Big Ten Tournament preview and predictions: Who will emerge to challenge Purdue?

The 2017 Big Ten tournament tips off Wednesday at the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C. Here is an in-depth look at the tournament including a complete bracket, TV information, analysis and predictions.

THE KEY QUESTIONS

1. Who is the favorite?

The favorite is the only team to achieve any level of consistency during the regular season: Purdue. The Big Ten regular season champs finished two games ahead of the field, and finished strong by fending off Northwestern on Sunday even after locking up an outright title earlier in the week.

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The Boilermakers have the conference’s best player, and are the only team in the Big Ten with an offense and defense that both rank in the top 20 nationally in adjusted efficiency. They’ve only lost once since January, and although they are by no means perfect, they’re a notch above a messy second tier at the moment.

2. Who else could win the tournament?

There are as many as six other realistic picks. Michigan is the 8-seed, but might be playing better basketball right now than anybody outside of Purdue. A win over Illinois would give the Wolverines a matchup with the Boilermakers — a team they beat just one week ago.

Wisconsin showed signs of snapping out of its funk in the second half of a 66-49 victory over Minnesota. The Golden Gophers had won eight in a row prior to the loss in Madison, though, making them a sneaky bet to give Purdue a run for its money. Maryland, Michigan State and Northwestern could easily find themselves playing on Sunday too.

3. Who got the best and worst draw?

The bottom half of the bracket looks to be weaker than the top. The average KenPom ranking of the four top-eight seeds in the upper half is 30. The average KenPom ranking of the four top-eight seeds in the lower half is 40.

Michigan in particular got an unfortunate draw. John Beilein’s team lost a four-way tiebreaker with Michigan State, Northwestern and Iowa, so it must go through Illinois, Purdue and either Michigan State or Minnesota just to get to the final.

Even Purdue, who will be favored in all of its games in D.C., would probably rather have Wisconsin’s path to the championship game than its own. Iowa (Wisconsin’s likely quarterfinal matchup) is the least threatening of the top eight seeds, and the Badgers will only have to beat one NCAA tournament team to make it to Sunday.

BUBBLE IMPLICATIONS

Michigan (20-11, 10-8, KenPom 25, RPI 49), Northwestern (21-10, 10-8, KenPom 35, RPI 48): Both the Wolverines and Wildcats are near locks. But Michigan especially could use a win over Illinois to avoid a nervous wait on Sunday evening.

Michigan State (18-13, 10-8, KenPom 50, RPI 47): After a two-loss week, the Spartans might be in a bit of trouble. At the very least, they can’t afford a second round loss to Nebraska or Penn State. With one win and then a loss to Minnesota, they’d remain on the right side of the bubble, but would be sweating through the selection show.

Illinois (18-13, 8-10, KenPom 68, RPI 57): After losing to Rutgers on Saturday, the Illini absolutely need to beat Michigan on Thursday at noon. At 18-14 with only eight Big Ten wins, they’d be a firm “out.” With a win over Michigan, they’re in contention, but still might need something — if not a win, at least a good showing — in the quarters against Purdue.

Iowa (18-13, 10-8, KenPom 65, RPI 74): The Hawkeyes have snuck through the backdoor into bubble contention, and are in a spot similar to Illinois’. They absolutely must beat Indiana on Thursday. They might need a second win over Wisconsin too.

Indiana (17-14, 7-11, KenPom 46, 81): Nope. Forget about it. The Hoosiers probably have to win the whole dang thing to secure a bid.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. Caleb Swanigan, F, Purdue: He’s not only the best player in the conference, he might be the best player in the country. He’s probably the best forward in the country. He’s an enthralling blend of power, skill and dexterity around the rim.

2. Ethan Happ, F, Wisconsin: Happ hasn’t been himself lately. His team has been struggling, which means the double teams have been coming harder and the kick-outs aren’t as effective. But he’s a fantastic and fascinating player, a guard in a big man’s body who leads Wisconsin in every major statistical category.

3. Bryant McIntosh, G, Northwestern: McIntosh struggled over the first half of the year, but has been at his best lately as Northwestern’s wings have struggled. He has averaged almost 19 points per game since the end of January, and broke Northwestern’s career assists record with a whole year to spare in Sunday’s loss to Purdue.

ONE BIG STORYLINE

It appears the Big Ten will get seven or eight teams in the tournament. But look up and down that list of seven or eight teams… is there anybody you’d pick to advance past the first weekend of the NCAA tournament? Maybe Purdue, but that’s about it.

Below the Boilermakers, the conference has been an untidy heap of parity — or, more accurately, mediocrity — for much of the past month. It has one week — one long weekend — to change that and save face. Can Wisconsin re-find its groove? Can Michigan continue its climb? Can Minnesota find consistent offense to match its defense? The Big Ten desperately needs to find a second candidate for an NCAA tournament run. The conference tournament is its final opportunity.

SCHEDULE

All times Eastern

Wednesday, March 8 | First round
No. 12 Nebraska vs. No. 13 Penn State — 4:30 p.m., ESPN2
No. 11 Ohio State vs. No. 14 Rutgers — 7 p.m., Big Ten Network

Thursday, March 9 | Second round
No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Illinois — Noon, BTN
No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 12 Nebraska/No. 13 Penn State — 2:30 p.m., BTN
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Indiana — 6:30 p.m., ESPN2
No. 6 Northwestern vs. No. 11 Ohio State/No. 14 Rutgers — 9 p.m., ESPN2

Friday, March 10 | Quarterfinals
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 8 Michigan/No. 9 Illinois — Noon, ESPN
No. 4 Minnesota vs. No. 5 Michigan State/No. 12 Nebraska/No. 13 Penn State — 2:30 p.m., ESPN
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 7 Iowa/No. 10 Indiana — 6:30 p.m., BTN
No. 3 Maryland vs. No. 6 Northwestern/No. 11 Ohio State/No. 14 Rutgers — 9 p.m., BTN

Saturday, March 11 | Semifinals
Winners of quarterfinals 1 and 2 — 1 p.m., CBS
Winners of quarterfinals 3 and 4 — 3:30 p.m., CBS

Sunday, March 12 | Final
Semifinal winners — 3 p.m., CBS

PREDICTIONS

First round
No. 13 Penn State over No. 12 Nebraska
No. 11 Ohio State over No. 14 Rutgers

Second round
No. 8 Michigan over No. 9 Illinois
No. 5 Michigan State over No. 13 Penn State
No. 7 Iowa over No. 10 Indiana
No. 6 Northwestern over No. 11 Ohio State

Quarterfinals
No. 1 Purdue over No. 8 Michigan
No. 5 Michigan State over No. 4 Minnesota
No. 2 Wisconsin over No. 7 Iowa
No. 6 Northwestern over No. 3 Maryland

Semifinals
No. 1 Purdue over No. 5 Michigan State
No. 2 Wisconsin over No. 6 Northwestern

Final
No. 1 Purdue over No. 2 Wisconsin

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