Mussatto's Minutes: Why the OKC Thunder is good bet to earn top seed in Western Conference
The Thunder gained ground on the first-place Timberwolves by winning at Minnesota on Saturday night.
We’re officially in the second half of the season, and Oklahoma City (29-13) trails Minnesota (30-12) by one game.
Gone are the days when we looked at the standings upside down to project where the Thunder’s draft pick would fall. Tankathon.com’s traffic has plummeted in Oklahoma City. By the way, the Thunder never actually finished at the bottom of the West in its two tanking seasons — shoutout to the Rockets for that.
Anyway, turn those standings right side up because the Thunder might just land the No. 1 seed. In fact, Basketball Reference’s projected standings favor the Thunder to finish atop the West.
Based on 10,000 simulations for the rest of the season, four teams in the West, as of Sunday morning, are predicted to win 50-plus games, according to Basketball Reference:
1. Thunder, 58-24
2. Timberwolves, 57-25
3. Nuggets, 54-28
4. Clippers, 52-30
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Basketball Reference gives the Thunder a 52.1% chance at the No. 1 seed, followed by the Timberwolves (37.2%), Nuggets (7.4%), Clippers (3.1%) and Pelicans (0.2%).
Here’s where the model gets a little crazy. It gives the Thunder a 40.7% chance to win the West and a 20.6% chance to win the NBA Finals.
I know this is nothing more than an analytical-based projection, but let’s slow down a bit, shall we? The defending champion Nuggets have a 13% chance to advance to the Finals, per Basketball Reference, and only a 4.7% chance to win the Finals.
I’ll take those odds … only they don’t exist. The betting markets are savvier.
On FanDuel, the Nuggets are still favored to win the West (+185), followed by the Clippers (+470), Suns (+550), Timberwolves (+800) and Thunder (+850).
The Thunder is +1800 to win the NBA championship. You can bet $10 on that to win $180.
It’s crazy that we’re even talking about this.
Do I think the Thunder is going to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy? I do not.
Do I think the Thunder is going to enter the playoffs as the No. 1 seed in the West? I do.
The Thunder has the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule among Western Conference teams, per Basketball Reference. Making the race more interesting is the fact that first-place Minnesota is the only team with an easier remaining schedule.
The underlying numbers back OKC, though.
The Thunder has the best point differential (+8.0) in the West. Better than the Wolves (+5.8), Clippers (+5.6) and Nuggets (+4.9). OKC also has the best net rating in the West, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions. The Timberwolves are second, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per 100 possessions.
I’d bet on the Thunder to catch the Timberwolves. OKC narrowed the gap Saturday.
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Porter Moser nets rare Big 12 road win
Winning in the Big 12 is hard. Winning Big 12 road games is harder.
That’s why OU’s 69-65 victory Saturday at Cincinnati was a big one. It marked the fifth Big 12 road win in Porter Moser’s tenure, and it was probably the second-most impressive.
2021-22: The Sooners went 2-7 on the road in conference play in Moser’s first season with wins at Kansas State and West Virginia. Both the Wildcats (6-12) and Mountaineers (4-14) had down years in the conference.
2022-23: OU again went 2-7 on the road in Big 12 play, with wins at Texas Tech and Iowa State — two tough places to play. Texas Tech finished 5-13 in the conference, but the Cyclones were good. They were ranked No. 23 at the time and made the NCAA Tournament after a 9-9 Big 12 finish. That Feb. 25, 2023, win in Ames was the best of Moser’s tenure.
2023-24: OU lost its first two road games — at TCU and at Kansas — before beating Cincinnati, a 13-5 club which ranks 36th in the NET. OU, under Moser, is now 5-16 in conference road games.
More: Can Oklahoma men's basketball snap its losing streak to Texas?
Big 12 newcomers not faring well in women’s hoops
On the men’s side, Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and UCF are a combined 9-11 in conference play. Not great, but respectable.
On the women’s side, the Big 12’s four newcomers have fared far worse, going a combined 5-21 in the conference. Of those five wins, only two of them — Houston over TCU and BYU over Texas Tech — came against established Big 12 programs.
Houston (2-5), BYU (2-5), Cincinnati (1-5) and UCF (0-6) make up four of the bottom-six teams in the Big 12, with TCU and Kansas joining the newcomers in the basement.
Houston has lost games by 41 points (at West Virginia), 34 points (at Kansas State) and 29 points (at Baylor).
BYU lost by 32 at OSU, but the Cougars have won two of their last three games.
All five of Cincinnati’s losses were by double digits. The Bearcats’ only win was against winless UCF, but give the Knights credit. UCF nearly upset Baylor, at Baylor, on Saturday. The Knights, a 25.5-point underdog, only lost by three.
Obviously, one segment of one season isn’t enough time to judge the newcomers, especially as they grow accustomed to life in the Big 12.
Ronald Hughey is in his 10th season as Houston’s coach, but the other three new schools are being led by first-and second-year coaches in Amber Whiting (BYU), Katrina Merriweather (Cincinnati) and Sytia Messer (UCF).
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OSU men continue to slide
Things are bleak.
The OSU men lost at Kansas State on Saturday to fall to 0-5 in the Big 12.
OSU’s last 0-5 start in the Big 12? Well, you don’t have to go back very far. The Cowboys started 0-6 in the Big 12 in 2019-20 but rallied to win seven of their next 12 games.
Such a run this season seems all but impossible.
Mike Boynton, now in his seventh season as OSU’s head coach, is 47-66 (.416) in the Big 12.
Not including the four newcomers, here are the Big 12 standings (conference play only), since 2017-18, when Boynton took the job.
1. Kansas, 84-29
2. Baylor, 74-35
3. Texas Tech, 64-48
4. Texas, 60-52
5. Kansas State, 52-61
T6. OU, 48-64
T6. West Virginia, 48-64
8. TCU, 47-64
9. Oklahoma State, 47-66
10. Iowa State, 37-76
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Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder is good bet for NBA's No. 1 seed in Western Conference
