Where will Vanderbilt baseball go for SEC, NCAA postseason? Here's what projections say

Vanderbilt baseball slipped in the postseason projections Wednesday after being swept by Florida, but the Commodores are still projected as an NCAA Tournament regional host.

Vanderbilt (35-16, 17-10 SEC) was projected as the No. 8 overall seed by D1Baseball, hosting a regional with Indiana, Arizona State and Kent State. The Commodores' regional was paired with the Charlottesville Regional hosted by Virginia, paired with East Carolina, Northeastern and Penn.

The Baseball America projections do not project Vanderbilt as a national seed. There, the Commodores are projected as the No. 9 overall seed, hosting Washington, Troy and Alabama State. They are paired with the Conway Regional, consisting of Coastal Carolina, North Carolina, Arizona State and Fairfield.

The projections show the precarious line Vanderbilt occupies entering the final series of the regular season against Arkansas starting Thursday. Even the difference of one seed line, between No. 8 and No. 9, could mean the difference between hosting a super regional or not. (While national seeds in the top eight are guaranteed the right to host a super regional, non-national seeds may still be able to host a super regional if the top seed in the regional they are paired with does not advance.)

Home-field advantage will matter to the Commodores, as they have the SEC's best home conference record at 11-1, but are just 6-9 on the road.

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Hoover seeding scenarios

Vanderbilt will find itself in a much better position to earn a national seed if it finishes within the top four of the SEC. Currently, the Commodores sit in fourth place.

There's still a way for Vanderbilt to win the SEC and take the conference title outright, but the Commodores could finish as low as eighth.

If all scheduled games are played, winning one game against Arkansas would guarantee Vanderbilt finishes no lower than sixth. Tennessee and Auburn cannot get to 18 SEC wins. Although the Commodores hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Kentucky, it is possible that Vanderbilt could finish in a three-team tie with Florida and Kentucky if the Wildcats sweep the Gators this week. In that case, each team would be 3-3 against the other two and the tiebreaker would revert to record against the highest-seeded common opponent. That opponent would be South Carolina so long as the Gamecocks win at least one game against Tennessee this weekend, and Vanderbilt would finish above Florida in that tiebreaker. However, if the Vols sweep, they would be the highest-ranked common opponent and Vanderbilt would finish below both Kentucky and Florida.

If the Commodores win two games against Arkansas, they will finish no lower than fourth in the league and could still finish atop the SEC East and earn the second seed, but Florida would need to get swept by Kentucky for that to happen.

Sweeping Arkansas would put Vanderbilt no lower than second in the SEC East, and with that result the Commodores could win the division if Kentucky wins the series against Florida.

Can Vanderbilt still win the SEC?

Although unlikely, it is still possible for Vanderbilt to win or share the overall conference title, but it would need to sweep Arkansas to do so.

If the Commodores sweep Arkansas, Kentucky wins the series over Florida and LSU loses at least one game to Georgia, Vanderbilt would win the outright conference title.

The Commodores could also share the title with Florida if they sweep Arkansas and the Gators take two games against the Wildcats with LSU losing at least one. That scenario, though, would result in Vanderbilt dropping to the No. 3 seed in Hoover due to the head-to-head tiebreaker with Florida.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: See the Vanderbilt baseball postseason projections for SEC, NCAA