you are looking to win 11 games and you lose a game in which you are an 80-percent favorite, it takes a major toll on playoff chances. The Eagles will not only need to avoid any future upset losses, but they will also likely need to sweep the Cowboys to secure a wild-card spot. The idle Cowboys improved their chances by 12 percent because of the three other NFC East teams all losing. The Giants may have been humbled in New Orleans, but their loss only hurt them by 7 percent because they were not expected to win on the road against the Saints. The Giants still have a solid 61 percent chance to win the NFC East and a 76-percent chance of making the playoffs.