AccuScore: Umenyiora, D give Giants edge

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AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.

Osi Umenyiora(notes)

(Bill Kostroun/AP Photo)

New York Giants
The Giants were 3-4 without wide receiver Plaxico Burress(notes) last season. Eli Manning(notes) had a passer rating of 89 with Burress and just a rating of 78 without him. The Giants also need to replace Amani Toomer(notes). Younger players like Mario Manningham(notes) and rookie Hakeem Nicks(notes) could provide big plays at receiver, but AccuScore conservatively forecasts limited production this season from these WRs. As a result, the Giants are averaging 10.1 wins per simulation, down from 12 last year. The Giants still hold onto the NFC East lead thanks to the return of Osi Umenyiora. His return gives the Giants depth and the ability to put a dominant defense on the field.

Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles lost a defensive leader in Brian Dawkins(notes) to free agency and running back Brian Westbrook(notes) is not getting any younger. There were always concerns that Westbrook could not handle the wear and tear of being a primary back and after around 1,000 touches the past three seasons, the running back will have a tough time returning to his 2006-2007 levels. Despite these issues, AccuScore still gives the Eagles a 76-percent chance of having at least nine wins – matching last year's total – and they are just 5 percentage points behind the Giants for the NFC East lead. Ultimately, head-to-head performance in the division will determine who wins. It could come down to a few big plays from new weapon Michael Vick(notes).

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas likely would have made the playoffs if Tony Romo(notes) and dynamic rookie running back Felix Jones(notes) (8.9 ypc and 3 rushing TDs in 5 games) never got hurt. They let Terrell Owens(notes) go, but the team is loaded offensively. The advantage the Cowboys have over other NFC East teams is they have explosive backups like Jones and tight end Martellus Bennett(notes), who had 4 touchdowns in just 20 receptions (starter Jason Witten(notes) had 4 TDs in 81 receptions). The Cowboys won nine games in '08 and AccuScore give them a 53-percent chance of improving to 10-plus wins. Initial forecasts had the Cowboys winning the NFC East, but they did not address weaknesses in the secondary which keeps them a close third.

Washington Redskins
Daniel Snyder is really good at making money. The Redskins may finish last again in the NFC East, but their franchise's value, ticket sales and merchandise sales increase. Snyder can over-spend on free agents as a way to "prove" that he is committed to doing everything possible to improve the team. He signed Albert Haynesworth(notes), which should help the defense, but more importantly, it keeps the fans happy, sells more jerseys and ultimately the team makes a large profit even on a deal as large as Haynesworth's. The Redskins are good enough to win eight-plus games (49 percent chance), but they are still expected to finish last in the NFC East.

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