Who to watch in the National League

Pitching, pitching, pitching will be the key to winning these divisions. That's why Atlanta's run of consecutive division titles seems destined to come to an end, why the NL Central race again should be thrilling and why the NL West is impossible to figure out.

• AL early look

NL EAST: The Braves' dynasty could run out of steam

OK, let's see. We should have won the wild card last season, and the team that beat us out has a ring. Our biggest hole was our bullpen. Do we sign Roberto Hernandez? How about Tim Worrell? OK, we'll get them both – to set up for Billy Wagner! The Philadelphia Phillies obviously mean business, and expectations are high for a World Series run. Oh, they also added Eric Milton to an already strong rotation. A good winter's work.

OK, we won the World Series and our star catcher left for ... Detroit! And our star first baseman left for Chicago. Well, at least the Florida Marlins' starting staff is young enough to be able to stay put. And they are talented enough to keep this team contending for a few years. If Josh Beckett really did take the leap to a No. 1 year-round starter, and Dontrelle Willis keeps up the dramatics, the scrappy and effective offense can be enough to win. They've already proved it.

A lot of folks are counting out the Atlanta Braves. It doesn't look good to lose Greg Maddux, Javy Lopez and Gary Sheffield in a single offseason. But these guys did win the division by 10 games last season – and in front of the top two wild-card contenders. There's plenty of offense left with the Joneses, Andruw and Chipper, driving in Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles. J.D. Drew will help fill Sheffield's void.

Newcomer John Thomson is a key. He is 20 games under .500 for his career yet had somewhat of a breakout year in '03. Can he make it a big three behind Russ Ortiz and Mike Hampton?

The New York Mets should be better than they are! They just should. Tom Glavine, Al Leiter, Steve Trachsel, Scott Erickson, it's a solid enough rotation with the chance to shine. They're flat offensively with questions all around. It will be fun to watch Kazuo Matsui play in America.

Will somebody please put the Montreal Expos out of their misery? They had such a tremendous wave of talent come through the organization over the last 15 years and just let them stop through. It's just about over. How can a team rebuild with the situation surrounding it? It has become a one-year stopover for veterans looking to jumpstart their career, like Carl Everett and Tony Batista, and a place for others to prove they are capable everyday players, like Nick Johnson.

NL CENTRAL: Who will win the arms race?

Pitching, pitching, pitching. That will sum up the Central this year. The Chicago Cubs have added Greg Maddux to their lights-out starting staff. Anyone who thinks he is done is nuts. It looks like he got out of Atlanta while the getting was good and believe me, his return to the Cubs is not just nostalgic. This guy is an ultimate gamer and just wins ... every year! If young guns Kerry Wood and Mark Prior stay healthy and continue their upward climb, the Cubbies could cruise.

Down south, another veteran pitcher with a bunch of Cy Youngs will play a huge part in his team's success. The Houston Astros made a huge splash by signing Andy Pettitte away from his Yankees, but the splash became a wave as the move coaxed Roger Clemens back for another year on the hill. I've heard so much talk about how Clemens will not be able to rely on intimidation because he'll have to hit. Please! This guy just wins games. He will laugh after a few starts in the National League when one out of three jams he gets into end with the pitcher grounding or striking out! The Astros added two aces and just in time. There aren't that many years left for the Biggio, Bagwell, Kent trio to shine.

The St. Louis Cardinals will have a solid offense led by Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, but can their pitching match up to the elite? Matt Morris has the stuff to dominate and put up legitimate No. 1 stats. Woody Williams put up those stats last year in what was a breakout year for him. Jeff Suppan will be solid. Jason Marquis and Chris Carpenter have questions. I'm not sure that's enough to hang with the big boys this season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates went down the second-chance veteran aisle this winter and added some guys who have had big years in the past (Raul Mondesi, Jose Mesa) and some guys who have the potential to have big years (Daryle Ward, Randall Simon). That should be enough to win some games, but this is a top-heavy division with a door too heavy for these guys to push open. The most interesting baseball story is Jason Kendall. Is he done or can he still be a star?

The Cincinnati Reds will continue their run of mediocrity this season. Even if Ken Griffey Jr. stays healthy and hits 50 home runs, and Adam Dunn and Sean Casey meet expectation, they really can't compete in this division without any true pitching ace. They are full of No. 3 and No. 5 starters and that could be enough if this was a division loaded with .500 teams. It's not.

The Milwaukee Brewers have a couple of young players that would be household names with other clubs, namely Ben Sheets and Geoff Jenkins. But that is not enough star power to carry an otherwise mediocre team. Ben Grieve hopes to use hitter-friendly Miller Park to get those power numbers back.

NL WEST: Where mediocrity could be king

Randy Johnson can carry a team. He has before. But he has only carried a team to a championship with Curt Schilling matching his excellence every five days. That doesn't bode well for Arizona Diamondbacks fans this season. Adding Richie Sexson and Roberto Alomar to an adequate offense won't push them over the top either. Let's face it, the Diamondbacks are in the midst of transition with a mixture of young hopefuls and older hopefuls as well. But the National League West is downtrodden, so where do we stand? If Randy Johnson is healthy and is the stud Randy Johnson that we all know, and if newcomer Shane Reynolds will be a solid 14- or 16-game winner, these guys will have a shot at playing in October.

The San Diego Padres have quietly assembled an interesting bunch over the last six months. I recently commented on how new stadiums and new owners usually spur ownership to build a winner. Here is a new stadium in full effect. Let's first talk additions: David Wells, Sterling Hitchcock, Ramon Hernandez, Ismael Valdes, Jeff Cirillo, Jay Payton and Antonio Osuna. That's not a bad offseason at all. And let's go further with the late season addition of Brian Giles, and the health of both Trevor Hoffman and Phil Nevin. If a young pitchers Adam Eaton, Jake Peavy and Brian Lawrence step up, this will be the team to beat in the West.

OK, the Los Angeles Dodgers couldn't score last year. Got it. And they didn't do much to improve that side of things. And they lost ace Kevin Brown. Only the Dodgers' pitching kept them alive all season in '03, and without adding a lot of offense, they will be down in '04. Remember, Eric Gagne is only allowed to save games if the Dodgers are leading after eight innings.

The San Francisco Giants lost a lot. Tim Worrell is in Philly, Jose Cruz Jr. is a Devil Ray, Sidney Ponson is back with the Orioles, and gamers Rich Aurilia and Benito Santiago are gone as well. The biggest concern however is that Benito and Marvin Benard aren't present to take some of the federal heat off Barry Bonds for the steroid scandal. If it's not juiced balls, it's strike zones and now steroids ... more on that later after all the fluff is gone! But the Giants will hang only because the division is down. Felipe Alou gets his guys to play hard, and that wins games. This division will be a .500 fest for sure!

The Colorado Rockies still are recovering from shelling out too much money for too little pitching, and a full recovery isn't in the near future. They added plenty of potential offense with newcomers Jeromy Burnitz and Vinny Castilla, who join returnees Larry Walker, Todd Helton and Preston Wilson. That won't be the answer though. The Rockies went out and got ultra-veteran Jeff Fassero to start again at age 41 and Shawn Estes to revive his sometime dominant career of the past, hoping to spark an otherwise no-name rotation. If the Rockies ever want to win, they will need to pitch like it is the most important part of the game.