Shuffle Up: Mike Evans, volume god

Shuffle Up season is here, my friends. Here’s the idea — how would we rank fantasy players if the season were starting right now? These are not weekly ranks, these are rest-of-season ranks.

A few caveats up front. The prices are unscientific in nature, merely used as a way to compare players within their position. I do not compare prices outside of position — a price of a quarterback is only meant to be considered within his positional class. I am generally far less expectant with injury-returning players, so don’t be surprised when I like them less than you do.

Every Shuffle Up is done from scratch. I think it’s counterproductive to justify an old, dated list. I want my current opinions. I considered a modified PPR scoring system for the field players.

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And of course, you’ll disagree with plenty on this list — that’s why we have a game in the first place.

I’ll do quarterbacks and wide receivers in the even weeks, running backs and tight ends for the odd weeks. You can figure out kickers and defenses on your own (keep streaming, streamers; those positions are rarely worth holding for extended periods, and matchups are critical in those streaming decisions).

I reserve the right to edit this list as the day goes along; win the debate, you might win the rank. Comments will follow later on Wednesday.

Have a major disagreement (and a logical reason)? Catch me on Twitter: @scott_pianowski.

Quarterback
$32 Tom Brady
$30 Drew Brees
$30 Matt Ryan
$27 Aaron Rodgers
$26 Andrew Luck
$24 Cam Newton
$22 Ben Roethlisberger
$21 Russell Wilson
$21 Philip Rivers
$20 Kirk Cousins

Can we trust Wilson again for fantasy purposes? His mobility didn’t look 100 percent back against Buffalo, but it sure looks improved. Jimmy Graham is having a wonderful comeback season. Doug Baldwin isn’t scoring like we’d prefer, but he’s still on pace for an 88-1140 line. And given Seattle’s horrible offensive line, maybe the Seahawks have to go back to the “make it up, Russell” offense. How much did Monday’s game get you back into this story? I’ve mostly bought back in, slotting Wilson as QB8 for the rest of the way.

$18 Eli Manning
$18 Derek Carr
$17 Marcus Mariota
$16 Andy Dalton
$16 Matthew Stafford
$16 Dak Prescott
$15 Jameis Winston
$15 Tyrod Taylor
$14 Blake Bortles
$11 Carson Palmer
$9 Joe Flacco
$9 Jay Cutler
$9 Colin Kaepernick
$8 Carson Wentz

What’s not to like about Mariota? He’s thrown for 13 scores — and run in two more — over his last five games, getting particularly cozy with Rishard Matthews. The coming schedule looks friendly, with Green Bay — funnel defense, anyone? — Indy and Chicago on the way. If you want to compare Mariota’s rate stats with his peers, note that he’s ahead of the league average in QB rating, sack rate, TD percentage, YPA and net YPA. And this all comes with an athletic QB who can do something with his legs, too. I know it’s difficult to trust Mike Mularkey at times, but Tennessee has the most diverse, and dangerous, offense in the AFC South. I hope these guys sneak into the playoffs.

I have no real-life defense argument for Bortles, none at all. He can’t get out of his own way in the first quarter of any game, and usually his production comes in garbage time. But that garbage-time production still counts, and at least Jacksonville can boast some quality receivers. Bortles also has a rushing element to his game. On the flip side, the remaing schedule is nasty, and perhaps Chris Ivory is finally going to cut into some of the touchdown distribution (ball security permitting) . . . Prescott’s ceiling is capped by a couple of things — he doesn’t have full rapport with Dez Bryant yet, and Ezekiel Elliott is the staple of the Dallas offense. That said, Prescott is a useful and opportunistic runner, and the Pokes realize how difficult he is to stop on read-option around the goal. And I can’t see how Prescott loses this job in 2016, short of a monstrous slump. The Cowboys don’t want to make a difficult decision, as most teams handle things; they want the play on the field to force the story. Prescott hasn’t taken many ill steps this year. He’s reminding me an awful lot of Russell Wilson, 2012.

$5 Alex Smith
$4 Sam Bradford
$4 Trevor Siemian
$4 Ryan Tannehill
$2 Brock Osweiler
$2 Cody Kessler
$1 Case Keenum
$1 Ryan Fitzpatrick
$1 Bryce Petty
$1 Blaine Gabbert
$1 Tony Romo
$1 Nick Foles
$1 Josh McCown
$1 Jared Goff

Wide Receiver
$44 Antonio Brown
$43 Mike Evans
$42 Julio Jones
$41 Odell Beckham
$40 A.J. Green
$37 Amari Cooper
$35 T.Y. Hilton
$30 Larry Fitzgerald
$30 Doug Baldwin
$28 Brandin Cooks
$28 Alshon Jeffery
$28 Michael Crabtree
$25 Allen Robinson
$25 Michael Thomas

If you want to negatively comment about Evans’s efficiency, that’s fine. He’s not going to wow anyone on a per-target basis, and he might be leaving some chicken on the bone every week. Nonetheless, he’s still putting up exciting counting stats, and the weekly target floor has me giddy. Evans is currently on pace for 206 targets, which puts him in range for the all-time record for looks in a season (Rob Moore, 208). Evans has also seen 11 looks in seven straight games, which is one of the longest streaks in NFL history (full disclosure, the target data only goes back to 1992). We know Tampa Bay’s rushing game is a mess, we know the defense is shaky, and we know Jameis Winston likes to play with his hair on fire. Enjoy your Evans season down the stretch, with a schedule that looks like a dream: the Bears, Chargers and Saints are still to come.

[Week 10 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

I expect Michael Thomas to be the best New Orleans receiver next year, and maybe the baton will be passed before the end of 2016. He can run everything in the route tree, winning with his speed, route-running savvy, or his size. Drew Brees already trusts him on 50-50 balls — even when Thomas doesn’t look open, consider him open.

$24 Jarvis Landry
$24 Stefon Diggs
$24 Jordy Nelson
$24 Donte Moncrief
$22 DeAndre Hopkins
$21 Emmanuel Sanders
$20 Brandon Marshall
$20 Dez Bryant
$20 Kelvin Benjamin
$19 Demaryius Thomas
$18 Jordan Matthews
$18 Tyrell Williams
$17 Julian Edelman
$17 Davante Adams

I own Philip Rivers in a few spots, and I’m trying to add Tyrell Williams to the mix. Sometimes you need to simplify your plausible upside, get behind a combination that has explosive potential. San Diego already has Denver off the schedule, and the rest of the slate, even with a pesky bye, looks fun: Miami, Houston, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Oakland, Cleveland. With Hunter Henry off a concussion, Antonio Gates compromised and Travis Benjamin dinged up, Williams looks like the clear go-to downfield option in Bordertown.

$16 Randall Cobb
$16 Willie Snead
$16 Golden Tate
$16 Terrelle Pryor
$15 Marvin Jones
$13 Ty Montgomery
$13 Kenny Britt
$13 Mike Wallace
$12 Jamison Crowder
$10 John Brown
$10 J.J. Nelson
$10 Jeremy Maclin

On film, Crowder has impressed me all year. He’s got ridiculous lateral movement, the perfect type of break quickness that you want from a slot receiver. He has the full trust of Jay Gruden and Kirk Cousins, too. Alas, for Crowder to keep a lofty fantasy standing, he might need some of the bigger tickets in Washington (Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson) to encounter problems. The Crowder fan in me wanted to rank him higher. And yes, I do have Crowder higher than Jackson. But this is an offense with many mouths to feed; Crowder doesn’t have the skill set that’s likely to translate to a bunch of touchdowns; and Cousins hasn’t been efficient in the red zone, either. If you play in a full-point PPR format, you have my permission to add a few bucks to the Crowder price.

As you probably have noticed, Montgomery now qualifies at RB and WR in the Yahoo game. He’ll be Shuffled Up every week! I couldn’t get too invested in his game right now because he still doesn’t have a touchdown; the Packers would prefer to move him out of the backfield; and the receiver pool is rather crowded. But Montgomery’s floor isn’t bad, either; at least he seems to have the trust of his quarterback and his coach . . . Britt’s grown up quite a bit through the years, and is having a bankable fantasy season at age 28, despite all the crumbling things around him in Los Angeles. Britt’s weekly yardage floor is very high, and fantasy is a game about consistency as much as anything . . . I couldn’t bury Jones too much in Detroit, because when the Lions want to go downfield, he’s their guy. Perhaps the short-passing game was more critical at Minnesota last week because of the venue and opponent. There are some fun spots on the Lions schedule to come, including a New Orleans date in Week 13. With Detroit on bye, it might be a good time to inquire about a Jones buy-low.

$9 Cole Beasley
$9 Steve Smith
$9 Sterling Shepard
$7 Chris Hogan
$7 Tavon Austin
$7 Will Fuller
$7 Robert Woods
$7 Quincy Enunwa
$7 Mohamed Sanu
$7 DeSean Jackson
$7 Corey Coleman
$7 Rishard Matthews
$5 Kendall Wright
$5 Travis Benjamin

At some point a bad start has to be viewed as a bad season; I need a prove-it game before Jackson gets a better ranking in DC . . . If you believe in Mariota, you need to believe in Matthews, too, the team’s most consistent receiving scorer. And finally, Andre Johnson is out of the way . . . Seattle was missing key defensive personnel in the Monday nighter, but nonetheless Woods looked dynamic, showing intermediate juice and a growing rapport with Tyrod Taylor. Woods might be easier to acquire now than you’d suspect, given that Buffalo can’t help us in Week 10. I’m not expecting a miracle comeback from Sammy Watkins this year.

$4 Sammie Coates
$4 Cameron Meredith
$4 Eli Rogers
$3 Allen Hurns
$3 Marqise Lee
$3 Pierre Garcon
$3 Anquan Boldin
$2 Brandon LaFell
$2 Taylor Gabriel
$2 Eddie Royal
$2 Tyler Lockett
$2 Adam Thielen
$2 Kenny Stills
$2 Dontrelle Inman
$2 Quinton Patton
$2 Dorial Green-Beckham
$2 Phillip Dorsett
$2 DeVante Parker
$1 *Sammy Watkins
$1 Brian Quick
$1 Terrance Williams
$1 Adam Humphries
$1 Torrey Smith
$1 Seth Roberts
$1 Cordarrelle Patterson
$1 Nelson Agholor