AccuScore: Giants, Padres in nearly a dead heat

AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one at-bat at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, making the playoffs, advancing in the playoffs and winning the World Series. Here is the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2010 MLB season with one week to play. Visit AccuScore.com for daily updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts updated twice a day.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston is not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and they tie for a wild-card spot in two of 10,000 simulations (not enough to be displayed with one decimal point). For all practical purposes the AL playoff teams are set. The Tampa Bay Rays are finishing with the best record in 70 percent of simulations.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

WEEK 25 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

20-Sep

27-Sep

% DIFF

WIN DIV

New York Yankees

99.6%

100.0%

0.4%

20.3%

Tampa Bay Rays

99.9%

100.0%

0.1%

79.7%

Minnesota Twins

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Texas Rangers

100.0%

100.0%

0.0%

100.0%

Boston Red Sox

0.5%

0.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

NATIONAL LEAGUE

The Rockies and Braves both had horrible 1-5 weeks and saw their playoff chances plummet. The Rockies are basically out of the picture with just a 0.4 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Braves still have a decent 56.7 percent chance of making the playoffs. Atlanta's remaining games are all at home, where they were dominant.

The Giants and Padres both were 4-2. While San Francisco has the higher probability of making the playoffs at 72.1 percent vs. 70.8 percent and have a half a game lead, it is actually the Padres with the slight edge in winning the NL West. These teams will be able to determine the NL West in the final series of the year when the Padres visit San Francisco. The Giants are currently favored in two of the three games.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

WEEK 25 REVIEW

PLAYOFF

% CHANCE

TEAM

20-Sep

27-Sep

% DIFF

WIN DIV

San Diego Padres

36.8%

70.8%

34.0%

50.8%

San Francisco Giants

47.1%

72.1%

25.0%

49.1%

Cincinnati Reds

98.5%

100.0%

1.5%

100.0%

Philadelphia Phillies

99.8%

100.0%

0.2%

99.8%

St. Louis Cardinals

1.5%

0.0%

-1.5%

0.0%

Colorado Rockies

27.2%

0.4%

-26.8%

0.1%

Atlanta Braves

89.1%

56.7%

-32.4%

0.2%