NBA Playoff Picture: The East race is going down to the final day

WHAT MATTERED MOST

A subjective ranking of the results that mattered most to the playoff bracket.

1. Miami Heat 124, Cleveland Cavaliers 121 (OT)

This occasionally unwatchable game was the most important of the night by some distance, and our Dan Devine covered it in extensive detail because of it. Facing a Cavs team resting both LeBron James and Kyrie Irving in apparent disregard for the race for the No. 1 seed, the Heat came back from an 11-point deficit after three quarters to take a seven-point lead with 5:26 remaining in regulation. The Cavs came back to force overtime behind a strong performance from Deron Williams (35 points on 15-of-25 FG, nine assists, seven rebounds), but the Heat got out to a strong start in the extra period and held on through two separate four-point plays to avoid elimination from the playoffs.

[Sign up for Yahoo Fantasy Baseball: It’s not too late to get in the game]

The big takeaway from this result is that the Heat will have a chance to make the postseason on the regular season’s final day after an 11-30 start. That’s an impressive accomplishment in itself for a team that many had tabbed for months of tanking midway through the season. Erik Spoelstra figures to get some serious Coach of the Year consideration, and the entire organization should be proud of itself.

Unfortunately, their chances of nabbing one of the East’s last two playoff spots are fairly low. The Heat host the Washington Wizards in Wednesday’s season finale, which is a tough game that could get easier if the No. 4 seed decides to rest key players with nothing at stake. The Heat have to win to have a chance at the postseason, but even then they will need help to get there.

The Indiana Pacers currently sit a game ahead of them in the standings, and would drop behind Miami in a tiebreaker if they finish the season with identical records. But the Pacers host the Atlanta Hawks (a team with its own seed at stake) and can clinch the No. 7 seed with nothing but its own victory.

Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls won their season series against the Heat and can clinch a playoff berth with a home win over the NBA-worst Brooklyn Nets. The good news for Miami is that Chicago already lost to Brooklyn on Saturday and has not earned anyone’s trust.

The loss is a downer for the Cavs, but the fact that LeBron and Kyrie didn’t play just three days after head coach Tyronn Lue said everyone would suit up until they’d clinched the No. 1 seed suggests the defending champions aren’t too worried about finishing second to the Celtics. Nevertheless, Cleveland now sits a game behind the Celtics and can only finish first if they beat the visiting Toronto Raptors (locked in at No. 3) and Boston defeats the visiting Milwaukee Bucks (fighting for their seed) on Wednesday. Don’t be surprised if the Raptors rest a number of players to heighten their chances of avoiding the Cavs in the second round.

2. Boston Celtics 114, Brooklyn Nets 105

A scant five days ago, we were writing obituaries for the Celtics’ chances of topping the East after watching LeBron James dismantle them in their own gym. But then the Cavs became allergic to fourth quarters against the Hawks, and decided to rest their top dudes, and all of a sudden, Boston’s back in the driver’s seat in the race for the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the Eastern playoffs.

The C’s did their part on Monday, sprinting out to a 28-13 first-quarter lead over the admirably scrappy Nets and keeping them at arm’s length for the rest of the contest, leading by as many as 27 points on the way to their 11th win in their last 15 games. All-Star point guard Isaiah Thomas once again ignited Boston’s offense, scoring 27 points on 10-for-21 shooting with four rebounds and three assists in 30 minutes of work:

Boston improved to 52-29, moving a full game ahead of the Cavs for the East’s No. 1 seed. As complicated as the math gets lower down in the Eastern bracket, things are now bone simple for Brad Stevens’ crew: beat the Bucks on Wednesday and you’ve got the top spot.

Even if the Celtics lose, they can still land No. 1, so long as Cleveland loses to the Raptors. If the C’s lose and the Cavs win, though, they both finish at 51-31, and since Cleveland owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Cavs would finish atop the conference once again.

Boston’s win also locked in the Raptors to the East’s No. 3 seed, since Toronto can’t finish better than 51-31 and lost its head-to-head tiebreaker with the Cavs.

3. Indiana Pacers 120, Philadelphia 76ers 111

The Pacers kept rolling on Monday, shooting a blistering 57.6 percent from the field as a team and leading by as many as 21 points in a wire-to-wire win over the lottery-bound Sixers. Over their last five games, a stretch that began with their double-overtime loss to the Cavs, the Pacers are scorching the nets to the tune of 116.5 points per 100 possessions, a rate of offensive efficiency second only to the Golden State Warriors during that span.

Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner handled the Sixers frontline, combining for 38 points on 16-for-23 shooting with 21 rebounds in the win, which improved Indiana to 41-40. The Pacers stayed put in the East’s No. 7 spot, one game behind the Bucks and one game ahead of both the No. 8 Bulls and No. 9 Heat heading into the final day of the regular season.

[Follow Ball Don’t Lie on social media: Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Tumblr]

Coach Nate McMillan got strong play from his bench, keyed by the newly established buddy comedy duo of Lance Stephenson (six points, five assists) and Kevin Seraphin, who continued to take full advantage of the opportunity afforded him by backup center Al Jefferson’s left ankle sprain by pouring in 17 points on 8-for-10 shooting with six rebounds and a steal in 19 1/2 minutes off the pine. The Pacers’ top gun, however, remained All-Star forward Paul George, who maintained his scintillating season-closing form by pouring in a game-high 27 points on 11-for-20 shooting with five assists, two rebounds, two steals and a block in 36 1/2 minutes.

George would have logged more floor time, but he was ejected with 2:59 remaining in the fourth quarter after picking up a second technical foul during an incident involving Gerald Henderson in which the Sixers swingman elbowed George in the throat on a drive to the basket:

They’d each picked up technicals two minutes earlier, after Henderson appeared to pull George to the ground following a collision with the Pacers on offense. The chippiness continued, with George appearing to hit Henderson in the back on the possession before the final scuffle:

After the game, George — who has already been fined over comments about officiating this season — didn’t exactly mince words in detailing his frustration about the refs letting his issue with Henderson boil over, and his disappointment about getting an early gate:

While George was clearly upset enough to be willing to write another check to the league for the fine that is almost certainly forthcoming, he’s got to be pretty pleased about how things are going in the bigger picture. The star forward is hitting his stride at precisely the right time, averaging 30 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.2 steals in 38.3 minutes per game over his last 10 outings, shooting 52.2 percent from the field, 42.9 percent from 3-point range (on 8.4 attempts a night) and 80.7 percent from the free throw line.

He’s been absolutely sensational down the stretch, providing the nightly scoring and playmaking jolt that the Pacers needed to snap out of their late-winter funk and put themselves in position to be a dangerous team come the opening round of the playoffs — provided, of course, they finish the job.

Beat the Hawks on Wednesday, and Indy’s in, as either the No. 6 (if the Hawks also lose tomorrow night to the Charlotte Hornets) or the No. 7 seed. Lose, though, and the Pacers cede control of their postseason destiny to the Heat and Bulls, who could leave George and company on the outside looking in if they both win.

“[Making the playoffs] would mean everything,” George said Monday, according to Nate Taylor of the Indianapolis Star. “This season has been up and down. For us to finally play some good basketball to finish this year out, it would suck to finally figure things out and put our finger on what we want to be and who we are this year and to not make it. That would suck. But, we’re in the driver’s seat right now.”

4. Chicago Bulls 122, Orlando Magic 75

The Bulls entered their final three games looking like a lock to earn a postseason berth, but Saturday’s disappointing loss at the Nets reminded everyone that they’re exceedingly capable of a collapse. There’s still a distinct possibility they’ll lose again on Wednesday to open up an opportunity for the Heat, but the Bulls certainly took care of business on Monday at the United Center. Chicago led by 21 after the first quarter and scored at least 28 in every period, while Orlando shot just 34.5 percent from the field. The result was never in doubt.

The situation is simple enough for the Bulls. If they beat the Nets on Wednesday, they’re in the playoffs. If they win and the Pacers lose to the Hawks, they’re the No. 7 seed. If both teams win, the Bulls are the No. 8 seed. If they lose and the Heat beat the Wizards, the Bulls are out of the playoffs.

Let Dwyane Wade make the point more clearly:

Yes, we’d say that beating the worst team in the NBA in a win-or-go-home scenario is a pretty good test of worthiness.

5. Milwaukee Bucks 89, Charlotte Hornets 79

Congrats to the Bucks, who held the Hornets to just 13 points in the fourth quarter to come from behind and clinch no worse than the No. 6 seed in the East. Giannis Antetokounmpo eked out a triple-double (10 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists) to lead the way, and Milwaukee shot 16-of-28 from beyond the arc to cover for 16 turnovers and just free trips to the free-throw line.

The Bucks trail the Hawks for the No. 5 seed by a half-game (in the loss column) and finish out the campaign on Wednesday at the Celtics in a game that could give the hosts the No. 1 seed. The Hawks won three of four in the season series and will hold the tiebreaker, so the Bucks will have to win and hope Atlanta loses its last two to move up to No. 5. In other words, it’s possible Milwaukee will learn its fate on Tuesday night when Atlanta hosts Charlotte.

If the Hornets win that game, it could be in the Bucks’ best interest to lose on Wednesday. A win over Boston would open up an opportunity for Cleveland to claim the No. 1 seed, which would create a potential second-round matchup with the defending champions. The first-round preference isn’t quite as obvious — the Bucks lost to both the No. 3 Raptors and No. 4 Wizards three of four times this season.

6. Utah Jazz 105, Golden State Warriors 99

It’s easy to explain away this win for the Jazz. The Warriors clinched the NBA’s best record last week and have had nothing to play for beyond easing Kevin Durant back into the lineup. Klay Thompson rested, and the Warriors experimented with some curious rotations.

Whatever. A win at Oracle is impressive in any circumstance, and that’s especially true when Gordon Hayward and Rodney Hood are resting to avoid serious injury.

Utah overcame 48.8 percent shooting from Golden State with six players scoring in double figures and 13 3-pointers. George Hill led the way with 20 points in just 19 minutes, and Rudy Gobert starred with 17 points, 18 rebounds, and two blocks. This win exemplified why many think the Warriors would much rather play the Clippers than the Jazz in the second round. The matchups just don’t work out as well for the No. 1 seed.

Utah’s victory puts pressure on L.A. to win Wednesday’s finale against the Sacramento Kings to lock down home-court advantage in their first round series. The Jazz host the Spurs in their final game, but that one could be easier than it looks if Gregg Popovich decides to ease up on his key players’ workloads like he did on Monday. Utah can only finish fourth if it wins and Los Angeles loses, so the odds are not in its favor.

7. Los Angeles Clippers 125, Houston Rockets 96

The Clippers went on a 24-3 run and won the third quarter 36-12 to turn a close game at the half into a rout. James Harden played only 24 minutes and shot 2-of-9 from the field, and seven Clippers scored in double figures. Houston has had its seeding locked in for a while now and has arguably lost some focus because of it, but this win was still impressive for L.A.

As we wrote in the last blurb, the path is clear enough for the Clippers. Beat the Kings on Wednesday and they’re the No. 4 seed. Lose and they give the Jazz a chance to win home-court advantage in the first round.

8. Portland Trail Blazers 99, San Antonio Spurs 98

Both these teams have their seeds locked in — No. 2 for the Spurs, No. 8 for the Blazers — but they still ended up producing an entertaining game on Monday. Every big-name Spur played roughly 20 minutes, and Kawhi Leonard (18 points on 8-of-11 FG) easily could have taken over if he’d received his normal run. The Blazers sat Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum and Allen Crabbe, but got a career-high 32 points from Shabazz Napier to help win it.

Really, though, the game was about two plays. This dunk for Jonathan Simmons deserves plenty of attention:

And this buzzer-beater from Noah Vonleh off a loose ball goes down as one of the funnier game-winners in recent memory:

9. Washington Wizards 105, Detroit Pistons 101

Washington entered the night locked into the No. 4 seed and let John Wall rest to celebrate. Bradley Beal went crazy with 33 points, and the Wizards shot 50 percent against a Pistons squad that’s seemingly been playing for its summer vacation since the fall.

MVP OF THE DAY
A subjective choice for the player most valuable to his team, on just one day and determined by the NBA playoff picture.

In a normal season, Thomas would be a top MVP candidate and surefire All-NBA First Team guard. Alas, Russell Westbrook and James Harden have rewritten the record books, which means the best the diminutive Celtics star can hope for is a top-five finish in MVP voting and a spot on the All-NBA Second Team. Those are impressive accomplishments, to be sure, but they also somewhat undersell what he has meant to a team that’s now one win from locking up its first No. 1 seed since a time when Rajon Rondo and Ray Allen at least pretended to like each other.

Maybe a member of the Heat deserves this honor for extending the season. After all, Thomas only put up 27 points in a game the Celtics probably could’ve won without him. But this is our last full playoff picture post of the season, and it’s worth giving some attention to a guy who may be a bit overshadowed come awards time.

Dan Devine (@yourmandevine) also contributed to this post.

– – – – – – –

Eric Freeman is a writer for Ball Don’t Lie on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at efreeman_ysports@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!

Follow @FreemanEric