Three surprise picks for next year's playoffs
Call it parity, competitive balance or the natural cycles of success, but history says that six of the 20 teams that didn't qualify for the 2010 NFL playoffs will do so next year.
Which teams are the best bets to move from outsiders to contenders? We've identified the three types of teams that make the leap and picked our choices for the breakout playoff teams of 2011.
The anomaly: San Diego Chargers (9-7)
Most recent example: 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers ranked No. 1 in the league in total offense and defense, scored the second-most points and had a better point differential than eight of the 12 playoff teams. So why will Philip Rivers(notes) and company be watching from home while division rival Kansas City hosts a playoff game?
Sometimes the answer is as easy as "bad breaks." Much like the 2009 Steelers, who lost a handful of heartbreaking games in the final seconds, San Diego was competitive in most games, but made crucial mistakes at the wrong times. The special teams were historically bad (when they weren't allowing the highest punt-return average since 1976, they were getting blocked at a record rate) and those errors led to key losses that killed the season. The difference between 9-7 and 12-4 is razor thin sometimes.
With much of the same personnel set to return (minus special teams coach Steve Crosby), expect the Chargers to right the ship in 2011.
The builder: Detroit Lions (6-10)
Most recent example: 2010 Atlanta Falcons
At the start of December, the Lions were 2-10 and appeared headed for a third straight winless season on the road and another top-three draft pick. Four straight wins later – two against NFC playoff contenders and two of which were on the road – Detroit improbably changed the entire tone of the franchise. Can they keep it up next season?
A hot finish can often be the catalyst for a future playoff run, as the Falcons showed this season when they built on their three straight wins that closed 2009 and became the top team in the NFC. Detroit doesn't have a 13-3 season in its immediate future, but with a young quarterback (Matthew Stafford(notes)), a top-flight receiver (Calvin Johnson(notes)) and a rising defensive star (Ndamukong Suh(notes)), the future is bright in the Motor City. Finally.
The survivor: St. Louis Rams (7-9)
Most recent example: 2010 Seattle Seahawks
Somebody has to win the NFC West in 2011, so it might as well be the only team that showed improvement in 2010. St. Louis was the surprise of the NFL, going from a single win in '09 to the cusp of the playoffs. Another leap forward could be in order next season. And in a division like the NFC West, it won't take much.
A small leap probably doesn't interest Sam Bradford(notes). The quarterback broke a number of Peyton Manning's(notes) rookie records this season and if he follows the path of the Colts quarterback, his second year in the league will be a massive success. Manning's Colts went from 3-13 in his rookie season to 13-3 the following year. Why can't Bradford do the same?
In retrospect, it was foolish to think that Bradford could lead the Rams into Seattle and win what was essentially a playoff game on Sunday night. It was too much, too soon. There's a silver lining though: Losing a winnable game to the Seahawks may be a better end to the season than getting blown out by New Orleans in the playoffs.
