AccuScore: Chargers should coast in AFC West

More AFC previews: East | North | South

AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.

LaDainian Tomlinson

(Larry Ignelzi/AP Photo)

San Diego Chargers
In 2008, the Chargers played as poorly as possible, they had a win stolen from them by a bad call, and they had injuries to key players. Still, they managed to win eight games and advance in the playoffs. The Chargers have an easier schedule in 2009 in terms of the quality of opposing run defenses. This should help LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) bounce back from a sub-par 2008 season. The AFC West is one of, if not the, weakest division in the league and the Chargers are the only team in the division with a legit chance of winning 10 or more games.

Oakland Raiders
The Raiders do not have a good defense, but they are substantially better than the Broncos and Chiefs on that side of the ball. They also have a trio of good running backs. The quarterback position should be better in '09 because if JaMarcus Russell(notes) is not better than he was last year, then Jeff Garcia(notes) will likely get more playing time. With Jay Cutler(notes) long gone, the Raiders are expected to improve from five wins to 6-plus wins, good enough for second place in the division. However, they only have an 11-percent chance of making the playoffs which is less than half the chance that other AFC Teams finishing second in their division.

Denver Broncos
Denver had one of the easiest schedules in 2008 and then-quarterback Cutler made the Pro Bowl. Without Cutler and with a slightly tougher schedule in 2009, the Broncos are averaging more than 2.5 fewer wins than the eight they won in '08. The defense allowed 28 points per game in 2008 and even if they improve to allowing 24.5 ppg like AccuScore optimistically projects in 2009, they still are one of the worst defenses in the league. With the status of Brandon Marshall(notes) up in the air, the Broncos are not likely to match their eight wins this year.

Kansas City Chiefs
Matt Cassel(notes) showed he is a capable NFL starter with 3,600-plus yards, 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2008. However, when you consider he played alongside talent that helped produce 50 passing touchdowns and 4,800-plus yards in '07, you could argue that he did not produce the types of stats a good QB would produce in New England. Cassel, who could miss the season opener, does not help the team improve their bad defense nor does his presence make Larry Johnson(notes) any younger. Cassel and more discipline in K.C. can help the team significantly improve on their two wins in '08, but they are still a long way away from making the playoffs (just a 2.8 percent chance).

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