Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer: Buy low/high and sell low/high candidates as we flip to May
The calendar has flipped to May, and many fantasy managers are running out of patience. Truthfully, we are only about 20% of the way through the long, grueling fantasy baseball season, and there is plenty of time for slow starters to turn things around. But for managers sitting in the bottom half of their standings, change can’t come soon enough.
For this reason, the best plan of attack on the trade market is to offer deals to the most disappointing teams in your leagues. Their managers may be willing to shake things up, just for the sake of change. Or they may have lost faith in players whom they coveted in March.
Either way, sending out offers to multiple teams in the bottom half of your standings is a terrific use of your time right now. And here are a few names that could be part of your upcoming trade talks:
Who to Sell Low
Bo Bichette (SS, Toronto Blue Jays)
Bichette has plenty of name value and should fetch a sizable return on the trade market. In fact, some of the recent Bichette deals that can be found on the Yahoo Trade Market page pushed me in the direction of including him in this article. The 26-year-old can be marketed as someone in his prime who is a career .295 hitter and has thus far been felled by a .244 BABIP. Everything in the preceding sentence is true, but there may not be enough category juice with Bichette to make it worth waiting for him to heat up.
The shortstop is amid a four-year decline in home run production, and he does not steal bases at a high enough rate to make a difference in this steals-heavy landscape. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also trending in the wrong direction. Finally, Bichette’s counting stats are dragged down by the fact that the Blue Jays offense is not nearly as potent as it was a few years ago.
Who to Buy Low
Randy Arozarena (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
Simply put, Arozarena can’t be this bad. The outfielder has the third-lowest batting average of any qualified player, which can be largely attributed to a .178 BABIP. He deserves blame for logging a 29.3% strikeout rate that is higher than in previous years, but his batted-ball data is mostly consistent with past results. Having reached the 20-20 plateau in each of the past three seasons, the 29-year-old is clearly someone who can make a massive impact when things are going well. The guess here is that Arozarena can be acquired for a major discount in many leagues and will soon get his season on track.
Who to Sell High
Daulton Varsho (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
This is an easy one. Varsho is an obvious sell-high candidate on the strength of his six homers, three steals and career-high .833 OPS. He is also ranked among the best defensive outfielders in baseball this year, which helps keep his bat in the lineup. However, a look under the hood on Varsho is quite concerning.
The slugger has thus far logged an even lower average exit velocity (86.5 mph) than he did last year. His strikeout rate is also slightly up and his .190 xBA via Statcast is among the lowest of any qualified player. Varsho could fetch a decent trade return right now — but may not even be playable by June.
Who to Buy High
Juan Soto (OF, New York Yankees)
This one won’t be cheap. But as I mentioned last week, making massive 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 offers should be part of the early season playbook. Soto and the Yankees have been the perfect match that many expected. The 25-year-old has been one of baseball’s best hitters for several years, and he seems intent on having a career year while on the verge of free agency. With Yankee Stadium and Aaron Judge by his side, Soto could finish the year with career-best marks in homers, RBI and runs scored.
Ketel Marte (2B, Arizona Diamondbacks)
Marte shouldn’t cost a fortune on the trade market, as he profiles as a boring veteran who produces a good-not-great stat line. And while the preceding comments are accurate, and the 30-year-old is playing some of the best baseball of his career right now. Marte is hitting .306 without the aid of a high BABIP, and with the demise of Corbin Carroll, he has become the most important hitter in a solid Arizona lineup. Acquiring Marte isn’t the type of move that will win your league, but he can be a significant piece of the puzzle.
