AccuScore: Projected AL standings
2009 American League Preview
SIMULATION BASED FORECASTING & METHODOLOGY
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 Season one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the 2009 American League.
American League East
The best division in baseball should once again live up to the mantle. Tampa Bay and Boston are in a virtual tie for first with 95 wins and a 32 percent chance of winning the East. Each team also has a 47 percent chance of reaching the postseason. New York trails with 91 wins mostly due to the injury to Alex Rodriguez and the susceptibility to injury at other positions. The Yankees still have a 23 percent shot of winning the division.
Toronto has already suffered some critical injuries to its pitching staff again hamstringing the team before the season even begins. The Orioles will be the punching bag of the division with a weak lineup and even worse pitching staff. They are projected for the fewest wins in the American League with 69.
AL EAST | WIN | LOSS | +/- WINS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | MAKE | WIN | WIN WORLD SERIES |
95 | 67 | 0 | 32.20% | 46.50% | 28.00% | 19.50% | 13.10% | |
93 | 69 | -4 | 28.10% | 42.60% | 24.70% | 16.50% | 10.60% | |
91 | 71 | 2 | 25.40% | 40.80% | 21.90% | 14.50% | 9.10% | |
80 | 82 | -6 | 11.50% | 22.40% | 9.60% | 5.30% | 2.40% | |
68 | 94 | 0 | 2.80% | 6.50% | 1.80% | 0.50% | 0.10% | |
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American League Central
This should be the most competitive division in the American League with all five teams separated by just nine games in our projected standings. The Twins are the slight favorite to win the division at 26.2 percent. Cleveland and Chicago trail closely behind with 22.5 percent and a 22.2 percent chance of winning the division. Even the bottom dwellers have hope with the Tigers having a 17 percent chance followed by Kansas City with a 12 percent chance of winning.
Minnesota is buoyed by a solid young pitching rotation that must stay healthy again and prove that last season was not a fluke. Cleveland is trying to rebound from a poor 2008 campaign but with major questions in the rotation. The White Sox are the most likely team headed for a decline due to the age of its lineup and the questionable health of the pitching staff. They are projected to win seven fewer wins compared to 2008.
AL CENTRAL | WIN | LOSS | +/- WINS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | MAKE | WIN | WIN WORLD SERIES |
86 | 76 | -2 | 27.90% | 34.10% | 19.70% | 8.70% | 4.60% | |
83 | 79 | 2 | 22.50% | 29.00% | 14.60% | 5.90% | 2.70% | |
82 | 80 | -7 | 21.60% | 27.60% | 14.20% | 5.50% | 2.70% | |
79 | 83 | 5 | 16.90% | 22.50% | 11.10% | 4.00% | 1.80% | |
75 | 87 | 0 | 11.10% | 15.70% | 6.40% | 1.80% | 0.70% | |
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American League West
The Angels are once again the favorites, but they are starting to show some chinks in the armor. Projections have them winning the division by 8 games with a 45 percent chance of winning the division. This however is a result of overall weakness of the other three teams in the AL West.
Los Angeles failed to resign Mark Teixeira, and there are injury concerns over starters Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar. Youngsters like Kendry Morales and Howie Kendrick need to stay in the lineup and make the jump from potential to production. Oakland is the most likely team to make a leap up and challenge the Angels. The A's significantly improved the lineup by adding Matt Holliday and have several pitching prospects on the verge of helping the big club.
AL WEST | WIN | LOSS | +/- WINS | WIN DIVISION | MAKE PLAYOFFS | MAKE | WIN | WIN WORLD SERIES |
88 | 74 | -12 | 44.80% | 48.60% | 25.00% | 11.00% | 6.20% | |
81 | 81 | 6 | 29.20% | 33.60% | 14.10% | 4.80% | 2.10% | |
72 | 90 | 11 | 14.70% | 17.20% | 5.60% | 1.40% | 0.50% | |
69 | 93 | -10 | 11.30% | 13.00% | 3.40% | 0.70% | 0.20% | |
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