Week 12 playoff forecast: AFC North help Jags

Simulation based forecasting & methodology: AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups, AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.

AFC

The AFC North playoff contenders – Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore – all lost in tough fashion and this division gave a gift to other AFC playoff contenders. The Bengals and Steelers saw their playoff chances drop 7 and 10 percentage points, respectively. The Steelers lost the most because they suffered the biggest upset of the week. The Ravens may have only dropped 0.7 percent, but they were the big losers in the week because a win over the Colts combined with the Bengals and Steelers losses would have put them in excellent wild-card position. Now they have to minimally beat the Steelers twice to have any chance.

The Jaguars are not perceived to be a serious playoff threat because of some disastrous losses this year. That said, they are still a solid 6-4 and with the AFC North failures, they saw their playoff chances jump the most this week in the AFC going up 14 percentage points. The Jaguars have three remaining home games and 1 "easy" road game at Cleveland. They will likely need to beat the Texans, Dolphins and Colts at home in Week 13, 14 and 15 to make the playoffs. The Texans suffered a very costly loss to the Titans at home. The loss slashed their playoff chances from 19 to a shade below 11 percent. Finally, the Titans are still given just a 4-percent chance of making the playoffs. They will likely need to win their remaining six games to even have a chance. With road games vs. the Colts and tough home games vs. the Dolphins and Chargers, it will be hard to go 6-0 the rest of the season.

Miami was AccuScore’s pick for second in the AFC East in the preseason and the Dolphins showed last week that they can still win without Ronnie Brown(notes). A solid road win that verified they are a solid running and defensive team have helped them improve to a 27-percent chance of making the playoffs. The Dolphins are projected to finish 3-3 the rest of the season which would not be good enough. To make the playoffs they will need to not only win the games in which they are favored, but they also need to win two of these three matchups (Jaguars in Jacksonville, Houston at home, and the Steelers at home).

While the Chargers are now heavy 87-percent favorites to win the AFC West by beating the Broncos in Denver so convincingly, the Broncos still have a solid 36.5-percent chance of making the playoffs. This is down 14 percentage points from a week ago, but it is still good enough for sixth in the AFC. If the Broncos take care of business in their "easy" division games (at Chiefs; home vs. Raiders, Chiefs), they may only need to win one of their games vs. the Giants, Colts, and Eagles to make the playoffs. The key is can they keep it together and re-focus in time to get an upset win at home vs. the Giants on Thursday.

NFC

The Giants beat the Falcons in overtime and the win was huge. It improved their playoff chances by more than 15 percentage points because they beat a primary wild-card competitor. The Eagles also saw solid improvement this week because they won on the road. Even though they were favored, they were not heavy favorites and winning close games is the difference between a 9-7 non-playoff team and a 10-win playoff team. The Cowboys improved by six percentage points even though they were unimpressive in their win because potential wild-card threats (Atlanta, San Francisco, Carolina, and Chicago) all lost.

The Cardinals were once again the only NFC West team to win this week and they now have a commanding three-game lead in the division. It looks like the Week 1 home loss to San Francisco will not cost them anything even if they lose the rematch. With more than a 97-percent chance of hanging on to the division lead, the Cardinals have more than a 98-percent chance of making the playoffs. It will be important that Kurt Warner(notes) is healthy as their chances per game drop between 15 and 20 percentage points depending on if Leinart or Warner is starting.

The Packers have put together a few quality wins but their playoff chances were relatively unchanged this week because the Giants beat Atlanta and the Eagles beat Chicago. The three primary wild-card contenders are the two NFC East teams and the Packers. Even though the Packers have the same record as the Giants and Eagles, their remaining schedule is tougher with road games at Chicago, at Pittsburgh and home vs. Baltimore. The Packers need to hope the Cardinals have nothing to play for in Week 17. The Packers are winning 42 percent of Week 17 simulations if Arizona is playing hard. If Arizona rests starters, the Packers are a 60-plus percent favorite and their playoff chances match the Eagles and Giants.

In the NFC South, the Saints have run away with the division and even though they have not mathematically clinched a playoff spot, they are making the playoffs in every single one of the 10,000 season simulations. Atlanta saw its chances drop by a full 18 percentage points. The Falcons need to go at least 5-1 to have a legit shot at the playoffs and with tough games vs. the Eagles, Saints, and Jets on their schedule, it will be tough to only lose once. The Falcons chances will significantly improve in Week 13 if they beat the Eagles at home.