What We Learned: Behind Canadiens' fade, Bruins' surge in Atlantic

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.) 

All season it has looked as though the Montreal Canadiens were going to waltz to an Atlantic Division title. That's what happens when you win your first nine games.

But it's starting to look as though the cushion the Habs built is becoming very worn and thin, because after that white-hot start, they've gone 11-11-3, including regulation losses in seven of their last eight, as injuries piled up and the rest of the team had no answers for a fairly difficult schedule that only gets harder. Their next seven games, including what's shaping up to be a fateful Winter Classic, are also on the road.

Meanwhile the Bruins, once looking like a borderline playoff team, have turned back into the Boston of old. Over the last month or so they're 11-1-3, and scoring goals at an absurd clip. In those 15 games, they've scored 46 goals (3.07 per) and allowed just 28 (1.87 per). In that time they've narrowed the gap between themselves and their greatest rival to just one point, from the previous 13. And it's a trend we might be able to expect to continue.

This comes despite the fact that Montreal's losing is almost entirely due to the fact that they aren't getting the percentages they once did in terms of results (shooting and save percentage) but continue to hold up their end of the bargain when it comes to possession. And, perhaps unsurprising when you take points in 14 of 15, the opposite isn't necessarily true for Boston.

Even despite the apparent improvement in their play in the last month, the Bruins remain a sub-50 possession team and have actually gotten a little bit worse in this regard. Blame it on whatever you like, but that's not a long-term recipe for success. And despite the Habs' drop-off in winning, you'd have to say that as long as your possession numbers are in the mid-50s you're going to start getting things to go your way once again at some point.

Except, maybe not.

The issue for the Habs is that they've been without Carey Price, and using a guy who's basically an AHL call-up as their goaltender for the better part of a month and a half. You can see that when Price is in the lineup, the Canadiens are getting — and frankly should expect to get — save percentages well above the league average of about .923. When he's not, they give up a ton of goals, as you also might expect.

Meanwhile, Boston has gotten absurd goaltending from Tuukka Rask, because of course it has. Rask is an elite goaltender who got out to an awful start for his first seven or eight games. Once he became Rask again, they started putting together more wins and digging themselves out of their  serious early-season hole.

At the same time, Boston has carried a roughly average 5-on-5 shooting percentage that occasionally dipped below that, but a mega-strong power play that is scoring at an unsustainable rate. Montreal, on the other hand, has dropped off significantly in terms of shooting success, but it was never going to keep up the percentages in the 9-plus percent range it has seen multiple times this season.

Does it all boil down to save percentage? Of course not. But it's such a huge overarching factor given the quality of the goaltending both teams should receive for the remainder of the year that you have to weigh it more heavily than you probably would were any other team struggling in similar fashion to Montreal, or succeeding as Boston has. A dialed-in Rask can win the Bruins far more games than they might “deserve” simply because he's going to stop 93-94 percent of the shots he faces at 5-on-5. Likewise, Mike Condon just can't be counted on to make things go his team's way; he fought valiantly at first but eventually got overwhelmed by true talent level.

So the question, then, is what happens when Price comes back, and where these teams will be when he does?

It's believed that Price could miss another two weeks at least. With the Habs playing about as well as they can but getting poor goaltending -- against a murderer's row of road games at Nashville, Minnesota, Washington, Tampa, and Florida -- at the very least before he comes back that's a lot of points they seem likely to leave on the table. And if the percentages keep going Boston's way at the same time, they could pick up many more points against New Jersey, St. Louis, Buffalo, and Ottawa twice, especially because only the first of those Senators games is on the road.

The Bruins enter Monday one point out of the division lead and seem likely to overtake their bitter rivals well in advance of the Winter Classic. Hell, it could happen within the next day or two. And at that point, you'd have to figure much of the season comes down to how much space Boston can create for itself before Price returns.

The Bruins' roster has obvious deficiencies on the blue line (and the way Claude Julien handles his deployments and scratches isn't helping), but the offense is much improved from last year to the point that mega-offense seems sustainable. If Rask can continue playing some of his best hockey for at least the next month, it's going to be a tough slog for Montreal to reclaim the seat on which they'd likely be sitting comfortably had Price never gotten hurt.

Once Price gets back, we might be able to consider things atop the Atlantic just about even, and perhaps even give the slight edge to the Canadiens. If the Bruins' lead is substantial — say, eight points, which is not totally impossible — even another huge season-long performance from Price may not be enough to get them back in the lead as long as Rask is his usual lights-out self.

Injuries happen and you have to deal with them, even if it's the reigning league MVP. Montreal, understandably, hasn't handled things well. Boston has. And it's made the division race a lot more interesting than it has any right to be.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Well the Ducks have had approximately zero luck go their way this season, so getting some here is probably fair in the grand scheme of things.

Arizona Coyotes: Martin Hanzal has recovered from a bad back, which he probably got from carrying this team for a big chunk of the season

Boston Bruins: Hey by the way how about the results that come from putting Ryan Spooner and Frank Vatrano together. They're really good and really young and it's working because Vatrano is a heck of a volume shooter.

Buffalo Sabres: Imagine how much better Ryan O'Reilly would look if he had better defensemen behind him and someone who's not Jamie McGinn on his line?

Calgary Flames: What do you think re-signing Johnny Gaudreau long-term costs the Flames? Is it more or less than $7.5 million? Because it feels like it probably should be more, right?

Carolina Hurricanes: Man you know the Pens are in trouble when they make Cam Ward look like a superstar.

Chicago: Yeah, Pat, they're booing you because you're good at hockey for a different team. That's why they used to boo you every other game in Buffalo ever, right?

Colorado Avalanche: Jarome Iginla is now only two goals away from 600. Remember when some people were saying he was only a “borderline” Hall of Famer? He's now 19th in career goals and almost everyone ahead of him is in the Hall already!

Columbus Blue Jackets: First the Crosby crosscheck to the neck and now this knee on Jake Voracek? If Brandon Dubinsky doesn't stop trying to hurt other teams' star players, he's gonna get a serious reputation and... wait he's not being suspended for this? Yeah I mean it's not like he has a history or anything.

Dallas Stars: Yeah losing to the Flames is gonna piss you off. This is what happens.

Detroit Red Wings: This is like, the very definition of a rookie mistake, Jeff. That is, unless you ask Adam Oates for coaching advice just so you know what not to do.

Edmonton Oilers: Folks I am screaming with joy.

Florida Panthers: Yeah but like, mostly Luongo.

Los Angeles Kings: Wuhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Minnesota Wild: Before Saturday night's loss, the Wild hadn't lost in regulation in nine games. 'Course, that only balances out their having lost six of seven before that. So, y'know, a little above .500, which sounds about right for this team.

Montreal Canadiens: Yup, they still hate mean ol' Milan Lucic.

Nashville Predators: Whenever your first shift of the game looks like a power play and ends in a goal, you had a good start.

New Jersey Devils: There aren't even five Devils worthy of being an All-Star in the first place. It's Cory Schneider and then the list ends. What is this?

New York Islanders: Yeah definitely the best way to make sure the fans who hate how your new building handles fan relations don't continue to hate you is to crack down on them.

New York Rangers: Gotta definitely single out Kevin Hayes as the reason the Rangers are bad. Has nothing to do with the blue line or shallow forward group. It's second-year-player Kevin Hayes's fault. He's only 0.5 points per game, instead of last season, when he was 0.57 (because he shot in excess of 15 percent).

Ottawa Senators: When your coach isn't obviously picking your lineup out of a hat, it turns out you can win more regularly.

Philadelphia Flyers: It's all well and good to say you take your leadership cues from Chris Pronger but when's the last time Claude Giroux elbowed anyone in the face?

Pittsburgh Penguins: I need to lie down.

San Jose Sharks: Must be nice to be as sub-mediocre as the Sharks have been this year and still very much in the thick of things in your rotten, rotten division.

St. Louis Blues: Yooooooooo.

Tampa Bay Lightning: The good news for Steven Stamkos is that having your fingers crossed behind your back and winking a lot doesn't show up in print.

Toronto Maple Leafs: What if Jonathan Bernier..... is still slightly better than league average?

Vancouver Canucks: No Henrik Sedin for any middling length of time and you might as well just blow it all up.

Washington Capitals: There might not be any stopping this Caps team. Man, they look good at just about everything.

Winnipeg Jets: Connor Hellebuyck is on four straight starts and has a .925 save percentage in seven appearances. Unless he falls off, which seems unlikely based on his track record, how do you let someone who isn't him return from injury and start for you the rest of the way?

Play of the Weekend

This is how you know it's not your night: Goalie having an awful season makes a save while lying on his stomach outside his crease, then Michael Grabner scores on a 3-on-1 like six seconds later.

Gold Star Award

Speaking of Grabner, a 2-2-4 night against the Kings is probably the best he's gonna do in any single game in his career. Unreal night at the office.

Minus of the Weekend

On the other hand, Anze Kopitar being on the ice for not one, not two, not three, but four Toronto goals is mortifying.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User “waitin425” is dreaming.

Galchenyuk
Gilbert
Juulsen
1st 2016

for

Steven Stamkos

Signoff

Catfeesh?

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via War On Ice unless otherwise noted.)