NFL Power Rankings: Who is the Super Bowl favorite, Patriots or Cowboys?
By the end of the regular season, it was clear that two teams had separated themselves from the pack.
That’s not to say the Dallas Cowboys or New England Patriots can’t be defeated before Super Bowl LI. Both have flaws. But everyone in this NFL postseason has flaws, and the Cowboys and Patriots have fewer blemishes and are far more consistent than anyone else. Certainly the executives at Fox, which will broadcast this year’s Super Bowl, are praying for Cowboys vs. Patriots. That matchup could be the highest-rated television show in history. (My colleague Kevin Kaduk ranked all the possible Super Bowl matchups, and it’s no surprise what’s No. 1.)
But which team should be considered the Super Bowl favorite?
According to OddsShark, the Patriots are the favorites at +180, with the Cowboys comfortably behind at +375. No other team is better than +800.
Football Outsiders’ DVOA ranking shifted from the Cowboys, who were No. 1 last week, to the Patriots at the end of the season. New England took over the No. 1 spot in the final rankings after soundly beating the Dolphins on Sunday.
I’m in agreement. The Patriots finish the season as the top team in these power rankings and the Super Bowl favorite.
It’s not because the Cowboys aren’t deserving, and it’s definitely not because they lost in Week 17 with Mark Sanchez playing quarterback most of the game. The Patriots are playing at a slightly higher level, and they showed it in a road demolition of the Dolphins, who had won nine of 10 before Sunday’s smashing.
Both teams have very few flaws on their resumes. New England’s Week 4 loss really doesn’t count; they pretty much played without a quarterback. In their only other loss, they threw incomplete on the final play from the 1-yard line against a very talented Seahawks team. New England was one fade route to Rob Gronkowski from going 12-0 with Tom Brady at quarterback.
The Cowboys don’t have a bad loss either. They lost by one point to the Giants in Week 1, in rookie quarterback Dak Prescott’s first game. They lost 10-7 on a long Odell Beckham touchdown to the Giants in Week 14, when the Cowboys had already practically wrapped up the top seed in the NFC. Sunday’s loss to the Eagles didn’t matter.
The Cowboys played a tougher schedule, but the Patriots played at a slightly higher level. And let’s be honest, if it came down to that matchup you’d trust a Brady-led team over the one starting rookie Prescott at quarterback. It’s a 1A and 1B situation, and if they meet in Super Bowl LI, a good argument can be made for either team winning.
And let’s hope these two teams meet in the Super Bowl. It would be a heck of a game.
Here are the final power rankings from the NFL’s regular season:
32. Cleveland Browns (1-15, Last week: 32)
It was weird watching the Browns trying very hard to win on Sunday, when there’s no question losing – and getting the No. 1 draft pick – was the best thing for the franchise. Luckily for them, they are the Browns and couldn’t beat Pittsburgh’s JV team.
31. San Francisco 49ers (2-14, LW: 31)
There isn’t a worse head-coaching job in the NFL right now than this one. The 49ers have nothing to offer candidates other than, “We’re one of 32 teams!” It looks like the worst roster in the NFL, with an owner who doesn’t inspire much confidence and it’s a franchise that has fired a coach after just one season two straight years. Seems like a career dead end.
30. Los Angeles Rams (4-12, LW: 29)
Over the whole season the Browns were a far worse team, and the 49ers were worse overall other than the two times they faced the Rams. But the L.A. might have been the worst team in football after turning to Jared Goff at quarterback seven games ago. That’s scary for the future.
29. Chicago Bears (3-13, LW: 27)
The Bears have the third pick. It feels like they’re going to reach on the best quarterback available in a bad draft for quarterbacks, doesn’t it?
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13, LW: 28)
The Jaguars showing some life in Week 17, then blowing a huge lead and losing in the last seconds sums up the state of the Jaguars.
27. New York Jets (5-11, LW: 30)
It’s amazing (and telling) that the Jets played meaningless games since mid-November on, and second-round pick Christian Hackenberg didn’t take one snap all season. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 34 and has practically no chance of being on the Jets’ roster next season, played the entire finale. That came after Geno Smith and Bryce Petty went down with season-ending injuries. And Hackenberg, the 51st pick of the draft, was not put in for a play in a game that meant nothing to either team. Wow.
26. San Diego Chargers (5-11, LW: 26)
In San Diego’s last nine games, Philip Rivers threw 17 interceptions. He led the NFL with 21. Rivers has rebounded from mediocre seasons before, but he’ll turn 36 next season and will be learning yet another new offensive scheme from a new staff.
25. Cincinnati Bengals (6-9-1, LW: 25)
Rex Burkhead had 13 carries his first three NFL seasons. This season, he never had more than 12 in a game before Week 17. On Sunday he had 119 yards and two touchdowns on 27 carries against a tough (albeit disinterested) Ravens defense. It gives the Bengals something to consider going into next season.
24. Philadelphia Eagles (7-9, LW: 24)
Maybe Zach Ertz should sit out until December every season. He finished strong again, just like last season. He had two 10-catch games in the final quarter of the season, including a 13-catch, 139-yard, two-touchdown game Sunday.
23. Carolina Panthers (6-10, LW: 20)
It’ll be interesting to see what expectations are for the Panthers next season. Their last four seasons: 12-4, 7-8-1, 15-1, 6-10. It’s hard to tell what we’ll get next.
22. Minnesota Vikings (8-8, LW: 23)
Sam Bradford setting the completion percentage record is funny. What percentage of those completions were checkdowns?
21. Buffalo Bills (7-9, LW: 18)
Being blasted by a Jets team that quit weeks ago was a fitting end to a disappointing season. The Bills are likely to be starting over at quarterback this offseason, with an offense built around a running back who will be 29 and a No. 1 receiver who can’t stay healthy. The last time the Bills gave a coach at least four seasons was … Marv Levy, who last coached in 1997. I guess they felt like they needed to move on from Rex Ryan, but I’m not sure this job will attract a great candidate.
20. Arizona Cardinals (7-8-1, LW: 21)
The Cardinals got very lucky that David Johnson’s knee injury suffered in Week 17 isn’t serious. The Cardinals like Johnson, and for good reason, but they have to make sure they don’t overwork him because 373 touches in a little more than 15 games this season is a ton.
19. Indianapolis Colts (8-8, LW: 19)
Andrew Luck reacted to a Week 17 game-winning touchdown like the Colts won a Super Bowl, which was a little strange but whatever. Hopefully the Colts can have a good offseason, because it’s more fun when Luck is on a relevant team.
18. New Orleans Saints (7-9, LW: 16)
I’m already curious which disappointing free agent the Saints will blow all their salary cap space on this year. A tradition unlike any other.
17. Tennessee Titans (9-7, LW: 22)
Nice way to end a growth season. They’re the team to watch this offseason. With the right moves at receiver, cornerback and a couple other spots, they could do next season what the Raiders did this season. And don’t forget, the Titans will draft fifth overall (thanks, Rams!) and 18th.
16. Washington Redskins (8-7-1, LW: 14)
How do you look that bad with a playoff spot on the line against a team playing for nothing? It’s going to be a long offseason.
15. Houston Texans (9-7, LW: 15)
If Brock Osweiler starts a playoff game and struggles in a loss, he’s going to have a hellish offseason. Albert Haynesworth will forever be replaced as the poster child for free-agent busts.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7, LW: 17)
If Doug Martin can come back strong next season, it seems like the Bucs are a legit No. 2 receiver away from being a fantastic offense. If they don’t go for a big free agent, like Alshon Jeffery or Terrelle Pryor, maybe they can get an impact rookie receiver with the 19th pick.
13. Baltimore Ravens (8-8, LW: 11)
Breshad Perriman’s development will be huge for the Ravens. The 2015 first-round pick, who didn’t play that year due to knee issues, had 499 yards this season. Every once in a while he’d make a play that reminded you of his draft pedigree. It’s seems like 2017 is his turning point.
12. Denver Broncos (9-7, LW: 13)
As long as there’s no lingering resentment from the Shanahan family over Mike being fired after the 2008 season, Kyle Shanahan should be the Broncos’ next coach. He’s the best candidate (maybe it’s Josh McDaniels, but we all know that is NOT happening in Denver) and the Broncos have the best job opening. Easy.
11. Oakland Raiders (12-4, LW: 10)
Matt McGloin was worse than imagined. If rookie Connor Cook has to start, he’ll be the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to make his first career start in a playoff game. What a weird contest we’ll see on Saturday afternoon. It’s too bad because the Raiders really were potential Super Bowl contenders before Derek Carr’s injury.
10. Detroit Lions (9-7, LW: 12)
The Lions have lost eight straight playoff games, and it’s hard to see them breaking that streak in Seattle. Given where the Lions were after winning on Thanksgiving, a wild-card berth and a first-round loss would seem like a disappointing season. A win at Seattle would change that in a hurry.
9. Miami Dolphins (10-6, LW: 9)
I do picks later in the week, but I have to say … the Dolphins are 10-point underdogs at Pittsburgh? Wow. Has that much really changed since the Dolphins beat the Steelers 30-15 in Week 6? I get that Ben Roethlisberger injured his knee in the second quarter of that game and tried to play through it, but the Dolphins deserve a little more respect than they’re getting.
8. New York Giants (11-5, LW: 8)
That was an impressive win at Washington, considering the Giants could have packed it in with a playoff game on deck this week. Their defense against Green Bay is a nice wild-card weekend matchup.
7. Seattle Seahawks (10-5-1, LW: 7)
Thomas Rawls played in Week 17, but had just 14 yards on eight carries against a terrible 49ers defense. There aren’t many players who are more important in these playoffs than Rawls. The Seahawks won’t win a Super Bowl without a decent run game.
6. Green Bay Packers (10-6, LW: 6)
In Green Bay’s last two games, undrafted rookie Geronimo Allison has eight catches for 157 yards and a touchdown. Playing with Aaron Rodgers helps any receiver, but the Packers are good at identifying talent at that spot.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5, LW: 5)
Getting DeAngelo Williams back can’t hurt. As the Steelers found out last year, you don’t want to go too far down the depth chart at running back in the playoffs. It didn’t make sense to give Williams 23 carries in his first game since Nov. 6, but at least they know he’s ready.
4. Atlanta Falcons (11-5, LW: 4)
Vic Beasley shook off a disappointing rookie season to lead the NFL in sacks, with 15.5 this season. He had two more sacks than anyone else. The Falcons needed a star on defense, and Beasley emerged as one.
3. Kansas City Chiefs (12-4, LW: 3)
Getting the No. 2 seed was huge for the Chiefs. Since winning Super Bowl IV, the Chiefs have been to the conference championship game only once, at the end of the 1993 season. Now they’re one home win from going to the AFC title game.
2. Dallas Cowboys (13-3, LW: 1)
Randy Gregory had a nice Week 17, with seven tackles and a sack. It doesn’t hurt to add someone of his talent level late in the season, right before the playoffs.
1. New England Patriots (14-2, LW: 2)
LeGarrette Blount’s 18 rushing touchdowns are the most for an NFL player since Adrian Peterson did it in 2009. He had 18 rushing touchdowns in his three previous seasons combined. Pretty random career year as he turns 30 years old.
Podcast: Who’s the MVP? Plus: what’s the best coaching gig available?
Subscribe to Grandstanding • iTunes • Stitcher • Soundcloud
– – – – – – –
Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at shutdown.corner@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
Follow @YahooSchwab
