Michigan football vs. Purdue: A big night for Blake Corum in Big Ten title game rematch?
Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football's Week 10 matchup vs. Purdue on Saturday in Ann Arbor:
Fast facts
Matchup: No. 2 Michigan (8-0, 3-0 Big Ten) vs. Purdue (2-6, 1-4).
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Saturday; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.
TV/radio: NBC; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).
Line: Wolverines by 32½.
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Injury report
Michigan: Probable: RB Kalel Mullings, Questionable: DB Zeke Berry, TE Marlin Klein.
Purdue: Out Week 9 vs. Nebraska: WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen, OL Luke Griffin, DL Damarjhe Lewis, OLB Scotty Humpich.
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Scouting report
When Michigan has the ball: Perhaps fifth-year senior offensive lineman and captain Trevor Keegan put it best when talking about the offense: “I was talking to the guys after the Michigan State game: It was like, 'Would you rather drive by car or take a private jet?,' ” Keegan said. “We don’t have to rush for 300 yards. If we’re passing and J.J. (McCarthy) is throwing three touchdowns and 300 yards, and we’re winning and we’re kicking tail, I’m totally all right with that. We don’t got to rush for 300 yards. Obviously we want to get the rushing attack a little bit better and clean up the run-fits, but we got 9 back there slinging it like that. It doesn’t really matter.”
McCarthy leads the nation in QBR (93.8) and is second in completion percentage (78.1%), to go with 1,799 passing yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions. Roman Wilson is tied for second in the nation with 10 receiving touchdowns, while Michigan's tight end tandem of Colston Loveland and AJ Barner outgained MSU by themselves on Oct. 21.
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When Purdue has the ball: It will be a different offensive look than Michigan has seen; the Boilermakers have an Air Raid scheme under first-year offensive coordinator Graham Harrell, a disciple of the late Mike Leach at Texas Tech. "They are a little bit of an outlier offensively, particularly in the Big Ten West, with tempo, spread, as much as they throw the ball," U-M defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said Wednesday. "They do run it, but it’s a spread passing team. It's one of the first we played like that. A lot of people have been slowing the game down on us.”
Even though the Air Raid looks different, Purdue's attack has been no more potent than the rest of the muck that is the Big Ten West: The Boilermakers rank 95th in points per game (21.9), 90th in yards per game (348.8), 92nd in yards per rush (3.7) and 82nd in passing yards per game (215.5) — and they haven't seen a defense as dominant as U-M's. The Wolverines rank No. 1 in the nation in points per game (5.9), yards per game (227.8) and red-zone scoring (42.9%).
Know the foe
Card's in the deck: Purdue opened the season with high hopes after landing Texas transfer quarterback Hudson Card. In 21 games in Austin, Card completed 65.5% of his passes for 1,523 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interception. Not so much in West Lafayette: The 6-foot-2, 210-pound junior has completed 165 of 278 passes (59.4%) for 1,717 yards, eight touchdowns and seven picks as a Boilermaker. His top target has local ties; sophomore Deion Burks, who leads the team in catches (29), yards (426) and touchdowns (five), is from Belleville.
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Walters falters? The Ryan Walters era's start has left a bit to be desired. A highly regarded defensive mind, Walters spent three years as defensive coordinator at Missouri (2018-20) and two years in the same role at Illinois (2021-22) before Purdue hired him. He brought Kevin Kane with him from Champaign as defensive coordinator, but the Boilermakers have allowed 31 points or more in five of six losses.
Two-headed backfield: Though the Boilermakers spread it out, they have a pair of tailbacks who've been effective in Devin Mockobee and Tyrone Tracy Jr. Mockobee, a sophomore and former walk-on, leads the team in carries (112) and yards (520) to go with four touchdowns. Tracy, a sixth-year senior, transferred from Iowa before the 2022 season and has had more production the past two months than his first five years combined: 60 carries for 325 yards, a team-best 5.4 yards per carry and a team-high five touchdowns.
Tony Garcia's two cents
Block out the noise: While nothing in U-M's sign-stealing scandal is yet official — the Wolverines have yet to even be served a notice of allegations — it's clearly not good. It shouldn't be up to the players to answer it, but where better than the field? The Wolverines can leave no doubt about who the better team is and that it's because of talent and scheme, not other reasons.
We've made it: November should be time for Michigan to play a team that can compete for more than 20 plays —J.J. McCarthy has thrown a fourth-quarter pass against just one foe (Rutgers) and Blake Corum doesn't have a fourth-quarter carry in Big Ten play — but this week's game isn't it. U-M reaches the true meat of its schedule over the next three weeks: at Penn State, at Maryland and Ohio State in Ann Arbor for what's on track as a matchup of undefeateds.
Prediction
The Wolverines have endured two weeks of hot takes. Saturday, they'll get to take out their frustrations on a cold, blustery evening. U-M forces three turnovers, Corum tops 100 yards for the first time in more than a month and the Wolverines steamroll another opponent to keep McCarthy in the thick of the Heisman Trophy race. The pick: U-M 48, Purdue 10
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football vs. Purdue: Scouting report, prediction
