Why recent history suggests the Grizzlies will move up from No. 7 in NBA Draft Lottery
The Memphis Grizzlies offseason is in a holding pattern. It will be that way for the next two weeks until the NBA Draft Lottery.
The lottery, held on May 12, will provide clarity for the Grizzlies.
What kind of clarity? Well, recent draft lottery history for teams in the Grizzlies' position suggests it will come in the form of good news.
Memphis is currently projected to pick seventh, but that could change.
This is the first time the Grizzlies will have a lottery pick since 2019 when they landed Ja Morant with the No. 2 section. Just like this season, Memphis entered that lottery not projected to pick near the top.
Could the Grizzlies have similar fortune? Here’s how the lottery has played out for recent teams in Memphis' position.
What to know about the NBA Draft Lottery format
The NBA Board of Governors agreed to change its lottery model in 2017, starting with the 2019 draft. Each of the three teams with the worst records have similar odds to acquiring the top pick at 14%. Before that season, the NBA’s worst team had a 25% chance at acquiring the top pick, and the second pick would be at 19.9%.
In the final four seasons of the old system, the team with the best odds (25%) landed the top pick. So if you tanked hard enough, you were essentially a shoo-in for the No. 1 pick. That's not the case anymore. The team with the NBA’s worst record has not picked first in any of the five years of the new system.
The new method has evened out the playing field for teams like the Grizzlies, who would have a next to nothing chance at acquiring a top pick through the old formula.
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Lottery history in the Grizzlies' favor
Maybe seven is a lucky number. At least in the case of the draft lottery. Memphis has 7.5% odds of acquiring the top overall pick and a 31.9% chance of moving into the top four. In the five seasons of the current format, the team positioned seventh has moved into the top four in all but one year.
The Indiana Pacers stayed at No. 7 last season, but the first four years of the new format all saw positive movement. From 2020-22, the Bulls, Raptors and Kings all jumped from seventh to fourth.
The most noticeable movement came in 2019, when the Pelicans grabbed the No. 1 pick after having the seventh-best odds. That was the same season Memphis jumped from eighth to second and selected Morant.
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What lottery odds mean for the Grizzlies?
The team slotted at seventh has never moved down in the current lottery format, despite the highest probability landing spot being at No. 8 (34.1%).
Memphis has a clear need in the frontcourt with adding a big man. Many mock drafts have the two most notable bigs, Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan, projected to go in the top five.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Why history suggests the Grizzlies will move up in NBA Draft Lottery
