AccuScore: Playoff shifts after week 11
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2009 MLB Season after 11 weeks of play. visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated twice a day.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit opened Week 11 with a pair of road losses to St. Louis but finished with four straight wins, including an impressive sweep vs Milwaukee. Their 4-2 performance combined with Minnesota losing their last two games at home vs. Houston (upset losses) helped Detroit raise their playoff probability nearly +12 percentage points. Detroit's performance had a major impact in the National League Central as well (keep reading below). Detroit has plenty of advantages over Twins (four-game lead, more home games than road games), but AccuScore is still giving Minnesota the overall edge to win the AL Central. It seems that despite many factors in Detroit's favor, AccuScore thinks Minnesota has underachieved so far and will once again be better in the second half than the first half of the seasons.
The Angels dropped their last two vs the Dodgers, but they still managed to improve their chances by 6.7 percentage points this week. They were 4-2 including an impressive road sweep of the Giants. Meanwhile Texas were swept at home by the Giants and their 2-4 record has dropped Texas' chances by nearly 10 percentage points. The Angels also have the advantage of having four more home games than Texas over the course of the rest of the season.
In the AL East, Baltimore still has a small 13 percent chance of making the playoffs, but they improved their chances by an impressive 4.5 percentage points by going 5-1. Their week was especially impressive because they were underdogs in all six of their games. Based on probability they were expected to go 2-4. Boston had a solid 4-2 week which coupled with the Yankees 2-4 week helped Boston regain a solid lead in the AL East (46 percent chance of winning this competitive division). Tampa Bay (12-6 in June) is expected to pick the pace and they actually have the second highest probability of winning the AL East despite current their fourth-place standing. They have more home games remaining on their schedule and their pitching staff should be healthier the rest of the season.
AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 11 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
TEAM | 15-Jun | 22-Jun | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
28.8% | 40.7% | 11.9% | 37.0% | |
43.7% | 50.4% | 6.7% | 45.7% | |
8.9% | 13.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | |
59.6% | 63.5% | 3.9% | 46.2% | |
9.0% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 10.6% | |
13.4% | 16.2% | 2.8% | 12.6% | |
32.6% | 34.9% | 2.3% | 17.7% | |
46.5% | 46.4% | -0.1% | 42.8% | |
29.0% | 28.0% | -1.0% | 13.9% | |
14.4% | 12.5% | -1.9% | 10.0% | |
9.6% | 4.5% | -5.1% | 4.1% | |
42.7% | 34.1% | -8.6% | 16.7% | |
15.2% | 6.2% | -9.0% | 5.5% | |
46.6% | 36.8% | -9.8% | 31.6% | |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Cardinals were 5-1 this week and the Brewers were just 3-3. After a 5-1 record, it is not surprising to see the Cardinals improve their playoff chances by more than 10 percentage points. It is a little surprising to see Milwaukee drop minus-3 points after earning a split this week. They lost ground because the Cardinals now have a 1.5 game lead in the division and the Brewers lost three at home. The Cubs were an excellent 4-1 thanks to some late inning rallies. However, 4-1 did not help them because they won home games they were clearly supposed to win (White Sox and Indians are under .500). The Cubs also have more road games than home games on their remaining schedule and the combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents is 54 percent, considerably higher than the 48 percent of their opponents to date.
The San Francisco Giants were a surprise 84-game winner in AccuScore's pre-season forecast, and they are currently on pace to beat this mark. The Giants improved their playoff chances significantly despite going just 3-3 this week. They dropped three games at home to the Angels, but made up for this disappointing performance by winning three on the road in Texas. Colorado continues to make a strong run and improved their playoff odds by another 5 percentage points with a strong 5-1 week. They did not pick up as much ground as you might expect because all six games were at home and they were expected to win at least four of these games.
The Marlins and Mets both picked up ground in the NL East despite going 3-3 and 2-4 respectively. This happens when division leader Philadelphia goes an awful 0-6 (all at home). They now hold just a two-game lead over the Mets and their chances of winning the NL East dropped a massive 17 percentage points from 38.5 percent. Their aberrantly bad home record (13-22) simply makes no sense. They were 44-37 at home last season (2nd best home record in the league). Assuming they start racking up some home wins (AccuScore's projected 26-20 rest of season) they are still a strong favorite to repeat in the NL East.
NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 11 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
TEAM | 15-Jun | 22-Jun | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
44.1% | 54.9% | 10.8% | 43.0% | |
San Francisco Giants | 24.3% | 32.2% | 7.9% | 16.8% |
15.5% | 20.8% | 5.3% | 10.0% | |
17.9% | 21.6% | 3.7% | 18.0% | |
31.1% | 33.3% | 2.2% | 28.2% | |
16.9% | 18.5% | 1.6% | 15.2% | |
79.2% | 79.8% | 0.6% | 70.3% | |
0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
1.9% | 1.7% | -0.2% | 0.7% | |
9.4% | 9.0% | -0.4% | 4.9% | |
3.6% | 2.9% | -0.7% | 1.5% | |
12.2% | 10.9% | -1.3% | 5.5% | |
22.3% | 20.0% | -2.3% | 11.6% | |
48.8% | 45.8% | -3.0% | 33.4% | |
9.2% | 4.6% | -4.6% | 2.2% | |
63.6% | 43.9% | -19.7% | 38.5% | |
