NASCAR odds, picks, predictions: From Richard Petty to Chase Elliott, Dover loves champs
NASCAR started racing at Dover in 1969, and from 1971-2020, the Monster Mile was host to two Cup races per season.
The first 18 Dover races were won by men who'd end up in the NASCAR Hall of Fame. It was usually Richard Petty
Of the past 27 Dover races, 26 have been won by a current or future Hall of Famer (Alex Bowman is the lone question mark) and all but two were won by either an established or future Cup champ.
Pedigree, folks, we're looking for pedigree. But then again, that's no fun. Doesn't pay great, either.
NASCAR SCHEDULE: Is there a NASCAR race today? A NASCAR TV schedule for this weekend at Dover
This week, we're changing things up and borrowing a bit from NASCAR's sports-car arm, IMSA. That's right, co-drivers. But one goal ... to look smarter than the other guy.
Let's get to it.
NASCAR predictions: Best bet
Ryan: The best bet each week is to pick the pole winner to win Stage 1. Trust me. But since this was written before qualifying, that's not on the table.
Instead, I'm looking at the group winner in Group 4, comprised of Alex Bowman (+225), Chris Buescher (+250), Brad Keselowski (+275) and Bubba Wallace (+300). Bowman missed last year's race, but his previous three Dover finishes? Fifth, first, fifth. I'll take the Showman at greater than 2-to-1 odds.
Ken: Since you brought group bets to the table, why not? I'm looking at Hard Rock's Group 2: Denny Hamlin (+190), Christopher Bell +260), Ryan Blaney (+300) and Chase Elliott (+300).
This is hardly a slam dunk, of course, but Chase a very good Dover record, has been on an excellent recent run (if you throw out Talladega, which I do) and, remember (?), pedigree.
Top 10
Ryan: Josh Berry is +260 for a top 10 and that's a ridiculously good number for a guy with three top-five finishes and a win in three Xfinity Series starts at the Monster Mile. That equates to an average finish of 1.7, his best mark at any track.
Ken: Pro tip to the Josh Berry takers. He's not lining up next to Brandon Jones, Sheldon Creed and Hailie Deegan this weekend. I like to draw a line on a graph, from left to right with the guys who have the best shot at a top 10, from bottom to top with those who pay best. My line has intersected with Daniel Suarez at friendly +450.
Top 5
Ryan: Chase Elliott is back, but apparently the fine folks at Hard Rock Bet haven't been told yet. The pride of Dawsonville has finished in the top five on nine occasions in 13 career starts at Dover and he's getting 2-to-1 odds to do it on Sunday? Yeah, I'm in.
Ken: I like Bubba Wallace at +550. Throw out the mess at Talladega last week and he's been very solid almost everywhere. And over the past few years at Dover he hasn't sucked. Not the noisiest of ringing endorsements, but whaddaya want at +550?
Who will win the NASCAR race at Dover?
Ryan: So tempted to double down on Elliott at 12 to 1 but give me Ross Chastain at +750. He won there in 2022 in a Gen-7 car and it just feels like he's due after a strong run, yet disappointing finish a couple of weeks ago at Texas.
Ken: I was really set on Chase Elliott and glad I don't have to look like I'm piggy-backing on Dawsonville's new favorite son. A C-note to win $1,200? A sawbuck to win $120?
In today's economy, how often do they give away money? OK, quite often, but not at the betting window. Gimme Billy Clyde Elliott and the pedigree.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds this week at Dover: Best bets, values, winner picks
