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The Bills are struggling to protect Josh Allen. Is it a fatal flaw?

Mark Schofield
·11 min read
5

In what is turning out to be a rather unconventional NFL season, one of the more puzzling storylines centers upon Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offense. After an MVP-type of season in 2020, many wondered if Allen would face regression in the 2021 campaign.

While regression might not be what is taking place in Buffalo, as his productivity in many ways mirrors his numbers from a season ago, the overall results are a bit more disappointing. The Bills entered Week 11 just ahead of the New England Patriots in the AFC East standings, and thanks to a blowout loss to the Indianapolis Colts at home, they now find themselves looking up at the Patriots in the win column.

The recipe for the Colts on Sunday? A familiar pattern than has been giving the Bills fits since the opening weekend of the season.

Pressure on the quarterback.

Back in Week 1, the Pittsburgh Steelers frustrated Allen, sacking him three times and holding him to 30 completions on 51 attempts for 270 yards and a touchdown. Beyond those numbers, according to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Allen was pressured on 23 dropbacks that week, the most out of any game from Week 1. On those 23 attempts, Allen completed 8 of 19 passes for 109 yards and a touchdown. A completion percentage of 42.1%, and 5.7 Yards Per Attempt.

When he was kept clean, Allen completed 68.8% of his passes against the Steelers.

Following the loss, head coach Sean McDermott talked about his offensive line. “We didn’t win enough of our 1-on-1 matchups [on the offensive line],” said McDermott. “We won some, but not enough. We also have to do a better job helping them when we go against a talented front like that with our plan.”

A prime example of players not winning the one-on-one matchups? This sack of Allen from the second quarter. Facing a 3rd and 13, the Bills empty the backfield and dial up a vertical passing concept. Pittsburgh rushes just four, but both T.J. Watt on the edge and Cameron Heyward on the interior win their matchups, forcing Allen off the spot early in the down before Watt finally gets home for the sack:

A similar scenario played out on this sack of Allen from the third quarter, with Watt again winning off the edge, but Allen stepping into the waiting arms of Heyward as the quarterback looks to survive:

Fast forward to Week 6, and a loss on the road to the Tennessee Titans. While the Bills put up 31 points in that game, and Allen completed 35 of 47 passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns (along with an interception) he was again sacked three times and pressured on 20 dropbacks. Again, those 20 dropbacks tied him with Patrick Mahomes and Teddy Bridgewater for the most pressures faced in Week 6. On those pressures, Allen completed 69.2% of his passes for 97 yards and a touchdown, but his interception also came when he was under duress.

Take a look at the interception, and see if there are any common themes to the previous two plays:

On the right side, tackle Spencer Brown is matched up against defensive end Denico Autry. The pass rusher is having a tremendous season, as he entered play on Week 11 with five sacks to his credit. On this interception, he beats Brown around the edge with a swim move before quickly flattening his path to the quarterback and hitting Allen just as he looks to throw. The pass flutters into the air, settling in the arms of safety Kevin Byard for the interception.

Looking at the three sacks, another theme emerges similar to the issue with one-on-ones illustrated in the Pittsburgh game: Issues when the defense brings just four up front. To be fair, both the Steelers and the Titans have the ability to pressure the passer with just four, and doing so is often looked at as the Rosetta Stone of playing defense in the NFL. If you can pressure with four, odds are you can be successful. But as we see on this sack of Allen, the Bills struggle to pick up an interior stunt, and Harold Landry springs free for one of his ten sacks on the season:

One of the most shocking results of the season came back in Week 9, when the Bills lost by three to the Jacksonville Jaguars on the road, managing just a pair of field goals. On that afternoon, Allen was pressured on 21 dropbacks, second-most in the league that week, and completed just seven of 15 passes when pressured for 90 yards and an interception.

Again, issues against just four rushers, and inability to win in one-on-one situations, doomed Allen and the Bills’ passing game down in Jacksonville. On this sack of Allen from the second quarter, it begins with Josh Allen the pass rusher, winning off the left side which forces the quarterback to climb. Waiting for him when he does? Interior defender Taven Bryan, who has won his own matchup on the inside:

The Jaguars got to Allen for a second time just before the halftime break, with Allen the pass rusher meeting fellow edge defender Dawuane Smoot at the quarterback:

On this sack, Allen hits his drop depth in the pocket and, feeling Smoot off the right side, tries to climb the pocket. But Smoot does a very good job at mirroring the quarterback and scraping off his blocker, which forces Allen to try and retreat in the pocket. That’s when Allen, coming from the other side, hits the QB and drives him to the turf.

Again, defenders winning one-on-ones when the defense brings just four after the quarterback. Not an earth-shattering defensive scheme, but a successful recipe when you can create that kind of pressure with four up front.

The interception, which again came with Allen facing pressure in the pocket, followed part of this two-step script. While Jacksonville blitzed on the play, sending five after the quarterback, the Jaguars were able to win a pair of one-on-one matchups on the right side, and when Allen flushed to his right in response to the blitz, he ran right into danger and made a mistake:

Linebacker Myles Jack, along with cornerback Nevin Lawson, blitz from the second level. Jack, along with Smoot, wins his matchup on the right side. Allen, seeing an unblocked Lawson with a free run at him, flushes to his right, but that brings him right into the arms of Jack. With the Bills facing a third down the quarterback attempts a risky throw while in the grasp of the linebacker, and the pass finds, of all people, the Josh Allen on Jacksonville for an interception.

As he did after the loss to the Steelers, McDermott discussed the offensive line in the wake of the loss in Jacksonville:

It’s hard to do anything without line-play … everything goes through the line on both sides of the ball, particularly on offense. It’s more than just one position, more than just one player. We need to do a better job overall offensively of putting our players in (the right) position and the players have to execute. Collectively, as an offense, we have to do a better job fundamentally, better job at the point of attack, better job execution-wise. We’ve got a long list of things to improve on and improve on fast.

That brings us to today.

You could make the case that Sunday’s tilt against the Colts was a must-win for both teams. With the Tennessee Titans holding a three-game lead in the AFC South entering play Sunday, the Colts badly needed a victory to keep pace.

As for Buffalo? They woke up Sunday with the Patriots nipping at their heels. Now? The Bills find themselves looking up at New England in the standings, thanks to Buffalo’s loss to the Colts.

Once again, pressure was a huge problem for the Bills on Sunday. ESPN’s Seth Walder pointed out that the Colts pressured Allen heavily, particularly in the first half, as Indianapolis built a 24-7 lead at halftime:

As the Colts built their lead, that freed them up to apply even more pressure in the second half. Allen and the Bills faced a 3rd and 8 midway through the third quarter, with Indianapolis holding a 31-7 lead. The Colts decided to blitz Allen, and once again he made a risky throw under pressure and into coverage, that was intercepted:

Allen finished the day completing 21 of 35 passes for 209 yards, a pair of touchdowns, and a pair of interceptions. He was also sacked once on the afternoon, and would finish the day watching Mitchell Trubisky guide the offense in the blowout loss.

Of course, while playing in the face of pressure is part of the job, here is why this might — or might not — matter in the long run. Last year, Allen was pressured the most out of any quarterback in the league, facing duress in the pocket on 280 dropbacks. What did he do on those pressures? Complete 49.8% of his passes for 1,478 yards and 14 touchdowns, against just six interceptions, according to charting data from PFF. His Adjusted Completion Percentage of 64.9% when pressured placed him 12th in the NFL last season, just behind Patrick Mahomes and just ahead of Aaron Rodgers. So, somewhat impressive.

Even more impressive? Allen’s ability to avoid sacks in those moments. While he was pressured on a whopping 280 dropbacks, he was sacked on just 33 of them, or a sack percentage of just 11.8%, which was third-lowest among qualified passers.

Interestingly enough, the numbers this year tell a similar story. Allen’s Adjusted Completion Percentage of 63.2%, not a huge departure from last year when pressured, places him 17th in the league. He has also thrown for nine touchdowns, against just two interceptions, when pressured. And in terms of sack percentage, while he has been pressured a total of 107 times, he has been sacked on just 14 of those plays for a sack percentage of just 10.4%, second-lowest among qualified passers.

And that right there might be the solace that Bills fans are seeking this evening. Because Allen’s numbers when pressured in many ways mirror the numbers he posted under pressure last season, during a year when he was an MVP candidate and the Bills made a run to the AFC Championship game. So even with the struggles to win one-on-ones up front, and the issues against teams that can get pressure with four, there is still a path for success that lies in front of Allen and this offense.

The problem? What also lies in front of them. As mentioned earlier, the Patriots now sit atop the AFC East, and those two teams have a pair of games coming up over the next few weeks. New England is one of those teams, thanks to the play of Matthew Judon, who can get pressure with four up front. That has allowed Bill Belichick and company to dial up more zone coverage schemes behind that defensive front in recent weeks, concepts that at times gave Allen some struggles back in 2020.

Beyond those two games with New England, the Bills also face some teams that can get after the quarterback, including Carolina with Phil Snow’s pressure and mug looks and Tampa Bay with the talent they have up front.

So while the mere fact that the Bills are giving up pressures on Allen might not be a fatal flaw, simply avoiding a fatal flaw might not be enough in 2021. Last year the Buffalo Bills had a bigger margin for error in the East, with the Miami Dolphins and the Patriots struggling to find an offensive identity and the New York Jets making a run at the top of the draft board.

This year is different, as New England is much improved on both sides of the football. Meaning that while seeing their QB forced to play in pressure is not a fatal issue, it might be enough of a problem to mean the difference on a drive, a play, or in a game.

Last year, they had more breathing room. This year is different, and the slight difference might end up being huge for Buffalo in the long run.