You might be surprised where Wisconsin football is on ESPN’s early 2024 SP+ rankings
ben kenney
·10 min read
Today marks an important day on the college football calendar, or at least it should. It is the annual release of Bill Connelly’s pre-spring SP+ rankings — arguably the best forward-looking rating system in college football.
His ratings merge returning production from the previous year, recent recruiting and transfer portal performance, and each program’s recent history to create the most accurate forecast for the upcoming year. More than the AP Poll just basing much of the voting off last year’s results, Connelly’s numbers actually consider the factors that decide success.
The Badgers need a rebound in 2024 after a 7-6 2023 campaign. A glass-half-full approach would look at turnover and call it a good thing given last year’s results, while the glass-half-empty view would point out that turnover is often a bad thing in college football.
Either way, Wisconsin isn’t entering 2024 ranked inside the nation’s top 10, instead more of a borderline top-25 team.
That’s where Connelly’s pre-spring SP+ ranking has the Badgers, obviously with room to rise or fall depending on performance on the field.
Remember, Connelly always adds this disclaimer when it comes to the rankings:
A reminder on SP+: It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Here is his full pre-spring SP+ top 25:
Georgia Bulldogs
Dec 30, 2023; Miami Gardens, FL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart and running back Kendall Milton (2) react after the 2023 Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 34.5
Offensive Rating: 46.9 (No. 2)
Defensive Rating: 12.5 (No. 5)
Returning Production: No. 47 (65%)
Ohio State Buckeyes
MADISON, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 28: Ryan Day head coach of the Ohio State Buckeyes reacts to a penalty during the second quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium on October 28, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
SP+ Rating: 30.1
Offensive Rating: 35.9 (No. 20)
Defensive Rating: 5.8 (No. 1)
Returning Production: No. 70 (61%)
Oregon Ducks
Nov 18, 2023; Tempe, Arizona, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning (center) leads quarterback Bo Nix (10) and Ty Thompson (13) onto the field for the game against the Arizona State Sun Devils at Mountain America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 29.3
Offensive Rating: 47.2 (No. 1)
Defensive Rating: 17.9 (No. 15)
Returning Production: No. 28 (69%)
Texas Longhorns
Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian greets wide receiver Xavier Worthy (1) while warming up for the Sugar Bowl College Football Playoff semifinals game against the Washington Huskies at the Caesars Superdome on Monday, Jan. 1, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Credit: Aaron E. Martinez/American-Statesman-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating: 28.7
Offensive Rating: 44.6 (No. 5)
Defensive Rating: 15.9 (No. 10)
Returning Production: No. 25 (70%)
Michigan Wolverines
Nov 11, 2023; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Michigan Wolverines offensive line coach Sherrone Moore reacts while being interviewed with running back Blake Corum (2) following a game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Michigan won 24-15. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 27.0
Offensive Rating: 32.9 (No. 32)
Defensive Rating: 5.9 (No. 2)
Returning Production: No. 128 (36%)
Alabama Crimson Tide
Jan 13, 2024; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; The University of Alabama introduced new head football coach Kalen DeBoer with a press conference at Bryant-Denny Stadium. DeBoer speaks during the press conference. Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-Tuscaloosa News-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating: 26.6
Offensive Rating: 42.3 (No. 7)
Defensive Rating: 15.7 (No. 8)
Returning Production: No. 115 (44%)
Penn State Nittany Lions
Apr 17, 2021; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin looks on during the Penn State spring practice at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Alberti-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 25.6
Offensive Rating: 36.1 (No. 18)
Defensive Rating: 10.6 (No. 4)
Returning Production: No. 23 (70%)
Ole Miss Rebels
Nov 6, 2021; Oxford, Mississippi, USA;Mississippi Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin talks with a referee after a call during the second half against the Liberty Flames at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 25.2
Offensive Rating: 43.1 (No. 6)
Defensive Rating: 18.0 (No. 16)
Returning Production: No. 68 (61%)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame head football coach Marcus Freeman celebrates at the 90th annual Sun Bowl game against Oregon State on Friday, Dec. 29, 2023, at El Paso, Texas. Credit: GABY VELASQUEZ/ EL PASO TIMES-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating: 24.1
Offensive Rating: 39.8 (No. 10)
Defensive Rating: 15.7 (No. 9)
Returning Production: No. 74 (60%)
LSU Tigers
Jan 1, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Brian Kelly and quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (13) talk on the podium after the game against the Wisconsin Badgers at the Reliaquest Bowl at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 23.5
Offensive Rating: 46.2 (No. 3)
Defensive Rating: 22.7 (No. 34)
Returning Production: No. 60 (63%)
Missouri Tigers
Nov 24, 2023; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Missouri Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz during the fourth quarter against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Missouri won 48-14. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 21.8
Offensive Rating: 41.0 (No. 8)
Defensive Rating: 19.2 (No. 24)
Returning Production: No. 31 (68%)
Florida State Seminoles
Sep 23, 2023; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell on the sideline in the first half against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 20.0
Offensive Rating: 36.0 (No. 19)
Defensive Rating: 16.0 (No. 11)
Returning Production: No. 83 (58%)
Texas A&M Aggies
Sep 4, 2021; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Jimbo Fisher and defensive coordinator Mike Elko prior to the game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 19.0
Offensive Rating: 38.1 (No. 12)
Defensive Rating: 19.1 (No. 23)
Returning Production: No. 18 (72%)
Oklahoma Sooners
Dec 28, 2023; San Antonio, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners head coach Brent Venables looks on in the second half against the Arizona Wildcats at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 18.9
Offensive Rating: 37.4 (No. 14)
Defensive Rating: 18.5 (No. 19)
Returning Production: No. 67 (62%)
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel during preseason football practice held on UT’s campus on Monday, August 7, 2023. Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating: 18.4
Offensive Rating: 35.8 (No. 22)
Defensive Rating: 17.3 (No. 13)
Returning Production: No. 94 (52%)
Clemson Tigers
Sep 30, 2023; Syracuse, New York, USA; Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney reacts in the fourth quarter against Syracuse at JMA Wireless Dome. Mandatory Credit: Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 18.0
Offensive Rating: 36.6 (No. 15)
Defensive Rating: 18.6 (No. 20)
Returning Production: No. 54 (64%)
Utah Utes
Jan 1, 2022; Pasadena, CA, USA; Utah Utes head coach Kyle Wittingham looks on in the fourth quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes during the 2022 Rose Bowl college football game at the Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 16.4
Offensive Rating: 32.8 (No. 33)
Defensive Rating: 16.4 (No. 12)
Returning Production: No. 16 (72%)
Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State Wildcats quarterback Will Howard (18) looks to pass the ball against Texas Longhorns in the 4th quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, November. 4, 2023, in Austin, Texas. Credit: Ricardo B. Brazziell/American-Statesman-USA TODAY NETWORK
SP+ Rating: 14.4
Offensive Rating: 33.9 (No. 28)
Defensive Rating: 19.5 (No. 25)
Returning Production: No. 82 (58%)
Arizona Wildcats
Dec 28, 2023; San Antonio, TX, USA; Arizona Wildcats running back DJ Williams (8) celebrates a touchdown with tight end Tanner McLachlan (84) in the second half against the Oklahoma Sooners at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 14.4
Offensive Rating: 39.4 (No. 11)
Defensive Rating: 25.0 (No. 45)
Returning Production: No. 43 (66%)
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Sep 16, 2023; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy takes the field before an NCAA football game between Oklahoma State and South Alabama at Boone Pickens Stadium. South Alabama won 33-7. Mandatory Credit: Bryan Terry-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 13.1
Offensive Rating: 37.8 (No. 13)
Defensive Rating: 24.7 (No. 41)
Returning Production: No. 4 (77%)
Miami Hurricanes
Nov 24, 2023; Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts, USA; Miami Hurricanes quarterback Tyler Van Dyke (9) throws against the Boston College Eagles during the first half at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 12.3
Offensive Rating: 36.2 (No. 17)
Defensive Rating: 23.9 (No. 38)
Returning Production: No. 45 (66%)
Iowa State Cyclones
Dec 29, 2023; Memphis, TN, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell (right) reacts with Iowa State Cyclones offensive linemen James Neal (75) during the second half against the Memphis Tigers at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 11.7
Offensive Rating: 30.1 (No. 46)
Defensive Rating: 18.3 (No. 18)
Returning Production: No. 2 (85%)
USC Trojans
Mar 1, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC football head coach Lincoln Riley attends the USC Trojans and the Arizona Wildcats men’s basketball game at Galen Center. The Wildcats won 91-71. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 11.5
Offensive Rating: 44.7 (No. 4)
Defensive Rating: 33.2 (No. 98)
Returning Production: No. 99 (50%)
Louisville Cardinals
Nov 25, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Isaac Guerendo (23) runs the ball against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Kentucky defeated Louisville 38-31. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
SP+ Rating: 11.4
Offensive Rating: 30.5 (No. 44)
Defensive Rating: 19.1 (No. 21)
Returning Production: No. 44 (66%)
Wisconsin Badgers
MADISON, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 18: Luke Fickell head coach of the Wisconsin Badgers claps after a touchdown during the second quarter against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Camp Randall Stadium on November 18, 2023 in Madison, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
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