Best and worst case scenarios for Memphis Grizzlies in 2024 NBA Draft Lottery
Anticipation is building as the Memphis Grizzlies will soon rely on pingpong balls with a possible 1,001 combinations to provide direction into their future offseason plans.
The NBA Draft Lottery will be held Sunday (2 p.m. CT, ABC). It’s an opportunity for Memphis to secure a high pick that yields an instant impact player to an ultra-talented roster, or to stack another asset that could be beneficial to use in an offseason trade.
Memphis is currently seventh from the bottom of the standings, but the projections work a little different. The Grizzlies have a 34.1% chance of securing the eight overall pick, which is the highest probability for Memphis in any spot. The Grizzlies also have a 31.9% chance to jump into the top four. That is also higher than their 19.7% chance of staying out at No. 7.
If you’re more of a believer in history than probability, then the odds shift even more in the Grizzlies’ favor to move up. In four of the past five seasons, the team that started at the seventh spot before the draft lottery has secured a top-four pick.
No matter where the Grizzlies land, it’s ideal to prepare for the best and worst case scenarios.
Best case for Grizzlies at NBA Draft Lottery
The best case scenario is simply the Grizzlies jumping into the top four. It’s no secret how much Memphis wants a big man. The two centers who are consensus lottery picks on draft boards are both likely to go in the top five. If Memphis secures a top-four pick, centers Donovan Clingan and Alexandre Sarr should be in play.
Memphis has a 8.5% chance at the No. 4 pick and a 7.5% to get the top overall pick. In other words, if the Grizzlies jump into the top four, anything can happen.
Worst case for Grizzlies at draft lottery
Memphis has a 34.1% chance at landing at eight, so odds are that’s where the Grizzlies will fall. If that’s the case, Memphis will likely be in a no man’s land type scenario. The two best bigs will likely be long gone off the board. If Clingan or Sarr are still on the board, then there are likely some red flags scaring other teams away.
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Memphis has odds between the 7th and 11th picks, but the probability drops to 1.3% at 10th overall. If Memphis isn’t in the top four, it will still need to address the center spot, but the draft will longer be the easiest option.
Sure, Memphis could trade back and find another mid-first round center that plays well like Dereck Lively is currently doing for the Dallas Mavericks, but odds are that Memphis will have to choose a wing or guard player to add to an already stacked area of the roster or potentially trade the pick.
Damichael Cole is the Memphis Grizzlies beat writer for The Commercial Appeal. Contact Damichael at damichael.cole@commercialappeal.com. Follow Damichael on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DamichaelC.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Best and worst cases for Memphis Grizzlies in 2024 NBA Draft Lottery
