So much to cover off the only important preseason week. Next week is strictly for show even by August standards.
The run-and-shoot Ravens? Baltimore threw on 19 of its first 21 plays, if you count Flacco runs. The third preseason game is typically when you unveil your base offense. The odds of the Ravens being a 60 percent pass team (league average is 55 percent) jumped from zero to about 30 percent, so draft accordingly. Note that this kind of split would render Willis McGahee(notes) useless.
Jeremiah Johnson(notes) seems like the hedge play against Arian Foster(notes), who is shooting up draft boards but who is still two opening day fumbles away from losing his job. Steve Slaton(notes) seems cemented as the third-down back and thus is of very marginal value.
I would not draft Knowshon Moreno(notes) in the first four rounds considering the uncertain state of his hamstring (hasn't even practiced in a month). Remember, Moreno wasn't good even when healthy last year and was badly outplayed by Correll Buckhalter(notes) (back). Lance Ball(notes) may start the year at tailback for the Broncos considering LenDale White(notes) is suspended four games (plus White is a poor runner).
Dante Rosario(notes) is on the field on third downs and flashed some downfield ability. Only draft one TE – and Rosario shouldn't be in the top 12. But make sure you monitor him and are ready to pounce via free agency if need be in September.
Greg Camarillo(notes) went to Stanford, so picking up the Vikings offense will be no challenge. I'd bet against Bernard Berrian(notes) and I can't bet yet on Javon Walker(notes), either. Camarillo has a one-in-three chance of leading the Vikings in catches and that's not currently reflected in his market price.
There's talk aobut the Patriots going with three tight ends to help generate a running game. But why not just go run and shoot like in 2007? Tom Brady(notes) could be enormous this year, but he has to fight the headwind of the Jets and Bills pass defense.
I'm at the point now where I think Jermichael Finley(notes) is going to be the best receiver on the Packers this year. Even if you draft him as the first TE, which you will still not need to do unless I'm in your league, I can't knock it. Quick – name another Packers viable red-zone target.
We dodged the Pierre Garcon(notes) injury coverup (he played and scored against the Packers) but now we have to worry that the Colts are being coy with Dallas Clark's(notes) status. Twice bitten (Marvin Harrison(notes) and Anthony Gonzalez(notes)), thrice shy.
Before you draft Brandon Marshall(notes) consider the standard regression for a Pro Bowl WR changing teams in free agency is 38 percent less catches and 19 percent less yards per game vs. 15 percent and 13 percent less, respectively, for All-Pro receivers staying on the same team.
Chris Ivory making the Saints roster would be good news for Pierre Thomas(notes) owners because Ivory doesn't profile as a better goal-line back than Thomas and thus would cement Thomas in that role as much as anything can be cemented in Sean Payton's head.
Don't trust Carson Palmer(notes) as a starter in even 12-team leagues. Eli Manning(notes) over Palmer in my book, easy considering the Giants look like they can't run or defend better than in December '09. The Bengals don't seem like a solid bet to throw enough or aggressively enough.
After watching them against a poor Jaguars defense, I'm convinced we won't be happy owning any Bucs this year.
Steelers are going to be terrible without Ben Roethlisberger(notes), I've decided. Byron Leftwich(notes) isn't good. Dixon is a novice that the Steelers will be forced to play around via a running game too mediocre to generate sufficient points. Rashard Mendenhall(notes) can't carry a team versus opponents geared up to stop him.
Michael Bush(notes) is in no-man's land until we have definitive word on his return following thumb surgery. Bump him down in the interim. Do not move up Darren McFadden(notes), who is Reggie Bush(notes) 2.0 (not a compliment) either way.
Michael Salfino writes for the Wall Street Journal and is a regular contributor to Yahoo! Sports.