PFW's mock draft: Injury concerns could hurt stars
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With barely a week remaining before the NFL draft, PFW's ears have been well-pressed to the phone in search of scenarios that could play out Draft Weekend. Some stars invited to New York could make for great drama if they slide the way PFW is hearing they might, given injury concerns and non-scheme fits, while some others could rise late in the first round. Following is how it could conceivably play out, barring trades, which we expect will shake up the first-round landscape.
1. Detroit Lions: QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia
The Lions have been trying to hold their cards and maintain their best poker face, but they are not fooling the rest of the league, who fully expect the rocket-armed junior to be the first quarterback drafted. Stafford's impressive interviews and overall intelligence have not been lost on any team that has come into contact with him. He has handled all the pressure extremely well, being described by one team as "just one of the guys" with the even-keeled temperament to win over an offensive line and perform at a high level in the NFL.
2. St. Louis Rams: OLT Jason Smith, Baylor
A decision has yet to be made in St. Louis, with Eugene Monroe and Jason Smith still jockeying for position at the Rams' greatest area of need. Smith does not have nearly the experience of a three-year starter such as Monroe, but he has much greater upside, a more surly playing demeanor and he better fits the profile of the line that Steve Spagnuolo was accustomed to winning with in Philadelphia and New York.
Tyson Jackson, right
(Paul Abell/US Presswire)
3. Kansas City Chiefs: DE Tyson Jackson, LSU
The only elite five-technique in this year's draft, Jackson may not be a flashy pick, but he perfectly fits the 3-4 front to which GM Scott Pioli would like to transition and fits the same mold as the defensive linemen – Richard Seymour and Ty Warren – that New England initially built its defense around.
4. Seattle Seahawks: QB Mark Sanchez, USC
With durability being a serious issue for 33-year-old Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks need to think about a new franchise quarterback. Although the Seahawks remain very interested in trading down, Sanchez could give the team the most value to move the pick at this spot, with the possibility remaining that they would draft him and then trade him.
5. Cleveland Browns: CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
Jenkins perfectly fits the mold of an Eric Mangini-profile defensive back, with size, toughness and versatility. He could be a Pro Bowler in Mangini's scheme and brings little risk.
6. Cincinnati Bengals: OLT Andre Smith, Alabama
With natural bend, long arms and great athletic ability, teams will start Smith at left tackle and kick him to guard if he struggles, but a number of teams still believe he is the most gifted tackle in the draft.
7. Oakland Raiders: WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri
Maclin's ability to have an impact on offense and special teams could be the deciding factor in Al Davis' decision. He is electric when he touches the ball and could become a big-time playmaker for an offense that features few of them, especially at the WR position.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars: OLT Eugene Monroe, Virginia
Tra Thomas may not be enough of a short-term solution to get the Jaguars through the season, as his performance gradually declined in Philadelphia last season, making Monroe's availability in this spot a pleasant surprise. Despite desperately trying to trade down, GM Gene Smith may not be able to, or want to, if Monroe is available. With a knee injury giving teams reason for concern, the Virginia tackle's medical condition could push him down the draft board.
9. Green Bay Packers: WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech
Ted Thompson has long held the belief of selecting the best talent, not the greatest need, and if the player who some evaluators believe is the best talent in the draft happens to fall into the Packers' lap, Thompson could have a difficult time resisting.
10. San Francisco 49ers: OLB Brian Orakpo, Texas
The Niners' pass rush could use a big boost, and in Orakpo, they could have an explosive rush linebacker to bring heat off the edges and upgrade a pass rush that was not good enough last season.
11. Buffalo Bills: OLB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest
The Bills could be a big winner if Curry is available here, and thus the pick could command serious trade interest. However, with a need at outside linebacker and more emphasis needing to be made on character, it would be very difficult for the Bills to pass on a talent like him. Not being viewed as a great fit in a "30" front, Curry could see his stock being altered.
12 Denver Broncos: NT B.J. Raji, Boston College
Josh McDaniels needs to make defense a priority after Mike Shanahan struggled to fix it, despite having spent boatloads of the owner's money trying. Raji could give Mike Nolan the anchor of his defense.
13. Washington Redskins: OT Michael Oher, Mississippi
If the Redskins are to stick with Jason Campbell, which is not a given at this point, and want to appease their pocket passer, they need to be able to max-protect. Oher could be groomed to replace the aging Chris Samuels.
14. New Orleans Saints: RB Chris Wells, Ohio State
With Deuce McAllister gone and Reggie Bush proving he cannot be a bell-cow back, the Saints need a bruiser to pound the rock hard between the tackles. Wells is considered to be the best-suited back for that role and, if used in a two-back rotation, may be able to preserve his health.
15. Houston Texans: OLB Brian Cushing, USC
The Texans must address their defense through this draft, and Cushing could bring the energy desired to increase its tempo and fill a big void that was created late in the season when Zach Diles suffered a career-threatening injury.
16. San Diego Chargers: ILB Rey Maualuga, USC
Most great linebackers through the years struck fear into opponents with their physical presence, and Maualuga could do the same for a defense that lost some of its edge last season without Shawne Merriman.
17. New York Jets: QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State
Some evaluators believe Freeman is the most gifted quarterback in this class, with comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger surprisingly being tossed around, and it's very possible the Jets will have to move up if they want to land Freeman. If he falls to the Jets, it would be a no-brainer, but it's more likely GM Mike Tannenbaum, who has been aggressive trading up to secure his target, makes a move.
18. Denver Broncos (from Chicago): RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
The value of the RB position is significantly greater in the Patriots-style offense than it was in the one-cut, zone running scheme formerly employed by Shanahan, and the Broncos do not have a competitive workhorse in the mold of Moreno to take pressure off Kyle Orton and carry the offense. With Rookie of the Year potential, Moreno could make a more immediate impact than any quarterback.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland
With Joey Galloway gone and Michael Clayton slated to start, the Buccaneers need to add more speed opposite Antonio Bryant, and Heyward-Bey brings an abundance of it. Underutilized at Maryland, Heyward-Bey could make Luke McCown or Byron Leftwich look much better.
20. Detroit Lions (from Dallas): DE Aaron Maybin, Penn State
The Lions would have to feel good if they could address what many in the NFL would consider the two most valuable positions, quarterback and defensive end, with their first two picks. Maybin could be gone at this point, but if he is not, he shows the first-step quickness and athletic ability to become a great pass rusher.
21. Philadelphia Eagles: CB Darius Butler, Connecticut
Joe Banner may not tell the Eagles which player to select, but he often dictates what position to target, and the value of the CB position could be too great for the Eagles to pass in a league where four-wide is becoming more the standard, not the exception, and cover men come at a premium.
22. Minnesota Vikings: DT Peria Jerry, Mississippi
Jerry has the motor, toughness and inside pass-rush ability to become an immediate factor on third downs and could keep the Vikings from getting gashed up the middle early in the season if they are without Kevin Williams and Pat Williams.
23. New England Patriots: TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State
With Bill Belichick taking the reins of the offense this year from the departed Josh McDaniels, he will be looking for more ways to create mismatches for opposing defenses, and a physical, blocking tight end gives an offense a lot of versatility, much like a knight on the chess board.
24. Atlanta Falcons: OLB James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
Some evaluators believe Laurinaitis could slip to the second round, but he is so well-rounded and instinctive that decision makers in search of a safe pick, such as Thomas Dimitroff, might have a difficult time passing on him.
25. Miami Dolphins: OLB Robert Ayers, Tennessee
The Dolphins may have a more pressing need at wide receiver, with Chad Pennington needing more playmakers. However, just as important is finding a rush linebacker who can be groomed to replace the declining Joey Porter, who fell off late last season.
26. Baltimore Ravens: CB Vontae Davis, Illinois
Some evaluators would not be surprised if Davis slipped out of the first round, but he is big, physical and explosive and could be too attractive to a team with a strong coaching staff capable of molding him.
Brian Robiskie
(Stephen Dunn/Getty)
27. Indianapolis Colts: WR Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
Bill Polian has an excellent track record in the first round because he sees the big picture so well and does not take a chance on big character risks early in the draft. Robiskie grades out as a third-round talent as a possession-type receiver, but in a weak draft where there are few safe bets at the WR position, Polian will feel comfortable rolling the dice early.
28. Buffalo Bills (from Carolina through Philadelphia): DE Clay Matthews, USC
After obtaining this pick from the Eagles as part of the trade for OT Jason Peters, a deal that also includes a third-rounder to Buffalo this year, the Bills' draft strategy will have to be reevaluated. It is possible they will look to find a replacement for Peters with the 11th overall pick, but they still must improve an average pass rush. Matthews would be a high-character pick that could help in the locker room.
29. New York Giants: WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina
The Giants have a need for a big receiver, and whispers have begun to swirl about their interest in trading for a big-time receiver such as Anquan Boldin, with a deal for Braylon Edwards now appearing to be a more unlikely scenario. Nicks could be a risky pick, but he could give Eli Manning the target he sorely missed last season when Plaxico Burress was sidelined.
30. Tennessee Titans: WR Percy Harvin, Florida
Harvin is unlikely to fit into the first round with too many issues that could affect his draft stock. However, the Titans have a history of rolling the dice on big-time talent with character concerns, such as Albert Haynesworth and Pacman Jones, and their ability to control Haynesworth shows the Tennessee staff is very capable of managing high-maintenance talent.
31. Arizona Cardinals: OLB Clint Sintim, Virginia
With the Cardinals often operating out of 3-4 packages, the need for hybrid pass rushers has grown in Arizona, and Sintim is as accomplished and well-versed in the role as any in this class.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers: C/OG Eric Wood, Louisville
The Steelers need to replace the struggling Justin Hartwig, who was a liability in the Super Bowl last season, and Wood provides the strength, mass, power and smarts to step into a starting job immediately.
If you would like to read more about the players who are about to enter the April 25-26 NFL draft, Pro Football Weekly has the publication that fits the bill – the 2009 Draft Preview book, available now at www.pfwstore.com. The 180-page 2009 Draft Preview book contains detailed scouting reports on nearly 500 prospects. You'll also get our rankings of more than 1,000 draft prospects.
