AccuScore: Colts should recapture AFC South

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AccuScore uses past player performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, match-up, and game situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the 2009 season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability each team has of winning each game, winning their division and making the playoffs.

Peyton Manning

(AJ Mast/AP Photo)

Indianapolis Colts
The Colts stumbled out of the gate in 2008 because Peyton Manning(notes) was recovering from injury. They finished the season with nine straight wins. The Colts' 2009 schedule is virtually the same as their 2008 schedule in terms of opponent winning percentage. The AFC South is definitely one of the tougher conferences in the league so AccuScore does not expect the Colts to win 12 games this season, but they have a 68-percent chance of winning the division and a 40-percent chance of winning 11-plus games.

Tennessee Titans
The Titans had a phenomenal 13-win season in '08. AccuScore gives the Titans just a 60-percent chance of winning 9-plus games in '09 for three reasons. First, they lost Albert Haynesworth(notes) via free agency. Second, they have a tougher schedule with seven opponents that made the playoffs in '08; just five of their '08 opponents made the playoffs. Third, their opponents that did not make the playoffs in '08 made more significant upgrades to their teams. Their division is also tougher assuming the Colts key players stay healthy, the Jaguars bounce back from a disappointing '08 and the young Texans continue to compete well.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Less than 12 months ago the Jaguars were a popular Super Bowl pick. When their starting guards were lost to injury the running game stalled. When the running game stalled, quarterback David Garrard(notes) was found in more 3rd-and-long situations where he is not effective. The offense could not sustain long drives which then tired out and exposed the attacking defense. The Jaguars still have the talent to be a good team. If they stay healthy offensively and Maurice Jones-Drew(notes) thrives as the primary running back, then Garrard can return to 2007 form and the Jaguars should be at least a .500 team again.

Houston Texans
The Texans are averaging just 7.7 wins, worse than the eight they won in '08, in part because Jacksonville is bouncing back in 2009 simulations. Statistically speaking, the Texans were "lucky" to win eight games last season considering they were out-scored by opponents by nearly two points per game in '08. The Texans allowed 24.6 points per game last season which was worse than in '07. If quarterback Matt Schaub(notes) can stay healthy and the defense can hold opponents to 23 points or less, then they can finish 8-8 or better. However, in average simulations they allow 24.5 ppg and Schaub misses one or two starts.

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