Accuscore: K-Rod adds 10 wins for Mets
The New York Mets made a big splash Tuesday, reaching agreement with closer Francisco Rodriguez on a three-year deal, with an option for a fourth year. The signing comes after a 2008 season during which Rodriguez converted 62 of 69 save opportunities, setting a major-league record for saves in a season.
The Mets were in need of a lights-out closer after watching their bullpen blow 29 save opportunities last year, third worst in the majors. The Mets finished three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East race and one game behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Wild Card spot.
AccuScore simulated the Mets’ 2008 season with Rodriguez as their closer to show what a difference he would have made to their bullpen. According to our simulations, the Mets would have won 10 more games with Rodriguez, finishing with a record of 99-63 rather than 89-73. They would have easily won the East and made the playoffs.
The Mets still would have had blown-save issues due to their poor middle relief, but Rodriguez would have made a significant impact.
The Mets had one of the top offenses in the league last year, and have retained the important pieces of that offense going in to 2009. By adding Rodriguez, the Mets addressed their biggest problem from the 2008 season. Early AccuScore simulations of the 2009 season show the Mets are the favorites to win the NL East and are slightly behind the Cubs for the best record in the National League.
The Angels will receive the Mets' first-round pick in the 2009 draft, plus a compensation pick between the first and second rounds as compensation for losing Rodriguez.
