AccuScore: Jaguars in control of Colts

AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs. Here is the preseason analysis of the 2010 NFL season after Week 13. Visit for weekly updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts.


The Jaguars’ big victory at Tennessee boosted their playoff chances considerably; when the Colts lost at home to the Cowboys, the Jaguars’ playoff chances vaulted 30 percent. Jacksonville is now the favorite to represent the AFC South with a 48-percent chance of winning the division. The Colts still are not far behind at 39 percent, but a Week 14 win at Tennessee is a must. Only one AFC South team will make the playoffs as the four teams are projected to combine for just a 1.6-percent chance of earning a wild-card spot.

Kansas City got a close win against the Broncos and benefited when the Chargers lost at home. The Chiefs’ playoff chances went up more than 18 percentage points. The Chargers’ chances plummeted more than 31 points. The Raiders are now averaging eight wins per season simulation, a solid improvement this season, but they are still forecasted third in the division with just an 18-percent chance of making the playoffs.

The Steelers got a huge win in Baltimore and is now virtually a lock to make the playoffs at more than a 99 percent chance. The Steelers’ chances of winning the AFC North jumped from 46 to 79 percent. Baltimore may have seen its division chances drop from 54 to 21 percent, but the overall playoff chances only dipped five points thanks to losses by the Colts and Chargers. Cincinnati has been eliminated from playoff contention with a 0-percent chance. Cleveland is barely hanging on with an 0.3-percent chance of earning a wild-card spot.

The Patriots improved their playoff chances by only 2.2 percent and the Jets dipped only 0.1 percent, but the significance of the Patriots’ dominating win should not be underestimated. The Patriots are now the heavy 84-percent favorite to win the division, and their chances of advancing to the Super Bowl are up considerably now that they are in position for the top overall playoff seed. They have beaten both the Ravens and the Jets at home while beating up the Steelers on the road.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 19.2% 49.3% 30.1% 48.3%
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 34.6% 52.6% 18.1% 46.4%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 2.6% 17.9% 15.4% 16.3%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 94.8% 99.3% 4.5% 78.6%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 97.7% 99.9% 2.2% 83.7%
HOUSTON TEXANS 6.3% 6.6% 0.3% 6.4%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NEW YORK JETS 91.6% 91.5% -0.1% 16.3%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 8.3% 4.2% -4.1% 0.0%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 93.2% 87.8% -5.4% 21.4%
TENNESSEE TITANS 20.5% 6.5% -14.0% 6.4%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 54.9% 39.3% -15.6% 38.9%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 76.3% 44.8% -31.5% 37.3%


The Seahawks are up 8 percentage points this week after beating the Panthers and having the Niners lose to the Eagles. But the Rams are still the favorite to win the NFC West at 62.5 percent. This division likely will come down to who wins the Rams-Seahawks game, the regular-season finale. Even though the game is in Seattle, the Rams are even with the Seahawks in current simulations. The Niners are down to just 3.7 percent, and the Cardinals are officially eliminated after making the playoffs in none of the simulations.

The New Orleans offense is clicking and the Saints are up 7.6 percentage points after a win in Cincinnati. The Falcons saw only a 2.1-percentage=point increase, but that’s because they are already so close to having a 100-percent chance. Tampa Bay played well, but after suffering a home loss to Atlanta, its playoff chances dropped 13 percent to just a 30 percent chance.

The Eagles won again and saw their playoff chances improve 5.7 percentage points. The Giants also won and while their loss crushed the Redskins’ playoff chances, the Giants’ chances actually dropped. This is because two of their remaining opponents, Green Bay and Minnesota, are projected better in simulations than they were last week. The Giants need to become Cowboys fans because Dallas plays the Eagles twice. Currently the Eagles are 67- and 83-percent favorites against the Cowboys, which is the reason they have the best chance of winning the division at nearly 74 percent.

Green Bay still trails Chicago in the division, but Chicago’s difficult remaining schedule (vs. Patriots, at Vikings, vs. Jets, at Green Bay) could result in the Bears winning only one more game. The Packers have an easier schedule with games against the Lions and are at home versus their tougher opponents like the Bears and Giants. The Packers are favored in three of their final four games, which is why they are winning the NFC North in a majority (56 percent) of simulations.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 25.9% 33.9% 8.0% 33.9%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 84.1% 91.7% 7.6% 26.3%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 76.6% 82.3% 5.7% 73.8%
CHICAGO BEARS 61.4% 67.0% 5.6%< 44.0%
ATLANTA FALCONS 97.4% 99.5% 2.1% 73.5%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 61.4% 62.5% 1.1% 62.5%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 74.5% 74.2% -0.3% 56.1%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.8% 0.5% -0.3% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 1.5% 0.2% -1.2% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 1.5% 0.0% -1.5% 0.0%
NEW YORK GIANTS 59.9% 54.4% -5.5% 26.2%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 11.3% 3.7% -7.6% 3.7%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 43.7% 30.2% -13.5% 0.2%

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Updated Wednesday, Dec 8, 2010