2005 Preview: NL East
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The more I look at the National League East, the more I'm convinced it's going be a pretty good race between Atlanta, New York and Florida.
Pedro Martinez really boosts the Mets' chances, and Carlos Delgado gives the Marlins a proven bat in the middle of the lineup. But when all is said and done, the Atlanta Braves will win their 14th straight division title.
1. Atlanta Braves
Strengths: They're led by Bobby Cox, who I consider to be one of the best managers in the game. His track record in the regular season has been second to none over the past 13 years. John Smoltz returns as a starter, but it'll be interesting to see how deep he can go into games at his age. The Braves have an ace in Tim Hudson. Dan Kolb, an All-Star reliever with Milwaukee last season, was also a nice addition; he'll only get better with Leo Mazzone. Defensively, the Braves are strong up the middle with Rafael Furcal at short, Marcus Giles at second, Andruw Jones in center and catcher Johnny Estrada, who's coming off a career year.
Weaknesses: The lineup isn't overly impressive. We don't know what Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan are going to do after having down years, and overall, there's not much power in the offense.
Outlook: The Braves seem to find a way to be in contention, year in and year out. It starts with Cox, and their pitching and defense are always strong. These Braves, however, look weaker than past teams, but they still have the edge over the rest of NL East because of their history of success.
Strengths: The lineup features Carlos Beltran, Mike Piazza and Cliff Floyd. Those three will combine for pretty good power numbers. Piazza, in particular, could be rejuvenated playing on a contender again. Pedro Martinez takes the rotation to another level, and with Tom Glavine, Kris Benson and Victor Zambrano, the Mets have depth and experience. With a full season at third base, David Wright figures to be a bright spot.
Weaknesses: The bullpen is somewhat suspect after closer Braden Looper, but a better rotation in 2005 could make for a better bullpen by going six or seven innings to take the pressure off middle relief. There's a lack of experience up the middle with shortstop Jose Reyes and second baseman Kazuo Matsui. Piazza is experienced in calling a game but teams will test his arm.
Outlook: The Mets could have the team that finally knocks off the Braves in the NL East. But they'll have to play as a team and must get on a roll from the start to create a winning attitude – which has been lacking at Shea Stadium. It is important for Beltran to feel comfortable playing in New York, where he'll be under the microscope. Eyes will also be on Willie Randolph, who's in his first year as a manager. I think he'll be fine since he's coming from a winning organization in the Bronx.
Strengths: The Marlins' offense could be the best in the division, or the National League for that matter. The addition of Carlos Delgado could be the biggest offseason acquisition of any team. He joins an offense that has speed at the top of the order in Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo, and other solid bats around him in Miguel Cabrera and Mike Lowell. I like the lineup from top to bottom. There's very good punch in the 6-7-8 spots with Paul Lo Duca, Juan Encarnacion and Alex Gonzalez. The starting rotation is led by Josh Beckett, who, if healthy, can be a Cy Young candidate. Dontrelle Willis and Al Leiter give the rotation exceptional depth.
Weaknesses: Guillermo Mota is an unproven closer and the bullpen in general needs someone to emerge. The health of Beckett and A.J. Burnett are always a concern.
Outlook: The starting pitching must come through because this team will score runs, but it is the bullpen will determine whether they can win the division or not.
Strengths:Jim Thome might hit 50 home runs in the Phillies' new stadium, which is a hitters' paradise. Bobby Abreu is coming off a career year and could have another All-Star season. Pat Burrell is capable of having a big season, too. Billy Wagner, who's one of the league's best closers, was somewhat quiet in 2004 but only because the Phillies were quiet. The addition of Jon Lieber will be a plus.
Weaknesses: Lieber is the only positive about the starting rotation. Among Randy Wolf, Vicente Padilla, Cory Lidle and Brett Myers, the Phillies need more than one to emerge. Ken Lofton could provide a spark batting second, but he is turning 38 in May.
Outlook: This team will finish above the Nationals but come up short contending for the division title. The pitching will surrender a lot of runs at the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. Manager Charlie Manuel will have his hands full in his first year with the Phillies, but the players will like playing for him.
Strengths: There's a lot of interest in baseball's return to Washington D.C., and that'll give the Nationals a better atmosphere to succeed. Livan Hernandez is an established starter, and Esteban Loaiza should rebound to his All-Star form of 2003. Offensively, second baseman Jose Vidro is a plus, and Jose Guillen and Vinny Castilla give the lineup some much-needed pop.
Weaknesses: This was a small-market team in Montreal and the lack of All-Star quality players from top to bottom is evident in the lineup and pitching staff. The bullpen is inexperienced.
Outlook: It'll be interesting to see baseball played at RFK Stadium again, which reminds me of the Colorado Rockies playing at Mile High Stadium in their initial years. But still, this is just a continuation of the Expos – a team that serves as a breeding ground for players to get experience before moving on to contending teams. The Nationals are expected to make up to $100 million in local revenues this season. If they spend wisely, they could be competitive in the near future.
