Patriots' defense put Belichick in tough situation

As the NFL cognoscenti argue the merits of Bill Belichick's decision to go on fourth-and-2 against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday night, most critics have disregarded why Belichick was wise not to trust his own defense.

The New England Patriots' defense just isn't very good right now. Passable, workable, improving – pick whatever word you like to describe the unit. But the fact is, particularly when it comes to stopping the Indianapolis Colts and quarterback Peyton Manning(notes), the Patriots defense is a far cry from when it helped win three Super Bowl titles in the first half of this decade.

In the six meetings since the 2005 season (including the '06 AFC title game), Indianapolis has averaged 29.7 points a game against New England. By contrast, in the six contests from 2001 through the 2004 playoffs, Indianapolis averaged only 17.5 points.

The reason is obvious. Earlier this decade, the Patriots had defensive players such as Ty Law(notes), Tedy Bruschi(notes), Mike Vrabel(notes), Rodney Harrison(notes) and Willie McGinest(notes) still playing at a high level. They could play any variety of defenses Belichick drew up, particularly against Indy's offense. As those players aged and other players around them changed, the Patriots have had to adapt, becoming primarily an offensive team as Belichick attempts to rebuild the defense around the likes of linebacker Jerod Mayo(notes) and safety Brandon Meriweather(notes). While there is talent on the Pats defense right now, it's nowhere near as diverse – and the pass rush is just ordinary unless it has a two-score lead. That was obvious all night against Indy on Sunday, when the Colts rolled up 400 yards despite at least four big drops by young receivers Pierre Garcon(notes) and Austin Collie(notes).

Furthermore, there have been moments just like Sunday when the Patriots defense collapsed against the Colts and Manning. Specifically, Manning engineered a seven-play, 80-yard touchdown drive in the aforementioned AFC title game in the 2006 season.

Throw in the two quick touchdown drives that Manning had in the fourth quarter Sunday night (they took three minutes, 31 seconds combined) and all of a sudden you can see where Belichick doesn't have an easy decision.

Does he trust an offense that features quarterback Tom Brady(notes), wide receivers Randy Moss(notes) and Wes Welker(notes) and valuable third-down back Kevin Faulk(notes)? Or does he trust a young, leaky defense going against the only guy in the league who compares to Brady?

Of course, conventional theory is what it is. Most people are calling Belichick some variation of stupid, which is pretty ridiculous. Does that mean that Belichick was smart to go for it on fourth-and-2? No, it doesn't mean that, either. In reality, Belichick was stuck with no sound option.

In fact, even teams with better defenses than New England have failed in similar circumstances recently.

On Nov. 8, highly regarded coaches Tom Coughlin and Andy Reid essentially did the opposite of what Belichick attempted. They played conservative, no-risk football and had it blow up in their faces when their defenses failed in the closing minutes.

And failed at home, no less.

Many will remember Coughlin's decision to play it safe with 2:55 remaining against San Diego. Up 17-14 and facing a third-and-goal from the Chargers 9-yard line, Coughlin ran the ball and settled for a field goal rather than throw. The Giants went up 20-14 with 2:07 remaining, only to watch San Diego drive 80 yards and score with time to spare.

Later that night, Reid faced a fourth-and-11 and decided to kick a field goal with 4:33 remaining despite being down 20-13. Like Coughlin, Reid gambled that his defense could come up with a stop.

Didn't happen. Dallas rolled up two first downs to run out the clock.

The conservative, follow-the-book formula of coaching didn't work any better for Coughlin or Reid than the seemingly roll-the-dice, baby-needs-some-new-shoes risk that Belichick took.

In fact, it's fair to say that Belichick at least gambled with his best players. That said, the salient point is that he needs to get better defensive players.

Top five
1. New Orleans Saints (9-0): The only thing that will keep them from 10-0 is boredom.
2. Indianapolis Colts (9-0): They may need 13 wins to sew up the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
3. Minnesota Vikings (8-1): After the Saints and Vikes, the NFC drops off the map.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (7-2): Even after sweeps of the Steelers and Ravens, the division title isn't secure.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3): Ben Roethlisberger(notes) has to play smarter than he did vs. Cincy.

Bottom five
28. Oakland Raiders (2-7): The sad part is they have more talent than some contenders.
29. St. Louis Rams (1-8): Steven Jackson's career is slipping away to obscurity.
30. Detroit Lions (1-8): No INTs for Matt Stafford in 51 attempts vs. Minnesota – not bad.
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8): Josh Freeman(notes) has really great composure for his age.
32. Cleveland Browns (1-8): They didn't quit Monday, but they're god-awful.

This and that

• After being shut out Monday night by the Baltimore Ravens, the Browns are on pace to set an NFL record – the kind of mark that could help get head coach Eric Mangini fired. The Browns have scored only 78 points in nine games. At an average of 8.6 points per game, that puts them on pace to score 138 points for the entire regular season. If the Browns do that, they will set the mark for the fewest points scored in a season (excluding the strike-shortened '82 campaign) since the NFL went to 16 games in 1977. The mark is 140 by Seattle in 1992. It's one thing to be bad in the NFL, but when you're bad and your team doesn't score, that's a big problem. One more thing: The anemic Raiders aren't far off the pace, having scored just 88 points so far.

• Staying in Cleveland for a moment, a bigger issue for the organization is that owner Randy Lerner is not considered the most stable guiding force. "He goes from one adviser to the next each month," said one person familiar with Lerner's management style. "He hired Ernie Accorsi last year to help him with the coach search, then he didn't listen to Ernie. It was somebody else who got in his ear."

• Going back to Belichick: It's often noted that he's not the most gracious loser. However, Belichick was particularly gracious in victory recently against Miami. As he walked off the field, Belichick went out of his way to find Dolphins linebacker/defensive end Jason Taylor(notes) to tell Taylor how well he was playing and that Taylor was on the way to the Hall of Fame.

• New England linebacker Junior Seau said Tuesday he expected the Patriots to respond effectively after the controversy over Belichick's decision. "No team I've ever been around responds to being attacked better than this one," Seau said while doing a series of interviews to promote his upcoming series on Versus. Seau, 40, returned to the Patriots earlier this season, his 20th in the NFL. "Call it whatever you want to call it, attacked, whatever. Whatever it is, it's not good out there right now. … Coach Belichick is our leader. He made a call and it's our job to go execute it. We didn't do that and now we have to take the criticism and go back to work." Seau filmed the show "Sports Jobs with Junior Seau" this offseason. It features him doing a series of behind-the-scenes jobs in sports, from construction worker on the new stadium for the Jets and Giants to being a rodeo clown. (He got run over by a bull in that segment.) The show will have a sneak preview Wednesday and will premiere on Dec. 2.

• Kudos to the Washington Redskins for changing their ridiculous policy regarding fans bringing signs to games. The Redskins, who implemented a policy last month disallowing signs inside the stadium, have relented. The only requirement is that the signs be dignified, even if critical.

• Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, four teams have finished 10-6 or better and missed the playoffs (Miami in 2003; Kansas City in '05; Cleveland in '07; New England in '08). There had been dire predictions by some people that there could be a rash of 10-6 teams missing the cut while some 9-7 teams make it by winning a weak division. While that's probably not going to happen this season, the large number of weak teams (there are six clubs at 1-8 or 2-7) could create a unique situation. There could be two 10-win teams missing the playoffs this season. In the AFC, there are currently six teams at 6-3 or better and three more at 5-4. Of the 5-4 teams, all of which would be out of the playoffs right now, Jacksonville and Houston each have four games left against teams with losing records. Baltimore has three such games. That means all three have a reasonable shot at 10 wins. Likewise, there are four teams in the NFC at 6-3 or better and four more at 5-4. Of those, the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons each have four games against teams with losing records, Philadelphia has three and the Giants have two. Could be a brutal finish for a bunch of teams, particularly after seeing Arizona (9-7 in 2008) make the Super Bowl last season.

• A report by Proftooballtalk.com last week that the NFL Players Association has made concessions in the negotiations over a new Collective Bargaining Agreement is somewhat on target … and somewhat off, according to multiple sources. The union does recognize that the schedule will have to increase to 18 games. While there is still some public debate about it, it's privately acknowledged that more games will be part of the next deal. Likewise, the union recognizes that it's a virtual certainty that 2010 will be an uncapped year and that perhaps a dozen teams will play well below the $107 million minimum this season. In fact, most of those teams could field rosters for less than $100 million in total salaries. However, neither of those issues means anything in terms of a new deal on the CBA. "Those things are a given and they have been," said one person familiar with the negotiations. "The issue we're dancing around is the bottom line." That's a reference to the fact that the sides still haven't begun to discuss the central issue, which is what percent do the owners want to pay and what do the players want to take. Currently, players get 59 percent.

• All of that said, the owners lost significant leverage last week with the court decision that both allowed Michael Vick(notes) to keep $16 million in bonus money paid by the Falcons and kept the lawsuit that led to the CBA under the jurisdiction of Judge David Doty. Assuming Doty doesn't retire or die before 2011, the union will more easily be able to decertify and fight any attempt by owners to lock the players out.

• How good has San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis(notes) become this season? According to five general managers and/or scouts, all of them believe Davis (45 receptions, 493 yards, seven touchdowns) should get consideration for the Pro Bowl over Cowboys counterpart Jason Witten(notes) (49, 438, 1). "I mean that as a real compliment, not a criticism of Witten," one scout said. "Davis has been special this season. Always a good blocker, but now he's a real threat in the passing game. He finally seems to know what he's doing." All of them agree that Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez(notes) (44, 501, 4) is the best tight end in the NFC but say that Davis has made huge strides under the tough love of head coach Mike Singletary.