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Scouting Notebook: Run-and-Shoot Ravens?

So much to cover off the only important preseason week. Next week is strictly for show even by August standards.

The run-and-shoot Ravens? Baltimore threw on 19 of its first 21 plays, if you count Flacco runs. The third preseason game is typically when you unveil your base offense. The odds of the Ravens being a 60 percent pass team (league average is 55 percent) jumped from zero to about 30 percent, so draft accordingly. Note that this kind of split would render Willis McGahee(notes) useless.

Jeremiah Johnson(notes) seems like the hedge play against Arian Foster(notes), who is shooting up draft boards but who is still two opening day fumbles away from losing his job. Steve Slaton(notes) seems cemented as the third-down back and thus is of very marginal value.

I would not draft Knowshon Moreno(notes) in the first four rounds considering the uncertain state of his hamstring (hasn't even practiced in a month). Remember, Moreno wasn't good even when healthy last year and was badly outplayed by Correll Buckhalter(notes) (back). Lance Ball(notes) may start the year at tailback for the Broncos considering LenDale White(notes) is suspended four games (plus White is a poor runner).

Larry Johnson(notes) got a leg up on Ryan Torain(notes) for the very attractive backup spot to Clinton Portis(notes), whose post-concussive head is a ticking time bomb.

LaDainian Tomlinson(notes) has shown enough all summer to be a major pain for all Shonn Greene(notes) owners, as predicted by me since the spring. Not saying it should be, just saying it is.

Tim Hightower(notes) is the Cardinals starter. Maybe this is a technicality, but you can't draft Beanie Wells(notes) in the second round in the face of this wind.

The market is Johnny Knox(notes) crazy now. I was there before most anyone. But if you can't draft him as your No. 3 receiver, do not draft him.

Anthony Dixon(notes) (6-foot-1, 233 pounds) looks like the Frank Gore(notes) handcuff, not Brian Westbrook(notes).

Dante Rosario(notes) is on the field on third downs and flashed some downfield ability. Only draft one TE – and Rosario shouldn't be in the top 12. But make sure you monitor him and are ready to pounce via free agency if need be in September.

Greg Camarillo(notes) went to Stanford, so picking up the Vikings offense will be no challenge. I'd bet against Bernard Berrian(notes) and I can't bet yet on Javon Walker(notes), either. Camarillo has a one-in-three chance of leading the Vikings in catches and that's not currently reflected in his market price.

There's talk aobut the Patriots going with three tight ends to help generate a running game. But why not just go run and shoot like in 2007? Tom Brady(notes) could be enormous this year, but he has to fight the headwind of the Jets and Bills pass defense.

Ignore Sam Bradford's(notes) big game. I can't see being happy about starting any Rams skill player and that includes Steven Jackson, relative to his first- or second-round price tag.

I'm at the point now where I think Jermichael Finley(notes) is going to be the best receiver on the Packers this year. Even if you draft him as the first TE, which you will still not need to do unless I'm in your league, I can't knock it. Quick – name another Packers viable red-zone target.

Joseph Addai(notes) is a steal in most drafts. Donald Brown(notes) is really just another backup running back. Who has a better set-up than Colts starting RB?

We dodged the Pierre Garcon(notes) injury coverup (he played and scored against the Packers) but now we have to worry that the Colts are being coy with Dallas Clark's(notes) status. Twice bitten (Marvin Harrison(notes) and Anthony Gonzalez(notes)), thrice shy.

Before you draft Brandon Marshall(notes) consider the standard regression for a Pro Bowl WR changing teams in free agency is 38 percent less catches and 19 percent less yards per game vs. 15 percent and 13 percent less, respectively, for All-Pro receivers staying on the same team.

Chris Ivory making the Saints roster would be good news for Pierre Thomas(notes) owners because Ivory doesn't profile as a better goal-line back than Thomas and thus would cement Thomas in that role as much as anything can be cemented in Sean Payton's head.

Where does Chiefs rookie Dexter McCluster(notes) (listed as a WR) qualify for fantasy considering he had eight rushes this week? Let the arguing begin.

I'm not going to declare victory on Kevin Kolb(notes) (zero TD passes) based on preseason. But now you have a pretext for the pause you should have had all summer.

Peyton Hillis(notes) gets another bump up, especially for his receiving (4-40) in what looks to be a pop-gun Cleveland passing offense (7.6 yards per COMPLETION vs. Detroit).

Don't trust Carson Palmer(notes) as a starter in even 12-team leagues. Eli Manning(notes) over Palmer in my book, easy considering the Giants look like they can't run or defend better than in December '09. The Bengals don't seem like a solid bet to throw enough or aggressively enough.

Can't help you with Maurice Jones-Drew's(notes) health status except to say that I'd be very relieved if someone else took him in the top half of the first round were I to pick in the bottom half.

After watching them against a poor Jaguars defense, I'm convinced we won't be happy owning any Bucs this year.

Dwayne Bowe(notes) is the poor man's Roddy White(notes) – just about as good and considerably cheaper. I love White, too. White over Greg Jennings(notes), for example.

Steelers are going to be terrible without Ben Roethlisberger(notes), I've decided. Byron Leftwich(notes) isn't good. Dixon is a novice that the Steelers will be forced to play around via a running game too mediocre to generate sufficient points. Rashard Mendenhall(notes) can't carry a team versus opponents geared up to stop him.

Michael Bush(notes) is in no-man's land until we have definitive word on his return following thumb surgery. Bump him down in the interim. Do not move up Darren McFadden(notes), who is Reggie Bush(notes) 2.0 (not a compliment) either way.

Michael Salfino writes for the Wall Street Journal and is a regular contributor to Yahoo! Sports.

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