Accuscore: Playoff shifts before week seven
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to predict how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineup,s AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game, AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game and its division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
The clear-cut winner this week in the AL was the Texas Rangers, who not only went 6-0, they swept two division rivals, including pre-season favorite Los Angeles. Division wins obviously make a major impact on a team's chances of winning the division, which obviously is a major factor in making the playoffs. The Rangers went from a 38 percent chance of making the playoffs to 55.5 percent.
In AccuScore's pre-season forecast, the Toronto Blue Jays were forecasted for a respectable 83 wins which was only good enough for 4th in the AL East. But with the exception of Week 4, the Blue Jays have been in the Top 3 of this list as they continue to have the best record in the American League. The New York Yankees also had a good week going 5-1, including two road wins over the Blue Jays. A good week combined with a bad week for Boston helps the Yankees significantly close the gap with the leaders in the division. The Tampa Bay Rays were 4-2 this week, but actually lost a percentage point because their wins (three over Cleveland at home and one at Baltimore) were games they were supposed to win.
The losers this week were the Boston Red Sox, who were 2-4. In most weeks that would not be devastating, but when the Blue Jays, Yankees and Rays all have good weeks, it leads to a minus-15 percentage point drop. The Angels, Mariners, and Chicago White Sox are also all licking their wounds, after going a combined 5-13.
AMERICAN LEAGUE | WEEK 6 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
TEAM | 11-May | 18-May | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
Texas Rangers | 38.3% | 55.5% | 17.2% | 49.5% |
Toronto Blue Jays | 49.2% | 54.6% | 5.4% | 40.5% |
New York Yankees | 23.5% | 28.1% | 4.6% | 14.8% |
Baltimore Orioles | 4.9% | 8.1% | 3.2% | 3.5% |
Detroit Tigers | 28.0% | 30.8% | 2.8% | 25.9% |
Minnesota Twins | 28.0% | 29.4% | 1.4% | 24.4% |
Cleveland Indians | 9.9% | 11.1% | 1.2% | 8.8% |
Tampa Bay Rays | 32.8% | 31.8% | -1.0% | 17.4% |
Oakland Athletics | 6.4% | 5.2% | -1.2% | 4.1% |
Kansas City Royals | 35.5% | 32.8% | -2.7% | 27.8% |
Chicago White Sox | 20.0% | 16.5% | -3.5% | 13.2% |
Los Angeles Angels | 52.0% | 46.3% | -5.7% | 38.7% |
Seattle Mariners | 16.9% | 10.3% | -6.6% | 7.7% |
Boston Red Sox | 54.6% | 39.4% | -15.2% | 23.7% |
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Milwaukee Brewers find themselves at the top of this list in the National League for the second straight week. Going 5-0 will do that for you. The only reason why the Brewers did not improve by eight or nine points is the fact that the Cubs also had a solid 4-1 week, which was good enough to improve their chances by 5 percentage points. When the Brewers and Cubs do well, you know this is bad news for the St. Louis Cardinals. A poor 1-4 week not only slashed the Cardinals' chances by nearly 15 percentage points it actually helped the Cincinnati Reds improve by 5 percentage points, who were a modest 3-3. The reason why the Reds improved more going 3-3 than the Cubs did going 4-1 was the Reds won road games. The Cubs went 4-1 in games where they were heavy favorites in all five games.
Juan Pierre(notes) is playing very well for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the team went 4-2 this week without Manny Ramirez(notes). Even with the suspension, the Dodgers are currently averaging the most wins in season simulations in the entire league. The Dodgers' success in the NL West is balanced by the poor performances by the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks.
In the NL East, the Florida Marlins capitalized on an easy schedule in the first two weeks of the season to rush out to a lead in the division, but they have now come back to earth. Their 1-5 week resulted in the second biggest drop in the NL this week. The Philadelphia Phillies were 5-2 and you might have thought they would have improved their chances by more than 1.7 percent, but three of their wins were games they should win (Washington at home), and when faced with a quality opponent, they dropped two of three at home to the Dodgers.
NATIONAL LEAGUE | WEEK 6 REVIEW | PLAYOFF | % CHANCE | |
TEAM | 11-May | 18-May | % DIFF | WIN DIV |
Milwaukee Brewers | 50.8% | 56.4% | 5.6% | 44.2% |
Cincinnati Reds | 16.4% | 21.6% | 5.2% | 11.3% |
Chicago Cubs | 29.3% | 34.3% | 5.0% | 21.3% |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.8% | 65.7% | 4.9% | 60.9% |
Houston Astros | 13.3% | 16.2% | 2.9% | 8.1% |
Philadelphia Phillies | 29.1% | 30.8% | 1.7% | 24.9% |
Atlanta Braves | 20.4% | 21.8% | 1.4% | 16.6% |
Colorado Rockies | 7.8% | 8.2% | 0.4% | 5.7% |
New York Mets | 46.1% | 46.3% | 0.2% | 40.7% |
San Francisco Giants | 26.0% | 25.7% | -0.3% | 17.6% |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 4.9% | 3.6% | -1.3% | 1.6% |
Washington Nationals | 5.5% | 3.1% | -2.4% | 2.5% |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 19.4% | 16.6% | -2.8% | 11.9% |
San Diego Padres | 8.4% | 5.6% | -2.8% | 3.9% |
Florida Marlins | 23.0% | 20.1% | -2.9% | 15.3% |
St. Louis Cardinals | 38.9% | 24.1% | -14.8% | 13.5% |
