Betting on Preakness Stakes 2024? Here's why each horse can — and can't — win at Pimlico
Only nine horses are entered for Saturday’s $2 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course, but the second leg of the Triple Crown is not lacking in strong contenders.
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the race a record eight times and has two top choices in Arkansas Derby winner Muth and Santa Anita Derby runner-up Imagination. Muth is the 8-5 morning-line favorite for the Preakness.
Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan will try to keep his Triple Crown hopes alive for trainer Kenny McPeek. Mystik Dan is the 5-2 second choice in the morning line.
Joining Mystik Dan from the Kentucky Derby will be Catching Freedom (fourth) and Just Steel (17th).
And don’t forget Tuscan Gold, who will try to become the third Chad Brown trainee to win the Preakness after not running in the Kentucky Derby, joining Cloud Computing (2017) and Early Voting (2022).
Here’s a look at why each horse can and can’t win the Preakness — many serious, a few tongue in cheek and one destined to be right.
Click on a horse's name to learn more.
1. Mugatu (20-1 odds)
Why he can win: Maybe the other eight get stuck in the gate.
Why he can’t: Have you checked this guy’s resume? One win in 12 starts. No finish better than third in his last seven chances. He’d be better off running in the Sir Barton.
2. Uncle Heavy (20-1)
Why he can win: Perhaps he can get back to the form that saw him win the Grade 3 Withers in February at Aqueduct. He also adds a top jockey in Irad Ortiz Jr.
Why he can’t: Was no match for this level of competition last time out, finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
3. Catching Freedom (7-2)
Why he can win: It’s not like Brad Cox to run his Kentucky Derby horses back in the Preakness, so he must like what he’s seeing. Catching Freedom was an admirable fourth in the Derby.
Why he can’t: Just feels like he’s a step behind the best in this class. Any maybe that Louisiana Derby win wasn’t as good as we thought.
4. Muth (Scratched)
Why he can win: He’s 2 for 2 as a 3-year-old and was impressive in winning the Arkansas Derby — 6 ¼ lengths ahead of third-place Mystik Dan. He’s proven he can ship out of California and still be formidable.
Why he can’t: Remember when owner Amr Zedan sued Churchill Downs, trying to get Muth into the Kentucky Derby? How will the “horse racing gods” feel about that?
5. Mystik Dan (8-5)
Why he can win: The Kentucky Derby showed how well jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. knows this horse, and there’s no reason he can’t get another dream trip along the rail at Pimlico. There's rain in the forecast, and Mystik Dan likes the mud.
Why he can’t: Was he running out of gas in those final yards in the Derby? He was a split second from finishing third, and this time he’ll have to deal with two Bob Baffert trainees.
6. Seize the Grey (12-1)
Why he can win: Solid victory in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby Day undercard. He’s always in the hunt, and perhaps he picks up the pieces if the favorites don’t fire.
Why he can’t: The speed figures just don’t match up with the best in this race.
7. Just Steel (12-1)
Why he can win: Throw out that 17th-place finish in the Derby, when Just Steel got caught in an early speed duel with Track Phantom. If he can lay off the pace and make a late run, look out!
Why he can’t: How much did the Derby take out of him? Two weeks back after that taxing speed duel is not ideal.
8. Tuscan Gold (9-2)
Why he can win: It’s a winning formula for trainer Chad Brown: Skip the Derby and win the Preakness. He did it in 2017 and 2022, and Tuscan Gold could be primed to make a big jump here.
Why he can’t: It takes a special horse to win a Triple Crown race off just three career starts. Maybe he moves forward off that third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby. But maybe that’s the best he’ll ever be.
9. Imagination (3-1)
Why he can win: Muth is the favorite, but “the other Baffert horse” shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s never finished worse than second in six career races, and you know he’ll be up close early. Very dangerous.
Why he can’t: He couldn’t get past Stronghold in the Santa Anita Derby, and Stronghold finished seventh in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe the California horses just aren’t that good this year.
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com. Follow on X @KentuckyDerbyCJ.
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This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Preakness Stakes horses 2024 betting tips for nine in field at Pimlico
