SEC Tournament preview and predictions: Will we get Kentucky-Florida, part III?

The 2017 SEC tournament tips off Wednesday at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Here is an in-depth look at the tournament including a complete bracket, TV information, analysis and predictions.

KEY QUESTIONS

1. Who is the favorite?

In his first seven seasons at Kentucky, John Calipari went 16-3 in the SEC tournament. It will take an upset to prevent him from being 19-3 by the end of the week.

Since its rough patch a month ago in which it lost three of four games, Kentucky has reeled off eight straight victories including a 10-point victory over Florida without standout point guard DeAaron Fox. The Wildcats (26-5) could land a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament without ever truly reaching their peak in the regular season.

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Yes, their recent habit of spotting opponents big early leads is alarming. Yes, they’re prone to sporadic lapses defensively. And yes, they can sometimes lack 3-point firepower if streak-shooting Malik Monk goes cold. But this is still a team that’s capable of beating anyone and clearly the class of the SEC.

2. Who else could win the tournament?

The obvious choice is second-seeded Florida, which was tied for first place until dropping road games at Kentucky and Vanderbilt down the stretch. The Gators (24-7) boast an elite defense and an improved offense, but the late-season loss of starting center John Egbunu deprives Florida of an athletic 6-foot-11 big man who impacted games by altering shots, attacking the glass and finishing at the rim.

It’s tough to envision anyone in the SEC beating Kentucky and Florida on back-to-back days, but Vanderbilt finished the season strong. Its only loss in its final six games was a six-point setback at Kentucky on a day when it led for the first 30-plus minutes.

3. Who got the best and worst draw?

Somehow third-seeded Arkansas and fourth-seeded South Carolina drew more favorable quarterfinal matchups than Kentucky and Florida did. The Razorbacks will likely meet Ole Miss, which has one top 50 KenPom win all season and lost by 18 in Fayetteville two weeks ago. The Gamecocks will likely face Alabama, which has dropped three of its past four and has struggled all season on offense.

By contrast, Kentucky and Florida have it tougher. The Wildcats will either see a dangerous Tennessee that beat them last month or a Georgia team in desperate need of marquee wins to make a case for an NCAA bid. The Gators will probably draw surging Vanderbilt, which swept them in the regular season.

BUBBLE IMPLICATIONS

Vanderbilt (17-14, 10-8, RPI 44, KenPom 40): For a 14-loss team in one of the weaker power conferences, Vanderbilt is in surprisingly decent shape. The Commodores boast a sweep of Florida and quality wins over Iowa State, South Carolina and Arkansas. A victory over Texas A&M in the opening round might be a necessity for Vanderbilt. A quarterfinal win over Florida, and the Commodores would be all but safe.

Georgia (18-13, 9-9 RPI 53, KenPom 56): The idea that a sixth SEC team could make the NCAA tournament seems far-fetched, but Georgia has at least a remote chance. Only a run to the SEC title game would likely save the Bulldogs though because their sole quality wins during the regular season came over bubble teams Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt. It would really help if the Bulldogs had star forward Yante Maten, but he may still be a week away from being healthy enough to play.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

1. Malik Monk, G, Kentucky: While DeAaron Fox might be Kentucky’s best all-around player, Monk is the SEC’s most streaky yet lethal scorer. He averages 21.2 points per game and is perfectly capable of following a scoreless half with a 30-point one.

2. Sindarius Thornwell, G, South Carolina: On a Gamecocks team that wins with defense, Thornwell is the one player capable of getting buckets in bunches. The 6-foot-5 senior averages 21.2 points and 7.3 rebounds.

3. J.J. Frazier, G, Georgia: With standout forward Yante Maten sidelined for the past few weeks, Frazier has kept Georgia afloat. The senior guard has averaged 29.6 points over his last five games.

ONE BIG STORYLINE

If the SEC is more than a two-team league this season, this is the rest of the conference’s chance to prove it. No SEC team besides Kentucky and Florida is projected to receive better than an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA tournament. South Carolina, Arkansas and even Vanderbilt could boost their seeding tremendously by toppling either the Wildcats or Gators or better yet both of them.

SCHEDULE

All times Eastern below, Central on bracket above

Wednesday, March 8 | First round
No. 12 Mississippi State vs. No. 13 LSU — 7 p.m., SEC Network
No. 11 Auburn vs. No. 14 Missouri — 9:30 p.m., SEC Network

Thursday, March 9 | Second round
No. 8 Georgia vs. No. 9 Tennessee — 1 p.m., SEC Network
No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 Mississippi State/No. 13 LSU — 3:30 p.m., SEC Network
No. 7 Vanderbilt vs. No. 10 Texas A&M — 7 p.m., SEC Network
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Auburn/No. 14 Missouri — 9:30 p.m., SEC Network

Friday, March 10 | Quarterfinals
No. 1 Kentucky vs. No. 8 Georgia/No. 9 Tennessee — 1 p.m., SEC Network
No. 4 South Carolina vs. No. 5 Alabama/No. 12 Mississippi State/No. 13 LSU — 3:30 p.m., SEC Network
No. 2 Florida vs. No. 7 Vanderbilt/No. 10 Texas A&M — 7 p.m., SEC Network
No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 6 Ole Miss/No. 11 Auburn/No. 14 Missouri — 9:30 p.m., SEC Network

Saturday, March 11 | Semifinals
Winners of quarterfinals 1 and 2 — 1 p.m., ESPN
Winners of quarterfinals 3 and 4 — 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Sunday, March 12 | Final
Semifinal winners — 1 p.m., ESPN

PREDICTIONS

Wednesday, March 8 | First round
No. 12 Mississippi State over No. 13 LSU
No. 11 Auburn over No. 14 Missouri

Thursday, March 9 | Second round
No. 9 Tennessee over No. 8 Georgia
No. 5 Alabama over No. 12 Mississippi State
No. 7 Vanderbilt over No. 10 Texas A&M
No. 6 Ole Miss over No. 11 Auburn

Friday, March 10 | Quarterfinals
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 8 Georgia
No. 5 Alabama over No. 4 South Carolina
No. 2 Florida over No. 7 Vanderbilt
No. 3 Arkansas over No. 6 Ole Miss

Saturday, March 11 | Semifinals
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 5 Alabama
No. 2 Florida over No. 3 Arkansas

Sunday, March 12 | Final
No. 1 Kentucky over No. 2 Florida

Other conference tournaments: ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | All 32

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