Scouting report: Angels-Red Sox Game 3
Inside Edge, a leading baseball scouting and information service, will provide scouting reports to Yahoo! Sports throughout the MLB playoffs. Here's their breakdown of Game 3 of the 2008 American League Division Series between the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox.
INSIDE EDGE BREAKDOWN -- ANGELS VS. RED SOX
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Starting Pitchers | ||
| • While his 91 mph fastball has held its own (.759 opponent OPS), Saunders has garnered excellent results with his secondary offerings this season. All three of his off-speed pitches (a low 80’s changeup, a low-80’s slider and a mid-70’s curveball) have held batters to a sub .600 OPS against. Saunders will have his hands full against Boston, however, as the Red Sox rank first in the AL in OPS versus left-handed pitching. The club ranks in the top 10 in the majors versus southpaw fastballs, sliders and changeups. Only curveballs (18th ranked in the majors) seem to give the team some problems. | |
• Against current Red Sox hitters, Saunders has relied heavily on his fastball, throwing it 70 percent of the time for an .831 OPS against. His main off-speed weapon versus Boston has been the curveball (13 percent), which has limited Red Sox batters to a .286 OPS against. | ||
| • After throwing a pain-free bullpen session, Red Sox co-ace Josh Beckett will make his first start of the postseason after being pushed back due to a strained oblique. Beckett has shown excellent command of his 94 mph fastball this season, delivering it for a strike 68 percent of the time (64 percent AL average). Not coincidentally, Beckett has thrown the pitch over 70 percent in 2008, holding opponents to a .237 well-hit average (.333 AL average). Look for the 28 year-old Texan to continue his fastball-centric approach versus the Angels, who have had some difficulty catching up to right-handed heat in 2008 (17 th in the majors in OPS versus righty fastballs). In particular, look for Gary Matthews Jr. (.673 OPS versus right-handed fastballs), Chone Figgins (.753) and Erick Aybar (.775) to see plenty of challenge pitches. | |
• Look for Beckett to entice an aggressive Angels lineup to fish for pitches outside of the strike zone. Los Angeles ranks 12th in the AL in walks, and the team has swung at the third-most pitches thrown outside of the strike zone by right-handed pitchers. Vladimir Guerrero, Brandon Wood, Kendry Morales, Howie Kendrick, Garrett Anderson, Erick Aybar, Jeff Mathis and Torii Hunter have all chased pitches out of the zone above the 25 percent AL average. | ||
Bullpen | ||
 | • Angels right-hander Jose Arredondo has established himself as a late-inning force. The converted infielder has yet to surrender a hit with his changeup (batters are 0-for-26), and opponents have little chance of recovering against Arredondo should they fall behind in the count. Opposing batters have managed a paltry .092 average when behind in the count. | |
 | • A young right-hander has also emerged in Boston’s bullpen, as Manny Delcarmen has used his mid-90’s heater to subdue batters. Opponents have just a .220 well-hit average versus Delcarmen’s fastball, well below the .333 AL average. | |
Hitters | ||
| • While no longer the five-tool force of his younger days, Vladimir Guerrero remains a dangerous hitter capable of changing the complexion of a game with one swing. A notorious bad-ball hitter, Guerrero continues to make hard contact with pitches that most wouldn’t even consider swinging at. The 32 year-old has swung at an amazing 39 percent of pitches thrown out of the strike zone, but he has managed an .809 OPS against such pitches. The AL average is .640. | |
| • Very quietly, Mike Napoli has established himself as one of the better-hitting catchers in the majors. While he swings and misses often (29 percent, above the 20 percent league average), Napoli has absolutely crushed fastballs (.569 slugging percentage) and curveballs (.565), which could lead to some productive at-bats versus Beckett. | |
| • Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury could be in for a rough game versus Saunders. Ellsbury has managed just a .116 well-hit average versus left-handed pitching (.277 AL average), and he has chased curveballs (Saunders’ primary off-speed pitch versus Boston) out of the zone 34 percent of the time (28 percent league average). Ellsbury is 1-for-7 lifetime versus Saunders. | |
| • Conversely, Boston’s right side of the infield probably cannot wait to face Saunders again. Dustin Pedroia (.833 OPS in 18 at-bats) and Kevin Youkilis (.931 in 16 at-bats) have both found success against the Angels lefty. Pedroia (.313 well-hit average versus lefties) and Youkilis (.295) both make a habit out of wearing out southpaw pitching. | |
Image of the day...
Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick has struggled severely in the playoffs so far, going 0-for-9 with five strikeouts. Red Sox pitchers have taken advantage of one particular weak spot of Kendrick's -- the breaking ball down-and-away. Kendrick batted just .139 (5-for-36) against righty curves and sliders located down-and-away in the regular season. He has seen 7 such pitches in the postseason, missing 6 of them and putting one in play weakly:
Key Matchups...
Angels hitters who match up well vs. Beckett | |||
Beckett is a pitcher who throws fast and whose fastball gets hit the hardest when he is down in the zone -- Torii hit .367 this season against low fastballs from right-handed pitchers that topped 90 mph. | |||
Vladimir Guerrero | This season Beckett left 33 percent of his breaking ball in the upper two-thirds of the strike zone. Vlad hammered hanging breaking balls from right-handed pitchers this season -- hitting .404 against them with seven extra-base hits. | ||
Angels hitters who could struggle | |||
While Teixeira has hit right-handed pitchers well this season he has shown a weakness against breaking balls from righties, batting only .169 against them with 28 strikeouts. Beckett should be able to use his outstanding curveball effectively against this switch-hitting first-baseman. | |||
Chone Figgins | Beckett has worked his fastball on the inner third of the plate 35 percent of the time this season; Figgins is hitting .224 with no extra-base hits against inside fastballs from right-handed pitchers this season. | ||
Red Sox hitters who match up well vs. Saunders | |||
Kevin Youkilis | Saunders needs to be razor-sharp to retire Youkilis -- Kevin is hitting .571 with 10 extra-base hits this season when lefties leave a pitch over the heart of the plate. | ||
Dustin Pedroia | Pedroia has slugged an even .500 off of two-strike fastballs from left-handed pitchers this season; Saunders has gone to his fastball 60 percent of the time in two-strike counts. | ||
Red Sox hitters who could struggle | |||
Jacoby Ellsbury | Ellsbury has had a hole in his swing all season against lefty pitching -- he has hit only .146 this year against inside pitches from lefties with a 32 percent chase rate. Saunders has worked his fastball on the inner third 35 percent of the time to lefties this year and has yet to surrender an extra-base hit. | ||
While Lowrie has hit lefties well this season, he has not handled outside pitches from southpaws very well (.200 BA). Saunders has thrown 56 percent of his pitches this season to the outside when facing a right-handed bat. | |||
