Fantasy Football Week 16 Bust Candidates: Bengals stars could disappoint with title trips at stake

Editor’s note: The players listed below are NFL players who were drafted in virtually every Yahoo Fantasy league. That said, this column is not an endorsement to bench them in Week 16. You’re in control of your roster; every league size and shape is different. What we are trying to explain is that expectations should be lowered this week compared to usual for some of the NFL’s biggest names. Aside from examining this week’s matchups, this can also serve as a reminder not to overreact if one of your draft picks disappoints in Week 16.

Joe Mixon @ New England Patriots

Mixon continues to see work as a receiver but is losing more carries to Samaje Perine, who’s arguably played better this season (for what it’s worth, Mixon ranks No. 40 in yards created per touch while Perine is 13th). Mixon has scored all six of his rushing touchdowns this season at home, where his average yards from scrimmage (125.4) has also nearly doubled (64.6) compared to on the road. New England has allowed the fewest yards per play at home, the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs and an NFL-low six rushing scores this year. Mixon has been a top-five RB just one week all season, and it’s safe to expect a finish outside the top-15 in a tough matchup in New England.

Brian Robinson @ San Francisco 49ers

Robinson has a bright future, but he played just 36% of Washington’s snaps last week and could once again find himself in a negative game script as touchdown underdogs in San Francisco. The rookie has gotten 3.7 YPC on the road this season and faces a 49ers defense allowing an NFL-low 3.4 YPC and the fewest fantasy points to running backs. In fact, no RB has run for 60 yards against them this season, which is especially bad news for a back like Robinson who has just 10 targets on the year. San Francisco has ceded only one touchdown to a running back since Week 7, and opponents have by far the lowest run rate (29%!) when playing in Levi’s Stadium this season.

Robinson — and Terry McLaurin — should be considered bench candidates this week against the league’s best defense.

Alvin Kamara @ Cleveland Browns

Kamara has averaged 121.9 yards from scrimmage at home this season but just 59.4 on the road (with zero touchdowns and a 3.5 YPC mark). After entering 2022 with just two lost fumbles during his career, Kamara has lost more (four) this season than he’s scored touchdowns (three). It’s been a down year for Kamara further worsened by a lesser role, as he hasn’t seen a carry inside the five-yard line since Week 8 (just two all season) and somehow ran fewer routes than David Johnson last week. Kamara gets a Browns defense allowing the most EPA/rush but in a matchup with extreme weather conditions and a historically low 32.5-point total. Taysom Hill has become a bigger part of New Orleans’ rushing offense recently, when Kamara’s targets have also declined. It’s not an ideal setup during the fantasy playoffs.

FADE IN DFS

Joe Burrow ($35) @ New England Patriots

Burrow would be an easy top-five pick if starting an NFL franchise, but his YPA has dropped from 8.6 at home to 7.0 on the road during his career, and he gets a tough matchup in New England this week. The Patriots defense has allowed the fewest yards per play (4.5) at home this season and ranks top-three in pressure rate and sacks recorded (48). New England has given up a couple of big fantasy performances from rushing quarterbacks this year, but the Pats have shut down pocket passers. Game script could also pose a problem, as Burrow may not need to throw much in a matchup featuring a struggling Mac Jones against a surging Bengals defense. Pay $2 more for Patrick Mahomes' salary instead.

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