Wire to wire
Sometimes, all that preseason rhetoric isn't just hot air, after all.
Four months ago, I toured the NFL's training camps, and I listened to Lovie Smith talk about how his defense had a chance to be "special," chatted with Seattle's Marcus Trufant about why he thought the Seahawks were going to be this season's big surprise and enjoyed hearing Romeo Crennel give a sermon on the virtues of patient progression in Cleveland. At times, you have to take the conversations with a grain of salt – like when Ravens wideout Derrick Mason likened Kyle Boller's development to that of former Titans teammate Steve McNair.
But there are always a few moments that ring true when we begin our journey through a regular season. We knew Indianapolis was going to be good, just as sure as we knew San Francisco was going to struggle. And as it turns out, Smith, Trufant and Crennel were all speaking the gospel truth when I visited them back in July and August. Yet, you can't see everything coming – and as many readers have enjoyed pointing out after each weekly change in the rankings – I surely didn't.
Still, who could have known some of the things we'd experience? Things like …
The Colts starting the season 13-0 and holding the No. 1 spot in the rankings wire-to-wire.
Seattle rising up from the Muddled Middle to establish itself as the NFL's rock-solid No. 2 team.
Chicago making the biggest leap of any team, jumping from the Bottom Five (30th overall) to finish the season fourth.
The Eagles and Ravens tumbling from the Top 12 into the Muddled Middle, while the Jets crashed from fourth to 31st.
Those were just a spare few highlights and lowlights from another intriguing season. Now we brace ourselves for postseason chaos. But not before one more shot at the rankings – or as readers love to point out, one more shot to be totally wrong.
THE TOP 12
1.Indianapolis Colts (14-2) – Winning that last game was an important shot of momentum. But the next two weeks are even more vital. The Colts have to get everyone healthy and refocused. Think some of these guys are hoping for a rematch with the Patriots?
2.Seattle Seahawks (13-3) – It's good to be a blocker for Shaun Alexander. He bought Seattle's linemen and fullbacks portable TiVo players last week. And according to Alexander, that's just an appetizer. Bigger gifts are coming – especially if the Seahawks make it all the way to Detroit in February.
3.Denver Broncos (13-3) – Tatum Bell is looking like the No. 1 candidate to be next season's Larry Johnson.
4.Chicago Bears (11-5) – Defensive coordinator Ron Rivera could interview for as many as six head coaching gigs: Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland, St. Louis and Green Bay.
5.New England Patriots (10-6) – The people questioning whether Bill Belichick was taking Sunday's game seriously need to lighten up. After all, Doug Flutie's dropkicked extra point was successful.
6.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) – After seeing running backs chew up the Bengals' defense lately, the Steelers have to feel pretty good going into Cincinnati.
7.Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4) – The offense has never looked as good under Jack Del Rio as it did in the win over Tennessee. And while everyone wants to talk about the quarterbacks, the unit's playoff success is going to fall on Fred Taylor and Greg Jones.
8.Cincinnati Bengals (11-5) – Carson Palmer's deal paves the way for a team that will have to re-sign its entire offensive line after 2006.
9.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) – It's funny how Lovie Smith gets so much credit for surviving with a shaky quarterback position and a great defense, but Jon Gruden hasn't gotten a peep of attention for doing the same thing.
10.New York Giants (11-5) – He won't be the league MVP, but Tiki Barber should get the nod for Offensive Player of the Year.
11.Carolina Panthers (11-5) – Forget Steve Smith and the defense. If the Panthers can't run the ball consistently in the playoffs, they have no shot at the Super Bowl.
12.Washington Redskins (10-6) – Regardless of what the Redskins are going to do to retain Gregg Williams, he has to leave if he's offered another head coaching job. He'll always have opportunities to be a defensive coordinator. Seize the big stage when it's available.
RISING
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) – Is Herm Edwards worth a first-round pick to the Chiefs?
THE MUDDLED MIDDLE (in alphabetical order)
Arizona Cardinals (5-11) – With 2005 in the books, Dennis Green begins 2006 at the top of the list of coaches who need to produce big next season.
Atlanta Falcons (8-8) – The defense will have to be tweaked in the offseason, but the offense should be better with the maturation of Michael Jenkins and Roddy White. Michael Vick is my dark horse for league MVP in 2006.
Baltimore Ravens (6-10) – Brian Billick is back because there is a dearth of impressive head coaching candidates this offseason. But make no mistake this is his last shot to get the franchise back on track.
Buffalo Bills (5-11) – It looks like it's going to be a split with Tom Donahoe getting fired and Mike Mularkey staying put for at least one more year. Then again, a new general manager might have a different plan in mind.
Cleveland Browns (6-10) – The Phil Savage situation is ludicrous. If he's fired or resigns, he'll be unemployed for about 30 seconds.
Dallas Cowboys (9-7) – Bill Parcells cannot be seriously thinking about leaving the Cowboys for Detroit. That has to be about money – plain and simple.
Detroit Lions (5-11) – Maurice Carthon and Ron Rivera should be interesting interviews, but Matt Millen really wants a huge name. Notre Dame's Charlie Weis and Dallas' Bill Parcells fit the bill, but they are the longest of long shots.
Miami Dolphins (9-7) – Is this next season's Cincinnati? Not likely. But considering the personnel success Nick Saban had in his first offseason, it's not out of the question.
Minnesota Vikings (9-7) – Zygi Wilf was a little harsh. Mike Tice should have been given until Monday morning to notify his family that he'd been fired.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-10) – Naming Tom Heckert the Eagles' general manager is a fantastic move. The last thing this franchise wants is to let another team steal away a talent evaluator who is on the same level as New England's Scott Pioli.
St. Louis Rams (6-10) – If they can't get Chicago's Ron Rivera or Washington's Gregg Williams, the Rams should hire Bengals offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski and turn the defense over to Dom Capers.
San Diego Chargers (9-7) – So much for clearing up that Drew Brees/Philip Rivers battle. With Brees likely out until early summer, the Chargers will have to sit on their hands and see how his shoulder heals.
Tennessee Titans (4-12) – Sitting with the No. 3 pick in the draft, the Titans should be praying for Texas quarterback Vince Young to declare.
FALLING
Oakland Raiders (4-12) – He deserves votes, but until he plays an entire season as an every-down defensive end, Derrick Burgess shouldn't be the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year.
THE BOTTOM FIVE
28.Green Bay Packers (4-12) – If the Packers truly want Brett Favre back in Green Bay, Steve Mariucci might do the trick. Then again, it's probably not wise to make a decision based on a quarterback who wouldn't be around more than one more season.
29.San Francisco 49ers (4-12) – For a team that was in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes all season, landing the No. 7 overall pick seems like a big letdown. At least Alex Smith had two lukewarm games to end the season.
30.New York Jets (4-12) – If Herm Edwards leaves, the Jets should take another stab at Bill Parcells.
31.New Orleans Saints (3-13) – Tom Benson did Jim Haslett a favor by dumping him. There are enticing things about this roster for the next coach, but who will want to deal with uncertainty of a possible move in 2007?
32.Houston Texans (2-14) – Maybe we'll be looking at Sunday's loss as the most beneficial in Texans history. Then again, maybe Reggie Bush will be the next coming of Eric Metcalf or Dave Meggett.
