2005 Preview: NL Central
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It's definitely a three-team race with the Cardinals, Cubs and Astros. Pitching is what separates them from the rest of the division.
The staffs of the Cards and Cubs are superior. But the Astros, as they showed last year, can be right there if everything goes their way.
Strengths: They quite possibly have the best lineup in the National League. Larry Walker, Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds – any one of them could be MVP. The pitching staff is loaded with Mark Mulder as the new ace and all of the starters coming off 15-win seasons. Despite the fact they lost shortstop Edgar Renteria and second baseman Tony Womack, they really did a nice job replacing them with David Eckstein and Mark Grudzielanek. Eckstein, the new leadoff hitter, will be a fan favorite in St. Louis.
Weaknesses: Mike Matheny will be missed behind the dish. But with a team that won 105 games last year, the only thing that can stop the Cardinals is a rash of injuries to their stars.
Outlook: The Cardinals are going to score runs, and they should have steady pitching performances. They also have a proven closer in Jason Isringhausen and a solid bullpen. Also, Tony La Russa is one of the best managers in the game. This team will meet the Yankees in the World Series.
2. Chicago Cubs
Strengths: They have a fairly solid offense from top to bottom. Nomar Garciaparra is primed for a big year by playing a full season at Wrigley Field. The starting pitching – on paper – is one of the best in the National League with Carlos Zambrano being the best of the bunch. Even at 38, Greg Maddux always does his share of the work.
Weaknesses: Moises Alou and Sammy Sosa are gone, so Aramis Ramirez and Jeromy Burnitz will be asked to pick up the slack as far as power numbers. With Joe Borowski's injury, the closer position is up in the air.
Outlook: It's expected that Dusty Baker will become the leader of this team now that Sosa and Alou are no longer around. If the pitching staff is healthy, namely Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, the Cubs will contend for the division or wild card. They're my pick to win the NL wild card.
Strengths:Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens are a stellar trio in the starting rotation. Brandon Backe pitched well late last season, and Brad Lidge emerged as a legitimate closer. The Killer Bs of Craig Biggio, Lance Berkman and Jeff Bagwell will provide the offensive punch.
Weaknesses: Carlos Beltran's departure to the Mets has to be considered a big loss. The Astros will not only miss his bat at the top of the lineup but also his overall five-tool play. They'll also have to replace Jeff Kent's offense. Pettitte is coming back from elbow problems, so you don't know what to expect from him.
Outlook: The offense should be good enough for the Astros to compete at the top of the division, but there are question marks with the rest of the starting rotation. Clemens and Oswalt will have to lead the way.
Strengths: The heart of the lineup – Sean Casey, Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn – is capable of doing a lot of damage. The additions of Joe Randa and Rich Aurilia could give the Reds a nice veteran presence on the left side of the infield. A healthy Griffey and Austin Kearns would be major plusses.
Weaknesses: The Reds can't afford not to have Griffey stay healthy for fewer than 150 games. Can Eric Milton, Paul Wilson, Ramon Ortiz and Aaron Harang form a decent starting rotation playing in a pitching-unfriendly ballpark?
Outlook: To finish in the middle of the pack, this team will need surprise performances from the starting pitching to back up a possibly productive lineup. I do know this about the Reds: It'll be weird to see them without Barry Larkin.
Strengths:Carlos Lee could have a big year. He provides a big right-handed bat for a Brewers offense that also features Lyle Overbay and Geoff Jenkins. Ben Sheets leads a pitching staff that has potential, and Damian Miller is a veteran catcher who comes from experience with winning teams.
Weaknesses: The middle of the defense is relatively young. Also, after Sheets and Doug Davis, the rotation is inexperienced. Mike Adams has been given the task of replacing All-Star closer Dan Kolb.
Outlook: There's just not enough proven talent for the Brewers to compete with the division's top teams. A fifth-place finish will be an improvement over last season's last-place effort, though.
Strengths:Jason Bay is the reigning Rookie of the Year, and Jack Wilson has turned into a solid shortstop. Craig Wilson, with a career year at the plate, was a plus. Oliver Perez has one of the best young arms in the National League.
Weaknesses: The Pirates just don't have a very intimidating lineup. Benito Santiago is a one-year replacement for fan favorite Jason Kendall at catcher. Their payroll is the biggest weakness – they're not willing to spend on any big-name, big-money acquisitions.
Outlook: They're going to struggle in the NL Central. There just isn't enough hitting or pitching.
