Falcons likely to get burned in thrillers

TAMPA, Fla. – One of the great fallacies of the NFL is to assume that great teams regularly win a lot of close games, a theory enhanced by the glorification of dramatic games and great comebacks.

It's as if every game Joe Montana played came down to a clutch slant pass to John Taylor, rather than most of the blowouts he engineered with San Francisco.

Call it the NFL Films Effect.

Truth is, most teams that live on the edge usually find disaster. Taking that into consideration, you have to wonder if and when things will catch up with the Atlanta Falcons. They have turned the nail-biter into such an art form, you have to wonder if the paint they're using is actually blood from their fingertips.

Atlanta's latest episode from its year of playing dangerously was a 28-24 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium. The Falcons not only came back from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit, but did it with the help of a 102-yard kickoff return for a score, a converted third-and-20 and a diving interception of a quick out as the capper. Getting that trifecta in a 10-minute span is football's version of hitting the lottery.

It makes for a great storyline. The downside is that huge adrenaline rushes are usually met with big crashes. Fortunately for Atlanta, coach Mike Smith(notes) understands that.

"It's something that has to be managed," Smith said. "You have to continue to focus on the next play, forgetting whatever happened last, whether it's good or bad and just play the next play."

Said guard Harvey Dahl(notes): "We have a confidence that somewhere along the line, somebody is going to make a play in those situations. We just know it."

The truth is that great teams are certainly capable of winning close games. But, generally, they don't do it a lot. Already this season, Atlanta has won six games by fewer than seven points. Among the six are four at home and three that easily could have flipped on one play.

Against San Francisco, the Falcons needed a forced fumble after an interception by the 49ers. In the first game against the Buccaneers, there was a goal-line stand. Against Baltimore, there was the no-call against wide receiver Roddy White(notes) when he shoved a Ravens defensive back to the ground on his game-winning touchdown. Now, comes Sunday's comeback, adding to what is already an improbable season.

The six close victories this regular season tied the 2003 New England Patriots and 2006 Indianapolis Colts, who have the most of any Super Bowl champion since the 1986 New York Giants – and the Falcons still have four games remaining. That Patriots title team added two more narrow wins in the postseason.

Over the past 10 years, only one other eventual champion had as many as five close regular-season games (Pittsburgh in 2008). Of the past 10 champions, five had three or fewer such games in the regular season.

In other words, such close games are not a sign of dominance, they are a sign of just getting by.

"We definitely need to play more efficient," said White, whose 25-yard reception with 7:40 remaining kept the go-ahead drive alive. It's the second time this season that Ryan has hit White for a long conversion along the right sideline in the fourth quarter this season. The earlier one came against San Francisco, which was the same game that White hustled to force a fumble by Nate Clements(notes) after an interception.

Beyond all of that, the Falcons entered this game on an extraordinary run of solid execution and good fortune. They had gone four consecutive games without turning the ball over. Two interceptions of Ryan erased that run, which was tied for the longest since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

"We're a team that doesn't do a lot of things to beat ourselves and we overcame some things like that [Sunday]," Smith said, also referring to two personal foul calls that hurt the Falcons along the way.

White, who had one of those personal fouls, said the timing of the passing game was off much of the game. That was reflected in Ryan's season-low 62.8 quarterback rating as he completed only 18 of 36 passes for 205 yards, two touchdowns and the two picks.

"For me, I know I needed to be more focused," said White, who got into a shouting match with wide receiver coach Terry Robiskie after the personal foul. Eventually, Smith had to go over to White and calm him. White finished with seven reception for 74 yards, but that came on 16 targets.

"I just wasn't on my game from the start and it really hurt us," White said.

The Falcons have played and overcome these kinds of situations all season. It is both enthralling and emotionally draining over time.

It's still unclear if the Falcons have much left in the tank to survive these dramatic finishes.