America's Most Loyal Baseball Fans
Chicago Cubs fans are legendary for loving their team no matter what the scoreboard says, or how many consecutive days the home team trails the division leader. Kids who can't get tickets wait for home run balls on Sheffield Avenue. And regardless of how many beers the bleacher bums consume, no one forgets the words to "Take Me Out to the Ball Game."
Cubs fans are some of the most loyal in baseball.
But they're no Texas Rangers fans, who flock to the Arlington ballpark through last place finishes and playoff runs alike. The Ranger faithful don't care if the team trades away its best players or spends $252 million to sign an MVP-caliber batter like Alex Rodriguez. No team's attendance is less tied to its on the field performance than the Rangers', and nowhere else in the country do fans peel off at a slower rate when the club has thin years.
 |
(Of course, had owner Tom Hicks studied the attendance numbers a little closer back in 2001, he might not have offered what has come to be known as the worst contract in baseball history.)
The Boston Red Sox are right behind the Rangers. Apparently, the highest ticket prices in the league can't turn away Boston fans. The Atlanta Braves ranked third, followed by the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Behind The Numbers
We calculated our rankings by measuring how tied attendance figures were to winning percentage since 1991, and we discounted expansion teams that have come along since. Through the use of multiple regression analysis, we determined how quickly fans supported the team when they started winning and how quickly they dissipated once performance slumped. The faster that fans boosted attendance and the more hastily they abandoned poor performance indicated fans who were less loyal.
We also controlled for new stadium construction and the boost it gives franchises, in order to avoid confusing the novelty of a new ball field for a bad season loyalty. Ticket prices were also controlled. If a team had to reduce prices during in order to maintain attendance, that's not loyalty. But if a team jacked up ticket prices and brought in even more fans, it's clear that the club has broad support.
But just because a team performed poorly in our rankings doesn't mean one can rush out and call its supporters fair-weather fans. It's tough to be a hardcore Angels fan when living in Orange County. Most every summer day is 80 degrees, and you can get to the ocean in 30 minutes. If the free waves are breaking off Huntington Beach and a last place Angels club wants $20 for a ticket, it's not a difficult decision.
Likewise, the 4 and D subway rides to the Bronx seem quite a bit longer when the Yankees are spending copious amounts of cash for an arguably mediocre team. It's tough to blame New Yorkers for sticking to Manhattan and Brooklyn when the boys in pinstripes are playing poorly, as they did in the early '90s.
Teams In Torment
But long bouts of suffering seemed to enhance fan loyalty. The Red Sox and Cubs are obvious examples, as are the Pirates. In 2005, the team had the second-worst record in baseball and the worst record in the National League. Yet, in that year, the Bucs drew almost exactly as many fans as the 1992 club that won the National League East and was one fluke Francisco Cabrera single away from the World Series.
Even after you control for the attendance effect of their new yard, PNC Park, the Pirates fans are some of the steadiest in baseball. There aren't many fans – even in the best years, they barely eclipse 20,000 a game – but they are loyal. Based on their front office's never-ending stream of bonehead moves, and a team that hasn't been to the playoffs in 16 years, being a Pirates fan necessitates an extreme, possibly irrational, devotion.
Of course, irrational devotion is, in essence, what it means to be a sports fan – otherwise cities would never willfully hand over hundreds of millions of dollars to billionaire owners for new stadiums without expecting a return on investment.
Methodology
Data for winning percentage and attendance are from Stats Inc. and are based on official Major League Baseball figures. Ticket data are average prices paid for tickets each year and are from Team Marketing Report's Fan Cost Index. Using multiple regression analysis to determine how closely related winning percentage was to fan attendance, we controlled for the fluctuation of ticket prices and the boost in attendance as the result of having a new stadium, based on league-wide trends for teams that built new ball parks between 1991 and 2007.
The Montreal Expos, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Florida Marlins, Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays were not considered due to a shortage of data and the statistical anomalies stemming from those being either new franchises, relocated franchises or a team that folded.
Our final rankings were a combination of two factors: How closely related fan attendance patterns were to winning percentage, after compensating for controls. We used what statisticians would note as the P > |t| value and checked for the mathematical confidence of that assessment; as well as the slope of the line as it went from zero wins to 162 possible wins. The sharper the slope broke downward for every point the team lost, and the faster it broke upward for every win, the less loyal fans were deemed to be. Results were controlled for the upswing in league-wide attendance and overall attendance patterns around the strike of 1994-1995.
The top five:
1. Texas Rangers: Slideshow
2. Boston Red Sox: Slideshow
3. Atlanta Braves: Slideshow
4. Chicago Cubs: Slideshow
5. Pittsburgh Pirates: Slideshow
• See more fan loyalty rankings
The bottom five:
1. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Slideshow
2. Detroit Tigers: Slideshow
3. Oakland A's: Slideshow
4. Minnesota Twins: Slideshow
5. Philadelphia Phillies: Slideshow
• See more fan disloyalty rankings
