AccuScore: Favre was the missing element
More: NFC East | NFC South | NFC West
AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.
Minnesota Vikings
The return of Brett Favre(notes) helped the Vikings improve from a 35-percent chance of winning the division to a 50.7-percent chance. Favre is far more effective on third down and in the red zone than Tarvaris Jackson(notes) and, even with his high interception rate, he is still better than Sage Rosenfels(notes) in limiting turnovers. Favre should be less interception prone this year thanks to the dominant Adrian Peterson. It is crucial that defensive tackles Pat and Kevin Williams(notes) are not suspended for the first four games, especially Week 4 vs. Green Bay. The Vikings can get off to a fast 4-0 start with these two stuffing the run. Without them, the negative domino effect on the defense could cost them two wins.
(Jim Prisching/AP Photo)
Green Bay Packers
The Packers are AccuScore's surprise pick to show the most improvement in the division. Based on average margin of victory, the Packers should have been at least 8-8 last season. The offense averaged more than 26 pts and should reach that level again in '09. Most draft gurus gave the Packers an A for drafting B.J. Raji(notes) and Clay Matthews(notes). The defense is loaded with individual talent and AccuScore optimistically expects the team to adapt quickly to their new defensive scheme, becoming an average defense (allow 21.5 pts, not 23.5 pts). Average defense and great offense is enough to deliver a surprisingly strong 2009.
Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler(notes) may have made the Pro Bowl, but his gaudy '09 stats were: 1. A product of severe injuries to RBs, which resulted in a pass-heavy offense (more than 61 percent passing); 2. Playing from behind quite a bit increases passing yardage and; 3. The Broncos played a lot of bad pass defenses in '08. All these factors gave the appearance that Cutler was one of the best QBs in '08, but in terms of passer rating, he was average (16th in the league). He is obviously an upgrade over Kyle Orton(notes), and AccuScore gives the Bears a 30-percent chance of improving on their nine-win season, but Bears fans should realize they are getting an average QB with a strong arm, not a proven superstar in Cutler.
Detroit Lions
Lions fans point to Miami and Atlanta from last year as valid reasons to think they can go from a winless season to a 7-plus win team in '09. The Lions do have an easier schedule this season. The combined winning percentage of opponents in '08 was 56 percent, but '09 opponents won just 47 percent of their '08 games. Calvin Johnson(notes) might be the best wide receiver in the league if he played with a top-tier QB. If Matthew Stafford(notes) has a Ryan/Flacco-type rookie season, then Detroit certainly could be a five-plus win team. However, there are too many "if's" involved with the team, especially on defense, to expect more than a four-win season.
NFC NORTH | W | L | Win Div | Playoffs | Win 0-6 | Win 7-9 | Win 10-11 | Win 12+ |
Vikings | 10.4 | 5.6 | 50.7% | 73.5% | 1.8% | 29.3% | 42.1% | 26.9% |
Packers | 9.7 | 6.3 | 34.0% | 60.7% | 4.1% | 40.2% | 39.5% | 16.2% |
Bears | 8.5 | 7.5 | 15.2% | 33.8% | 14.2% | 55.4% | 24.9% | 5.6% |
Lions | 3.9 | 12.1 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 94.0% | 5.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
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