Louisville basketball 10-game ACC comparison: Where Kenny Payne's team stands vs 2022-23
Kenny Payne is squinting hard enough.
His Louisville men's basketball team is not much better off now, 10 games into ACC play, than it was during what went down as the worst season in modern program history, but the second-year head coach sees improvement.
"I look at the good," Payne told The Courier Journal on Monday. "But I also understand that we've got to fix the bad."
The good, Payne said, includes the emergence of junior Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, who in his second go-around with the Cardinals is averaging 4.1 more points per game, with a 7.9% boost to his field-goal percentage, and has surpassed his rebounding totals from an injury-shortened 2022-23 campaign.
Another returner, redshirt sophomore Mike James, has increased his scoring output and is committing fewer turnovers. And the freshman class has shown more promise than last year's bunch.
But that's about it as far as positives go. Meanwhile, the negatives are piling up.
Yes, U of L (6-15, 1-9 ACC) has four more wins now than it did this time last year, at which point it was still looking for its first victory in conference play. Through the first 10 games against league opponents, its average grade on college hoops statistician Bart Torvik's website, which uses a scale of one to 100, has risen from 27 in 2022-23 to 44 this season.
It has been more competitive — but not by much.
The Cards had an average scoring margin of -14.9 points across the first 10 conference games of 2022-23. This season, they cut it to -11.9. But they are faring worse in a metric Torvik uses to tracks teams' leads and deficits.
During the first 10 ACC games of 2022-23, Louisville, on average, trailed opponents by 7.7 points. In 2023-24, that number has grown to -8.3.
"We have to continue to get better, continue to develop and continue to try to play winning basketball — not just play basketball," Payne said.
Before diving into our 10-game comparison, one final note: KenPom.com ranks U of L's ACC schedule to this point as the toughest in the conference in terms of adjusted efficiency (+16.38), with all but one opponent sitting among its top 75 as of Wednesday morning.
Last season, only five of the Cards' first 10 league games were against KenPom top 75 teams. Four opponents finished 118th or worse.
A mixed bag offensively
Louisville scored 62.1 points per game on 41.4% shooting (33.9% from 3) during its first 10 ACC contests of the 2022-23 season. Its average offensive efficiency rating on KenPom, which calculates how many points teams accumulate per 100 possessions, was 91.1.
Growth on that end during the first 10 conference matchups of 2023-24 was marginal. And that's despite the Cards shooting 45% or better from the field in six consecutive games for the first time since 2019.
They scored 67.4 points per contest on 44% shooting (32.9% from 3). Their average offensive efficiency rating: 98.7.
Turnovers are down. Trips to the free-throw line are up. But grabbing 21 offensive rebounds during Tuesday's loss at Clemson couldn't disguise the fact that U of L has been getting bullied on the glass (90-77), leading to 34 fewer second-chance points (74) than it had at the 10-game mark of ACC play a year ago (108).
Then, there's the assist column, which you'll see below has improved only slightly. Payne has asked his team from Day 1 to play selflessly and to move the ball with purpose, but it's still a work in progress.
"There are times when not just me, but the whole staff is saying, 'Move it. Move it. Move it.' And a guy still dribbles and he's trying to make a hero's play," Payne said Jan. 23 after a loss to then-No. 12 Duke.
"There are no heroes in this. This has got to be togetherness."
One week after that comment, Louisville didn't record an assist until the 11:57 mark of the second half Tuesday. It currently ranks 330th in Division I with 10.7 per game after finishing 2022-23 dead last in that regard (9.3).
Offensive rebounds
2022-23: 10 per game
2023-24: 7.7 per game
Opponents' defensive rebounds
2022-23: 25.2 per game
2023-24: 25.2 per game
Second-chance points
2022-23: 10.8 per game
2023-24: 7.4 per game
Fouls drawn
2022-23: 17 per game
2023-24: 17.6 per game
Free throws made
2022-23: 10.3 per game
2023-24: 13.8 per game
Free-throw attempts
2022-23: 15.8 per game
2023-24: 18.1 per game
Assists
2022-23: 9.6 per game
2023-24: 10.4 per game
Turnovers
2022-23: 16.6 per game
2023-24: 12.6 per game
Points in the paint
2022-23: 29 per game
2023-24: 27 per game
Points off turnovers
2022-23: 10.8 per game
2023-24: 11.7 per game
Fast-break points
2022-23: 5.4 per game
2023-24: 5.1 per game
Bench points
2022-23: 14.5 per game
2023-24: 19.4 per game
A disaster defensively
This is where things fall apart.
Louisville surrendered 77 points per game on 47.4% shooting (36.7% from 3) during the first 10 ACC matchups of 2022-23. Its average defensive efficiency: 112.7 points allowed per 100 possessions.
Payne needed to make major strides on this end if Year 2 of his rebuild was going to be successful. That certainly hasn't been the case.
The Cards have started conference play giving up 79.3 points per game on 47.2% shooting (38.5% from 3). Their average defensive efficiency, 116.9, ranks dead last in the league on KenPom.
For context, they finished 2022-23 ranked 312 of 363 DI teams by allowing 111.3 points per 100 possessions.
Sure, this year's ACC schedule was tougher out of the gate. And losing guys such as Dennis Evans, a 7-foot-1 freshman center, and JJ Traynor, the lone senior on the roster, hurts. But there's really no excuse at this point for the meltdowns, which Payne usually attributes to his players lacking qualities that are non-negotiables at high-major programs.
Chief among them: effort, communication, discipline and understanding assignments.
"We all have to help each other a lot more," Huntley-Hatfield said Saturday after a loss to Virginia. "We all feel like we're pretty good 1-on-1 defenders, but, sometimes, someone may get beat. It's about being there for your brother and being desperate. We all have to be desperate."
Defensive rebounds
2022-23: 22.7 per game
2023-24: 23.7 per game
Opponents' offensive rebounds
2022-23: 9 per game
2023-24: 9 per game
Second-chance points allowed
2022-23: 7.8 per game
2023-24: 9.4 per game
Paint points allowed
2022-23: 31.2 per game
2023-24: 29 per game
Fouls
2022-23: 16.5 per game
2023-24: 16.3 per game
Assists allowed
2022-23: 15 per game
2023-24: 16.9 per game
Turnovers forced
2022-23: 11 per game
2023-24: 10.3 per game
Opponents' points off turnovers
2022-23: 19.3 per game
2023-24: 16.3 per game
Fast-break points allowed
2022-23: 9.7 per game
2023-24: 6.7 per game
Blocks
2022-23: 2.4 per game
2023-24: 2 per game
Steals
2022-23: 4.6 per game
2023-24: 4.9 per game
Bench points allowed
2022-23: 15.7 per game
2023-24: 20.1 per game
Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on X at @brooksHolton.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville basketball: Comparing Kenny Payne's teams in 10 ACC games
