The NFL's biggest first-round flops
The Detroit Lions, fresh off their miserable 0-16 season of 2008, hold the top pick in the April 25 NFL draft. Might they use it on one of the top-rated quarterbacks coming out this year, Georgia's Matthew Stafford or USC's Mark Sanchez? Not if they truly want to rebuild the team.
The "win now" demands of the NFL can be fierce. And for a downtrodden franchise, there's nothing like snagging a prized young quarterback to be the new, fresh face of a more promising future. The problem: It's expensive, and it rarely works.
Take Vince Young. Coming out of the University of Texas three years ago, Young wasn't just supposed to be a great pro quarterback. He was supposed to be the new breed – the full package of arm strength, savvy and athleticism that would transform the modern pro quarterback from a rifle-armed gunslinger into more of a multi-dimensional threat.
Drafted with the third overall pick by the Tennessee Titans in 2006 and handed a five-year, $25.7 million contract, Young was thrown into a starting role for the mediocre team immediately. He flopped, throwing 30 interceptions against just 21 touchdown passes. His team compiled a so-so 18-14 record. His career quarterback ranking of 68.8 falls below the 77.3 average of all quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 since 1999. By 2008, he had lost the starting QB job to 36-year-old journeyman Kerry Collins.
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"He looked invincible, which hyped him to the fullest," says sports marketing expert Bob Dorfman of Baker Street Partners in San Francisco. But of course, Young isn't invincible. And his hefty salary combined with a less than stellar early career has him on our list of biggest flops for the money among NFL quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the past decade. Others include a pair of 1999 picks, Oregon's Akili Smith (No. 3 overall to the Bengals) and UCLA's Cade McNown (No. 12, to the Bears). Both seemed to have the physical tools. But like Young, who went to a Titans team coming off a 4-12 record, they were plucked by weak teams (the Bengals were 3-13 the previous year, the Bears 4-12) looking for immediate saviors
Also on the list: Fresno State's David Carr, who went first overall to the expansion Houston Texans in 2002, and Utah's Alex Smith, taken No. 1 overall in 2005 by the 2-14 San Francisco 49ers. It isn't all their fault.
"The biggest factor is the situation they go into," says Scott Wright, a draft expert who runs the Web site nflfdraftcountdown.com. Smith in particular, he says, got thrown onto a San Francisco team with a weak supporting cast, then had to put up with three offensive coordinators in four seasons. Smith cost the club an average of $4.8 million against its salary cap over four years, with an 11-19 record (as a starter) to show for it.
"The 49ers broke every rule in the book," Wright says of the way the club handled their young quarterback.
To determine the least valuable first-round quarterbacks, we measured each for wins and losses as a starter, along with his quarterback rating (a formula based on completion percentage, touchdown passes, interceptions and yards), with bonus points doled out for playoff appearances and championships (the only Super Bowl winning quarterbacks among first round draftees over the past decade: the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger and the Giants' Eli Manning). The performance stats were measured against each player's contract, based on the amount of salary cap space he took on his club.
With so many of the highest picks flopping for mediocre teams, there's little surprise the majority of the best values at the position were found lower in the first round, where better clubs were able to find young quarterbacks that cost less, easing them in gradually. The best values for the buck over the past 10 years include Roethlisberger (the No. 11 pick in 2004), Joe Flacco (No. 18 last year, to the Ravens) and Drew Brees (No. 32 to the Chargers in 2001). The only top five value to go as high as No. 2 in the draft: Donovan McNabb, who has gone 81-45 with the Eagles since 1999.
The top five:
1. Akili Smith: Slideshow
2. Cade McNown: Slideshow
3. J.P. Losman: Slideshow
4. David Carr: Slideshow
5. Joey Harrington: Slideshow
• See more flops
