16 playoff teams, 16 questions: West
The NBA playoffs officially begin Saturday, which comes as a shock to those of us out West who thought we'd been watching them for eight weeks.
Lakers. Hornets. Spurs. Jazz. Rockets. Suns. Mavericks. Nuggets. All of them should feel proud they're still standing and a little nervous that they've got to slug it out for another 1½ months just to see if one of them can survive long enough to reach the NBA Finals.
The competition is such this season that seeds determine home-court advantage, but not favorites.
"However you want to slice it, Dallas is just as good as New Orleans," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "I really don't even think there will be any upsets at all.
"It will be so-and-so beat so-and-so."
With that, let's take a look at the pressing questions facing each of these eight so-and-sos.
8. Denver Nuggets: Are the Nuggets capable of defending well enough to win?
Yes. But they probably won't. At least not long enough to win four games against the Lakers.
No team has been more difficult to read this season. When sufficiently enthused, the Nuggets play aggressive, force turnovers, rebound strong and typically wear down opponents with their relentless pace. Not often enough, however, have the Nuggets been sufficiently enthused.
Typical head-scratching Nuggets moment: They score 168 points to rout the Seattle SuperSonics then three weeks later, in the midst of their playoff push, give up 151 to them and lose.
Teams that move the ball well have had their way with Denver. The Lakers? They often move the ball well.
That said, the Nuggets shouldn't be dismissed completely. Lakers coach Phil Jackson certainly wasn't looking forward to matching up with them. Carmelo Anthony has something to prove after his latest misstep and Allen Iverson is particularly amped to face Kobe Bryant.
"If you're scared," Iverson said, "get a dog."
In the meantime, the Nuggets should make this a fun series. Let's see if they're disciplined enough to win it.
7. Dallas Mavericks: Was swapping Devin Harris for Jason Kidd a colossal money-draining, franchise-sinking, shortsighted blunder?
Not necessarily. The Mavericks have preached patience since acquiring their new old point guard, even if they haven't always shown it themselves. Fortunately for them, Kidd has begun to look increasingly comfortable directing Dallas' offense.
Avery Johnson can still be too controlling at times, and Kidd's errant jump shot – along with his occasional reluctance to use it – won't help the Mavericks in the halfcourt. But this is not a team anyone wants to face in any round.
Even while playing on a gimpy ankle, Dirk Nowitzki seems to have regained the confidence he lost during last season's first-round flameout against Golden State. Some of that has to be attributed to Kidd's battle-tested leadership.
Whether Johnson or Nowitzki, these Mavericks have always been at their best when they have something to prove, when they don't have to shoulder the burden of expectations. The problem: They've played well enough in recent weeks that it's now difficult to label them underdogs.
6. Phoenix Suns: Does Shaquille O'Neal have enough left in the tank to deliver on his promise to get the Suns "over the hump"?
We'll find out soon enough. Phoenix brought in the Big Shaq-tus to beat the Spurs, and he'll get his opportunity starting Saturday. O'Neal is already 2-0 against Tim Duncan since joining the Suns, hurting the Spurs on both ends of the floor.
Amare Stoudemire has benefited considerably by moving back to power forward. He's nearly impossible to guard and, unlike O'Neal, it doesn't help to send him to the foul line. If Stoudemire doesn't neglect his rebounding and defensive duties and avoids doing something stupid, like putting his fist through Bruce Bowen's mug, and Grant Hill is able to stay healthy enough – a sizeable concern given his groin problems – to help guard Tony Parker, the Suns will be hard to beat.
Another possible worry: Stoudemire and O'Neal ran into foul trouble in both games against the Spurs, but were able to play through it. Next time, they might not be so lucky.
Phoenix at least has this much going for it: O'Neal is motivated and reasonably fit. Ask Dwyane Wade the difference that can make.
5. Houston Rockets: Will Tracy McGrady finally end his one-and-done run of postseason failure?
Without Yao Ming at his side? It's not likely.
Yes, the Rockets have played far better than expected without Yao. Yes, their 22-game winning streak provided great material for the season-ending highlight DVD. But there's a reason why every other West playoff team wanted to draw them in the first round.
At some point, teams inevitably need to throw the ball inside to settle their offense and all the finger wagging in the world from Dikembe Mutombo isn't going to help solve that problem.
Houston also expects to be without point guard Rafer Alston for at least two games, and Shane Battier and McGrady have their own nagging injuries. The Rockets have weathered a lot, but this appears to be too much. T-Mac, however, can relax. It will be hard to fault him for this early exit.
4. Utah Jazz: Do they need to start packing their pillows, or what?
At home, the Jazz look as dominant as any team this side of the Boston Celtics. On the road? Not so much.
Utah has only a 17-24 record away from Salt Lake City and that's not going to cut it for a team that might not have home-court advantage for any series.
This has been a season-long source of frustration, particularly because the Jazz can't explain it. They're young, but not young enough to use that as an excuse. Not when they reached the conference finals a year ago.
Losing their 21st consecutive game in San Antonio on Wednesday assured the Jazz they'll have to open the playoffs about three hours east in Houston. Utah also has other concerns than the locale: Deron Williams is still dinged up because of the hit he took from Carmelo Anthony, and Mehmet Okur could possibly be suspended for the series' opening game because of the above-the-shoulders shot he gave Spurs center Fabricio Oberto.
The Jazz can still get past the Rockets, but after that? If they can't put their road woes in the rearview mirror, they'll be spending the rest of the summer at home.
3. San Antonio Spurs: Are they capable of scoring more than 80 points? Not including games against the Nuggets?
The Spurs' decade of success has been built on the philosophy that defense wins championships. A bad offense, the Spurs have learned this season, can also lose them.
Manu Ginobili is enjoying the best season of his career and Tony Parker can still carve up opposing defenses as well as any point guard in the league, but the Spurs have labored for points on more than a few nights. Some of that falls on Tim Duncan, who has looked a bit bored with the regular season since, oh, December.
But while Duncan is easily capable of waking from his lull, San Antonio is going to need more contributions from its role players. That hasn't been easy with Brent Barry and Robert Horry sidelined; their outside shooting typically helps space the floor for Duncan.
Some good news for the Spurs: Barry, though admitting he's not up to speed yet, played well at the end of Wednesday's rout of Utah. The bad news: If Big Shot Rob doesn't look good in practice this week, he might not even be on the playoff roster. Even worse news: No Big Shot Rob means Suns fans will have to direct all their anger at Bruce Bowen.
2. New Orleans Hornets: Is it too much to expect the Hornets to march all the way to the NBA Finals during their first trip to the playoffs together?
Yes. Tyson Chandler was right last month when he politely pointed out that a number of Hornets have playoff experience, including himself. But the group hasn't fought such battles together, and that usually counts for something, particularly when it's entering said playoffs having lost four of its past six games.
The Hornets' best player hasn't spent a single minute in the postseason, though Chris Paul probably won't need long to get comfortable on the bigger stage. He's played well enough to finish no worse than second in MVP balloting and the last time a top-two MVP candidate was bounced out of the first round was…well, OK, last season.
Paul, however, is far from the Hornets' biggest worry. Their bench is thin, particularly if Chandler finds his way into foul trouble, and their defense has been, in the words of David West, "non-existent" the past couple of weeks.
1. Los Angeles Lakers: When will Andrew Bynum return?
A better question: Do the Lakers care? By now the Lakers have demonstrated that they likely have enough to survive a playoff run through the rough West terrain without their young center. Pau Gasol has been near-perfect in the triangle offense and Lamar Odom poses matchup problems for opposing forwards, big and small.
Bynum's last medical update didn't sound too promising. He said last week his knee remained unstable, and the Lakers certainly don't seem to be expecting him back for the first round of the playoffs. If Bynum does eventually return, he'll need time to regain some rhythm and adjust to playing with Gasol. Trying to do that in the playoffs won't be easy.
So, are the Lakers better off without Bynum? No. At the least, he'll provide a little shot-blocking and rebounding, and he'll have six fouls to offer should Los Angeles meet up with Tim Duncan or Shaquille O'Neal. But the last couple of months have proved that while Bynum would still be a welcome addition to the Lakers' rotation, he isn't a necessity.
